Pollster.com

PPP's poll (with a large sample) shows Obama with a 2-point edge over McCain in VA. This poll is consistent with others--all 5 August polls of VA (by 5 different pollsters) show a close race there. This poll is the second in a row to show Obama ahead. An InsiderAdvantage poll showed a tie. A Rasmussen poll showed Obama up 1 w/o leaners and McCain up 1 with leaners. A SurveyUsa poll showed McCain up 1 (assuming McCain wins 14% of the African-American vote, which is unlikely).

According to PPP, McCain currently has 11% of the African-American vote. Will McCain do better among African-Americans than Hillary did in the primary? She won only 10% of this demographic.

VA results on election night should be known before Colorado results. If Obama wins VA, his supporters will be confident; if not, they will anxiously await CO results--and perhaps NM, NV, MT, and even AK results as well.

Crosstabs on the PPP poll show that polling numbers in this race are unlikely to change much--90% of likely voters in VA have made up their minds. Obama might have solidified his support in the state with his two-day visit last week. Also, given senate candidate Mark Warner's popularity, reverse coattails are a possibility.

Virgnia and Colorado are the two tripping swing states that Obama will win in November.

There is no mistake that the convention is in Denver and that Mark Warner will be speaking at the convention. In my opinion, Obama will win Colorado and Virgnia, but lose Ohio & Florida.

White voters in Colorado and Northern Virgnia are more friendly to Obama's message for change. He should be able to get about 45% of the white vote in Colorado and close to 40% in Virgnia. The reason these numbers are optimistic is because 25% of the vote is non-white in Virgnia and 20% in Colorado.

djneedle83:

I had forgotten about Warner's speaking slot.

I second your analysis.

The analysis is good. The timing of these polls could not be better.

Not sure about 18-29 equalling 15% of the likely electorate if I read this number correctly. My book on Virginia gives me 19% in of the 2004 turnout.

Have I got that wrong?

The analysis is good. The timing of this and the Colorado poll could not be better.

Not sure about 18-29 equalling 15% of the likely electorate if I read this number correctly. My book on Virginia gives me 19% in of the 2004 turnout.

Have I got that wrong?

Obama +2 is a good number for him. I assume Biden will just about live in Northern Virginia. Kerry states + IA + NM + VA is a win for Obama, and he can still lose NH and not worry about Colorado.

As per CNN's exit poll, 18-29 was 17% in 2004:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/VA/P/00/epolls.0.html

Roughly right Thoughtful, in 2004 the electorate was 17% 18-29, and 10% 65+ (at least according to the cnn 2004 exit poll). While this poll was 15% 18-29 and 15% 65+. Also the electorate was 21% AA and 54% female compared to this polls 20% and 52%. However this poll's party id advantage to the democrats (+6) is probably too high. So I would guess that combining the demographic information comes out about even.

Paul:

I've been thinking the same thing about Biden; but a commenter living in Virginia has insisted (on another thread) that Biden will have no impact there.

@John

Oddly this is a likely voter model so I don't know where they got their demographic model from?

Somehow I think it is dangerous to assume that the AA % turnout and 18-29 turnout will drop in this election.

There are more Dems in Virginia than 4 years ago. So I don't know whether it's +6%.

I don't think Veep does anything for Obama in Virginia. Warner's coat tails. Kaine and Webb do much more. The northern Virginian vote is strongly Democratic already.

I am not entirely sure about the PPP methodology. As they use IVR, they will probably oversample and then random eliminate some respondents in their poll in order to reach certain demographic targets. The targets themselves will be certain amount of reasoned guesswork on their part.
As they have had the AA% turnout at 20% for their last 3 polls, I would imagine they are using the state's numbers.
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/51000.html

In terms of the age groups breakdown, there has been a little bit (but not much) of movement in their last 3 polls, so I would guess they have certain margins rather than a specific number.
I agree with you, that with the ground game and euthasism that the Obama campaign and Virginia democrats are generating, that both the (relative) youth vote and the AA vote will be at the very least the same as in 2004, but pollster really hate to make assumptions in these areas, just look at zogby in CA primary where their guess about the hispanic turnout was badly off the mark and were roundly mocked.

For the party id, I do not think they weigh at all, and just let the chips fall where they may. You are of course right that the dems number will be up this year but I do not think it will quite reach +6, maybe +2 to +4.

Hi folks. I've been following Pollster.com for months but just signed up to comment.

No question that Virginia overall is becoming a more purple state. I still think Obama will have a hard time winning here given the fact that Webb, even after the Allen implosion, still won very, very narrowly and Webb was far more popular downstate and in the Valley and SW than Obama appears to be.

I don't buy the Mark Warner "reverse coattails" notion at all. I've yet to see that phenomenon play out in a presidential election in modern times.

I'd also like to know how any of the pollsters are norming for the military vote in Virginia and especially the large Navy contingent out of Norfolk and Virginia Beach.

Nice to see Virginia take on a big role in the national focus again after being taken for granted for a long time even though I'm writing this as a McCain supporter. I also agree with the notion that if we see the Old Dominion going for Obama on election night we can probably turn in early knowing he'll be the next president. I think that goes in reverse as well as regards Michigan.

I believe Obama's margin of victory in Virginia will be exactly two points. If he actually reaches 40% of the white vote in Virginia, his margin will be higher.

Every major pollster throughout the primary overestimated the African American support for Hillary before each election day and it's no different in this case. Obama will carry 94%+ of the African American vote nationwide. In Virginia, he could even get higher than that.

@BillinArlington.

One major difference: George Allen secured between 15 and 20% of the black vote and black turnout was relatively low in 2006.

Obama getting 94%+ of the black vote this year and a higher turnout should more than offset his lack of popularity in Shenandoah and the Southwestern portions of the state - on top of the fact that just in the past two years, Northern and Southeastern Virginia have been trending even bluer than in 2006.

Might Biden, with his strong foreign policy credentials, help Obama win some of the military vote? Biden's son is in the military.

I think Virginia is a state where Romney would hurt McCain by depressing the conservative evangelical turnout. Many conservative evangelicals believe Mormonism is a cult--one of the reasons Huckabee won Iowa. Huckabee also did well in Virginia.

I agree with BillinArlingtonVA about the tight race. I also live in VA. I know the polls favor Obama in Virginia right now, but it still seems unlikely that he'll be able to pull off the state. Yes, we've had 2 democratic governors in a row now and could easily have 2 democratic senators so it's possible.

As I mentioned on another thread, Biden will have no impact here. Remember, he's from a northern state, and Virginia is still very much a Southern state.

Could Biden bring in more of the military vote? Perhaps, but I just don't see the VP (for either party) having a big impact on votes. And does anybody really think that Biden's military credentials will sway a lot of military people away from McCain's military credentials? Those in the military who vote for Obama will be doing it because they want Obama and his policies, not because Biden has a son who is about to ship out to Iraq.

I agree that if Obama wins Virginia, it's probably over.

By the way, we're getting bombarded with ads here already. My nine year-old son the other night was able to do replay both McCain and Obama ads verbatim...it was quite funny...so I asked him who he'd vote for. He said, "Neither of them is ready to lead."

Thank you, Virginians, for these first-hand accounts. It sounds like it will be a very close race there.

How Biden is being used on a state by state basis is nothing more than protecting PA. Scranton, Scranton, Scranton. That's all I hear.

One thing that should not be left unsaid about Virginia is long lines at polling places. In '00 I stood in line for two hours on a freezing morning to vote at Washington-Lee H.S. here in Arlington. I got an absentee ballot in '04 for just that reason.

In '06 the lines here again were pretty long for the Webb/Allen race which I voted in person.

Long lines can have a depressing effect on turnout in the urban areas as can weather. Two things to keep in mind on the morning of Nov. 4th.