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POLL: PPP Virginia (7/17-20)


Public Policy Polling (D)
7/17-20/08; 1,327 LV, 2.7%
Mode: IVR

Virginia
Obama 46, McCain 44
Sen: Warner (D) 57, Gilmore (R) 32

 

Comments
carl29:

There is something I really like about this poll: They are assuming equal % of Republicans and Democrats, 36% each, which I find very helpful since I don't like democratic-skewed samples that tend to overestimate the support for the democratic nominee, Obama in this case. My feeling is that democrats are going to turnout in greater numbers than republicans, making an Obama victory more likely, but I like to see the "worst scenario," with rep. and dem. turning out in equal numbers. It seems that again, independents are going to be key for whomever wins, althoug I think that Barack has a wild card with the AA turnout being greater than in 2004, the % used in this poll and their support for him which this poll underestimate in my opinion, 77% doesn't sound to me since Kerry won 87% in 2004.

Bottom line: Guys, this is going to be exciting!!

P.S: A friend of my husband's who is a diplomat from a foreign country was relocated to the US. His son is US citizen, born while he and his wife were students at the university of Texas, and for the first time ever the boy, who is now a college student, will have the honor of voting for president. Of course he is an Obama supporter, and guess what? They live in Virginia, baby!! The other day we were talking with his parents and they said that the boy and his friends were all fired up for Barack. Regardless of the outcome, I think that it is really nice to see young people engaged.

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Undecided:

I see that the map has Virginia as leaning Democrat. It seems like it should be a toss up. What is the criteria?

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marctx:

10% undecideds? I like the leaners that Rasmussan uses. I would guess the undecideds are hidden McCain supporters like they were hidden Clinton supporters in the primaries in many states. "Hidden Clinton Voters" is what Obama's BFF Chris Matthews used to call them. Obama supporters are not shy to say they support him, they want to shout it from rooftops.

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mirrorball:

Undecided: from the FAQ page (see link lower left of the map "where do we get these numbers?")

----

What is the basis of the classification of each race?
For 8 or more polls, we calculate a "confidence interval" around the trend estimate. This reflects the uncertainty in the estimate due to random noise in the polling data.

If a race shows a lead that is outside the 95% confidence interval, then we classify this as a "strong" lead. If the lead is between the 68% and 95% confidence intervals, then we classify it as a "lean". If the race is inside the 68% confidence interval, then we classify the race as "too close to call".

For races with fewer than eight polls, we use the same cutoff points for the confidence interval, but base that interval around either the regression estimate (for 4-7 polls) or the mean of the polls (for 1-3 polls). With few polls, we use a confidence interval based on the average sample size for the available polls.

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carl29:

It seems that the majority of those undecided come from independent voters, 20% of them. Party members are pretty much decided with 84% of Republicans for McCain and 11% for Obama. Democrats are backing Obama at 83% and 10% for McCain. From the democratic party just 7% are undecided and 5% from the republican. However, 20% of independents are up for grabs. There is where the fight is going to be. In 2004 Bush carried independents by 10%, 54% vs. 44%.

There are some "fun facts": Both candidates have reached the support of Bush or Kerry among party members. For example Bush was backed by 95% of Republicans; however, McCain only reaches 84%. Obama also underperforms Kerry among democrats as well, with Kerry getting 92% vs. Obama's 83%. Nonetheless, McCain problems don't end with republican voters. Independents haven't warmed to the new "maverick-turned-right-wing" McCain.

Something that should worry the McCain people is the fact that men, very supportive of republicans, are not backing McCain at the same level they did with Bush. Let me explain, Obama is 1% up among men, 46% vs. 45% with 9% undecided. If we give McCain each and evey of those undecided, his numbers among men go up to 54% vs. Obama's 46%, an 8% advantage among this group. However, Bush won men by almost 20% in 2004 against Kerry. I have the gut feeling that Obama's advantage among men has to do with independent men.

P.S: This is why Obama cannot afford Hillary. If Hillary is on the ticket, those independent guys are going to run to McCain is the blink of an eye.

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mago:

The overall result is plausible...but McCain gets 16% of the black vote in this poll, which would be a stunningly good performance for any Republican and against Obama is simply absurd.

It will be shocking if McCain gets 5% of the black vote.

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onelightonvoice:

LOL - 16% of the AA vote! ROTFLMAO! He won't get 6%.

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onelightonvoice:

carl - your analysis is spot on, and I see now why you keep saying you want equal party id (as a worst case scenario). makes sense.

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Undecided:

There is a large population of retired and active military in Virginia, so maybe that is a factor in the 16% African American vote.

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Undecided:

To be clear... African American preference for McCain at 16%.

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carl29:

There are some things that just take common sense. I mean, I am far from being a political genious but somehow Obama getting less support than Kerry among AA is just plain silly. Whoever looks for explanations about something so ridiculous, is making a real fool of him or herself.

But this is no the first time we have seen this. I remember when those crazy polls came out of North Carolina during the primaries, showing Obama losing support, even among AA, and those poor Hillary supporters jumping all over the polls trying to "rationalizing" something so obviously wrong. Don't believe me? Go and look at the comments. "It was because Rev. Wrigth or the tax holiday or Bill campainging in the state." The reality is the reality. Obama swiped with the AA vote.

Obama will get above 90% of the AA vote in every state. You can take it to the bank!! It doesn't take a genious or astrologist to see it.

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carl29:

I love to remember the good old days: Some comments about why according to some crazy pollsters Obama's support among AA was falling. You know, "blacks leaving Obama." Here are some comments from the most fierce Hillary supporters, now PUMAS. I picked Nickberry, the most hillarious Hillary supported. By the way, where is he? Do you know something about him Undecided? I'm just asking. In case someone "sees" him, say hi!

Nickberry: On NC polls
"Bill Clinton has been hitting the rural counties and a good turnout there bodes well for Hillary."

Nickberry: On a NC and IN poll favoring HC.
"Look at how the undecided voters are trending toward Hillary. This seems to be the way things go in the few days before the election... albeit maybe sooner this time because of Obama's Wright problem being in the news.

Obama keeps around 50 points in North Carolina but Hillary is gaining.

And in Indiana, Hillary's numbers are also edging up but Obama's remain about the same.
It is the undecided vote closing the gaps."

Nickberry:
"The NC polls definitely show an erosion in Obama's lead... Looks like undecided are going for Hillary."

Nickberry is a real political analyst; I miss him enlighting us.


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Paul:

This poll which has VA at Obama +2 is consistent with RCP average at Obama +1; is not consistent with 538 (which does not include this poll) which has McCain projected at 1.4; and is consistent with pollster.com trend at Obama +2.6. Virginia does appear to be a toss-up state.

If Obama wins every Kerry state plus Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, he has 273 electoral votes and does not need Virginia, Ohio or Nevada (an in fact does not need NH - a Kerry state). An Obama win in Virginia would mean he would need to win only one of Iowa, New Mexico or Colorado, again assuming he picks up all Kerry states. 538 has Virginia the 4th most important state and we can see why once we start running the scenarios. As to Obama winning all Kerry states, the fly in the ointment would be NH which then forces Obama to pick up another state.

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carl29:

I'm having a ball guys!!! Google Nickberry at pollster.com and you are going to have fun with his analysis. This guy is a genious!!!

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Undecided:

What is all this BS about Nickberry? What does that have to do with this poll? Possibly you are spending too much time on the internet?

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