Public Policy Polling (D)
Clinton 45, McCain 44... McCain 49, Obama 41
Obama 44, Clinton 43
Although good news for Hillary in North Carolina (up 4% since the last PPP Poll) my criticisms of this poll are:
1) a 512 person sample size
2) High level of undecideds
3) Only 72% of Black vote for Obama
4) Only 56% of the White vote for Clinton.
Both polls seem to have irregular racial vote data for both Hillary and Obama as if they evened multiple races among both candidates (Obama doing better with Whites and Hillary with African Americans). That's probably expected with such a small sample size.
Posted on March 19, 2008 12:28 PM
Another key swing state where Hillary is more likely to beat McCain than Obama. We're seeing the same thing in FL and we'll surely see it in PA. Those are considered the 3 most important swing states in the presidential election and those 3 states have decided the last several elections. Even if Obama can bring a few smaller formerly Red states "into play" (which is becoming more doubtful), he won't be able to overcome wins for McCain in PA, OH, FL, and the other states where the demographics favor McCain over Obama. I'm sure the superdelegates are paying close attention.
Posted on March 19, 2008 12:32 PM
Obama is sinking like a rock. His 10 points lead in NC evaporates overnite. Hillary could sweep all of the states surrounding Ohio, i.e. PA, IN, WV, KY. Throwing in NC and PR, Obama is cooked. He has no one to blame but himself. He had a chance yesterday to disown anti-American ideology. But he didn't. He couldn't exactly blame people voting for Hillary because she is pro-American.
Posted on March 19, 2008 1:38 PM
Obama dropped only 3 points from the prior PPP poll in North Carolina, which was taken 3/3. If that's the worst that the Wright controversy does to Obama, then he'll be fine.
Posted on March 19, 2008 4:06 PM
3 points from the last PPP poll sure, but look at the polls from late feb: +14!!!
@Andrew in California:
I can understand you criticizing the 521 person sample size, but how can you criticize the other three things (white vote, black vote and undecideds)?
You can't criticize them. They are numbers which just turn out based on who the automatic calling system calls. Its not like they target a certain demographic in their calling procedures. Besides, the fact that 33% of the people surveyed are black it is actually HIGHER than the statewide percent of 21.6%. Similarly, they surveyed 58% women, which is probably higher than the statewide amount - its probably closer to 50%.
You cant criticize the polling place for these numbers. The first question they probably arent showing in this polling document is: "Q1: would you like to participate in a 5 minute poll for Public Policy Polling? Press 1 for yes, 2 for no". Im guessing these phone calls occur during the day (which was the case with the call I got from Franklin & Marshall for a PA poll), so you really cant expect a high number of men to answer the phone.
You can only criticize them for not adding a boatload more numbers to the call-list to generate more responses. The numbers they got fell where they fell - cant control that.
Posted on March 19, 2008 6:22 PM
Hey Hillary, not all of us suffer from White guilt. Some of us know that we are not responsible for the terrible sins of our fathers, and I pray to God for Her mercy
( yes, HER mercy), but we will not destroy America by supporting a Black power candidate. We love all races, we love all mankind, and we love you. You andf only you can end the war, you and only you can stop the recession, you and only you can heal this nation. May Her light shine on you, and guide you all the way to the White House. Now, i will go kiss my wife, hug my kids, and sing, I AM PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN, AND I LOVE AMERICA, GOD BLESS AMERICA AND ALL HER PEOPLE
Posted on March 19, 2008 7:06 PM
Tokar I can criticize the figures. I'm saying they are probably not very representative of the population of North Carolina based off of regional data. Its a sign of a bad poll, but I wouldn't go all the way to call it that. It would be interesting to see where they called in the state.
Posted on March 19, 2008 9:28 PM
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