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POLL: PPP Oregon (5/17-18)

Topics: Pollsters

Public Policy Polling (D)

Oregon
Obama 58, Clinton 39

 

Comments
carl29:

I told you so. I don't know if the spread will actually be this; however, Suffolk is making a fool of itself. It will be Obama by double digits in Oregon.

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Uri:

This sounds likely.

What I would like to see is an estimate of turnout since that would have more impact on the popular vote issue for which HRC is going.

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Nickberry:

I would not hang my hat on PPP polls. They really missed Pennsylvania where they had Obama winning by 3.

PPP (D) 4/19-20/08 2338 LV Clinton 46 Obama 49

And they also have Obama winning by 15% where people have already mailed their ballots (74%)... This compares to 9% (77%) for one poll and "even" in another.

I believe PPP is an automated poll.

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RS:

@Nickberry:
PPP has done very well in quite a few places - particularly WI, IN and NC. SUSA blew IN and NC.
However, now that SUSA's new OR poll also pretty much agrees with PPP... are you still sticking to Suffolk?

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hobetoo:

It would be good if all the pollsters made turnout estimates all the time -- I mean predicted total number of votes. But none of them seems to do so.

Would probably be a good issue for AAPOR to consider in its standards and practices for pre-election and primary election polling reports.

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ndirish11:

Why do the polls vary so much. Two Polls have Hillary within 5 points, SUSA has her down 12 when they are usually pro-Hillary and now PPP has Obama winning by 19? With these wild polls I can't even begin to predict how Oregon will turn out.

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cinnamonape:

The polls vary because they have different mixes of the demographics that they believe will vote. The Suffolk poll had something like 25% of the pool being 65 years of age and up...and allocating only 5% to those under 30 years of age. You do that and Hillary's voting numbers will go way up. Actually it's almost surprising with that mix she wasn't winning!

But those proportions are simply implausible...young and middle aged Democrats support Obama by almost 2:1 and they will be turning out in substantial numbers.

And, ironically, the bigger the differential in Kentucky for Clinton, the more likely it is that the Obama campaign on the West Coast will ratchet it up in the last hours.

This is the quandary her campaign faces...if she gets a huge turnout in Kentucky in order to build numbers for a popular vote argument...there will be an echo of that for Obama in Oregon.

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Tybo:

"young and middle aged Democrats support Obama by almost 2:1"

another falsehood

"And, ironically, the bigger the differential in Kentucky for Clinton, the more likely it is that the Obama campaign on the West Coast will ratchet it up in the last hours. "

it's a mail in campaign, so how is that possible?

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killias2:

Tybo,

It really depends on how you define young and middle aged, but the final exit polls are:

18-29

29% (C)

71% (O)

30-44

37% (C)

63% (O)

45-59

44% (C)

55% (O)

Like I said, depending on your definition, that's pretty close to 2:1 support for Obama.

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cinnamonape:

"And, ironically, the bigger the differential in Kentucky for Clinton, the more likely it is that the Obama campaign on the West Coast will ratchet it up in the last hours. "

Tybo:"it's a mail in campaign, so how is that possible?"

Simple...because while people CAN mail in their ballots...about 30-40% of the population still opts to vote at the polls that are open on the day of the election. If the reports of Kentucky suggested that Clinton was beating Obama by large numbers the Obama campaign would go out to college campuses, cafes, and other areas with lots of people and offer to drive them to their polling place, etc. My understanding is that a person could even be authorized to deliver a signed, sealed ballot.

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