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POLL: Press Register Alabama , PPP (D) North Carolina GEs


Press Register/University of S. Alabama

Alabama
McCain 58, Clinton 29... McCain 59, Obama 31

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Public Policy Polling (D)

North Carolina
McCain 48, Clinton 43... McCain 47, Obama 42

 

Comments
Tim K:

Isn't Obama supposed to be more competitive than Clinton in "red states" ?

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Shane:

Tim K,

These states may demonstrate little difference between the two, but there have been around 7 or 8 polls that have shown Obama doing VASTLY better in some states than Clinton. Check Rasmussen and SurveyUSA for some of those. I'm not talking about minor differences either. There are around 4 or so polls that show Obama doing 20 percentage points better than Clinton.

About the only poll going the other direction is a Rasmussen Florida poll, which shows Clinton and Obama both losing Florida, but Obama losing it worse.

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fourth:

First, no one said he'd do better in EVERY red state; second, PPP hasn't given me a reason to trust their numbers this primary season; third, Obama has room to grow in NC as he hasn't ever campaigned there. Neither has Clinton of course, but the trouble with being so "experienced" is that almost everyone has made up their minds about you. Either way, McCain starting well under 50 in NC would be great news for Democrats.

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polls:

The Press-Register/USA poll is notoriously Republican biased. They regularly undershoot black turnout and overshoot Republican IDs. In this poll, you have 45 percent ID themselves as Republicans and 32 as Democrats. Either there's been a major shift in the past 6 months, or this is just an unbalanced poll. In the past two years, most polls have found party ID's even in the mid/high thirties with independent ID's around 30.

(These independents have trended heavily towards Republicans, but still strongly self ID as independents.)

That's not to say that McCain won't win, just that this poll tells me the race is probably closer to 55-40 than it is 60-30.

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B:

The intensely red states will stay red in 2008 even if Obama gets the nomination.

If Obama gets the nomination, these are the 2004 Red States I say would go Blue in 2008:

- Iowa
- Colorado
- New Mexico
- Nevada
- Florida or Ohio...not both
- Missouri


These states could go blue:

- Louisiana
- Tennessee
- Kentucky
- West Virginia
- Virginia


Obama will definitely win one deep south state. I'm skeptical on Ohio. The other red states are going to stay red for some time.

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Shane:

B,

I'm still sketchy about Ohio OR Florida going Dem. I think the last two elections have shown that the Dems can't just assume one or the other will go Dem.. we've got to get beyond the typical borders.

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Anonymous:

I'm surprised Alabama is as big a McCain victory as listed. As already noted, this poll may be skewed. The NC result is encouraging for Democrats. Down 5 with 9-11 undecided this far out is very doable. If we're competitive in NC, I'd think it's a tie or better in Virginia.

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Joe Conason:

"Isn't Obama supposed to be more competitive than Clinton in "red states" ?"

That's the kool-aid the Obama-bots want you to believe.

Better yet? Take a look at Florida. McCain +6 against Clinton. McCain +16 against Obama.

There is very little evidence to suggest that Obama will turn traditionally red states blue. But the Obama cult would have you think otherwise.

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tom:

So, I guess the "black" vote will get creamed in all those southern states that Obama won...and he is most likely going to loose Ohio AND Florida.....Obama is toast, he cant win the big states, only wins very solid red states, and can only win the red states when just the Dems vote! Clinton is killing him in Ohio, still, by 20+ pts, also the same in PA. If he cant beat her in Ohio, how in the world will he beat McCain.

I can already see the McCain adds, Obama doesnt pay close attention to details(cue the tape where he states that) Obama is foreign to foreign policy(i am sure he has stated something like that also), Obama was doing drugs when McCain was doing something brave(cue the dark grainy tape of someone doing lines)...Obama is a wonderful talker, but he is all talk no action. McCain knows how to reach across the aisle....also, cue Obama having dinner was the Iran President and Osama...(since he wants to talk to our enemies)

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Robert in Cali:

Polls for Huckabee showed him far less than he finished in every state where he had more than 10% in polls. I don't trust media, I don't trust polls. They know all too well that we do not have a good way to validate.
The only time voters know there is fraud are in instances like Kenya, where 143% of the population voted. Or in an oblast of easter Ukraine, in which 99% of registered voters voted, and all for the communist candidate... but street surveys suggested about 41% actually voted, and many for the opposition.

How "checks and balances" the people who report the polls and counts?

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Shane:

Joe Conason,

I appreciated your use of the ONE Rasmussen poll that gives Clinton an edge, while ignoring the 5 or so Rasmussen polls and 3 or 4 SurveyUSA polls that show Obama doing significantly better than Clinton in various states.

Pshh.. Obamabots. Sure there are immature morons supporting both candidates, but Clinton supporters seem to be operating on naught but faith and selective hearing. Anytime Obama is ahead in anything anywhere its because the pollster is PrObama or Republican (and part of a secret cabal of fake Obamacans who want to get the "strong" candidate out of the race) or always wrong or favoring the wrong statistics, etc. etc. The second a Clinton has a lead anywhere, that poll is instantly taken as the absolute truth on any subject.

I wish to reiterate that I think both sides have their morons and their calm, intelligent supporters, but the consistency of selective hearing, racism, and "Obama = cult" talk from Clinton fans is really laughable.

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tom:

It is going to be sad when(hopefully it doesnt happen) Obama is the Dems ticket and reality hits and he has an uphill battle to win the White House, it is going to come down to Fl and Ohio, Florida vets will give McCain and advantage. I dont see Obama winning any southern state, so he will have to win the bigs(I assume CA will be like NC typically is, vote DEM no matter who the candidate is). I am from NC, and there is no way that Billary will carry this state and doubtful Obama will....there are more registered Dems than republicans, but these dems are Jesse Helm dems...

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Shane:

Tom,

"Clinton is killing him in Ohio, still, by 20+ pts, also the same in PA."

I hate to disagree with you, but the newest polls out of Ohio are showing a FAR closer race. Same with Texas. If I was a betting man, I would bet for a de facto tie on March 4th. I think Obama will win more delegates in Texas than Clinton by a fair margin (this includes caucus delegates that might not get counted right away) due to their funky primary rules, and I expect Clinton to win Ohio by relatively small margin.

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Joe Conason:

You misread me.

Clinton has no edge.

But the "Obama will turn red states blue," claim is laughable.

Yes, it is a cult that Obama is running. Pundits left and right have observed/noted this; not just me.

I do not think Clinton will win either the primary or the general. So stop your assumptions about what I said. I merely pointed out that Obama is still going to get his ass kicked in traditional red states.

Period.

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tom:

It is no shock that Obama is doing better than Billary in Texas, since it is part caccus(sp). That is another state that the Dems have NO shot in in the general. Look at past presidential races, and look at what states Billary won vs Obama, most of Obama's states are a lock for the GOP in the general...and so he will have to win the states that the majority of Dems didnt vote for him in the primary. I will throw in NY along with CA as voting for any Dem no mater who it is.

Just compare the Gore states vs the Bush States or the Kerry states vs the Bush states, and you can clearly see that Obama will have a uphill battle. He has no chance in any southern states.

The latest polls for Ohio and PA show Billary 20pts ahead. Remember, in the general it is winner take all, so what if Obama loses a southern state by 10 instead of 20, does it really mater in the end?

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Tim K:

Shane:

I've been paying attention to these sorts of things just long enough to know that polls this far out from the election are meaningless. I was just pointing out that not only are the polls meaningless, they are also inconsistent.

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Steve:

Several polls (and exit polls) have shown that Obama does better with independents and republicans than Clinton. It is only logical this means he would be a better general election candidate. Democrats will vote democrat, period.

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John Tucker:

tom & Joe Conason -

WINNERS OF THE DUMBEST COMMENT OF THE DAY AWARD!!

I have heard a lot of moronic statements, but you guys take the cake. You guys are so up billary's bum-hole, plain facts escape you.

First of all, Obama DOESN'T have an easy battle to win Alabama or Mississippi. However, he may win South Carolina AND North Carolina due to the large AA turnout and more progressive white vote in those states.

REMEMBER THIS IMPORTANT FACT:

Anywhere Obama has campaigned at-length (1-2 weeks) and put ad money into, he has won handily. He didn't do either in the 2 states mentioned in the poll. Super Tuesday put him at a ridiculous disadvantage since there were too many states and too little time. However, give him time and he is a MACHINE. He is destroying Clinton everywhere. Look at the Texas poll and the new Ohio poll. He has barely started campaigning there. When you don't know someone - you generally go with the names you have heard - Clinton and McCain. But once people get to know Obama - well....WATCH OUT! Just ask your queen Hillary about that. She has been spanked, what, 8 times in a row now?

When the public sees a near-dead McCain and a vibrant Obama - this will be no contest. I see a landslide in November.

You guys are Clinton mouthpieces obviously. It's okay - some CNN people are just like you. Don't worry, it will all be over soon.....hush now....hush...and sleep...sleep...good. Good night billary, it was fun knowin' ya! Ok, maybe not so much.

btw, Hawaii is a done deal today:

http://www.touchtonepoll.com/

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Certh:

Joe Conason - you aren't too bright if you think Obama isn't going to get the nomination. By the way, how much would you like to wager that Colorado will be a BLUE state this year? Hmm, afraid to put your money where your mouth is......typical. Or have you already wasted your hard earned $2300 on Hill-Billy?!!? HAHAHAHA! Money well spent my friend.

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Joe Conason:

Good Jesus Certh, you obviously have a reading comprehension problem. What part of "I do not think Clinton will win either the primary or the general," did you take to mean that "you think Obama isn't going to get the nomination?"

Are you just stupid?

Or brainwashed to the point where reading skills are no longer at your disposal?

I have heard that Colorado would turn "blue" for many years now. Has not yet. I'd give Obama a better than 50% chance there. As far as wagering, I am against gambling as it is a sin. Moreover, I would not make a bet with an obviously disturbed person such as yourself. I would agree that Colorado could be blue. It won't make up for Florida being red though. You'd need a few Colorados for that. Hell, can Obama even win California against McCain? He couldn't win it in the primary and he does horrible among Hispanics, a group McCain does well with given his moderate stance on immigration and Arizona connection.

Certh, bottom line. Get some reading comprehension under your belt. And keep sipping the kool-aid. It's refreshing this time of year.

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David :

Shane-

Your analysis is spot on. I agree with you 100%. Obama wins Texas (# of delegates anyway), and hill-billy *may* win Ohio- but at this point would you really want to bet against Obama winning that too? I wouldn't. This puppy is over.

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The General:
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Mike:

LOL. Everyone, take a look at all of the negative posts about Obama. Look carefully at the use of language, spelling errors, grammar, and writing patterns. Looks to me like the same spinster with multiple ID's.

GROW UP!

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Bree:

Hey look everyone, the racist known as "The General" has decided to homnor us with his idiotic opinions. Welcome general! One question though. Isn't it hard to type wearing a white bed sheet over your head?

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Ray:

"The only states that mean anything are the states I win." --HRC

That pretty much sums up everything she has said. She dismisses Red states, then puts her firewall on TX (which no Dem can carry in November). She talks up her big performance in stalwart Dem states like CA, NY, and NJ but those are all states that Obama will also be able to carry in November. She has no chance in CO, VA, SC, LA or perhaps WV, but Obama does. It appears that Obama may not be able to carry FL--and it probably doesn't matter, Gore was a state away in 2000 without FL or OH and so was Kerry in 2004. I don't think Clinton can carry FL either, incidentally. Other states like AR, NH, and NM will likely go Dem no matter who the candidate is.

It would appear that Obama has a more manageable road through the Electoral College than Clinton, more options and more ways to win--despite the racism that will plague in some southern states (that no Dem would win irrespective of the candidate).

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The General:

As the great Pink Floyd says, "divided we fall!" How sweet the Democrat infighting is.

Blacks will riot if Billary wins.

Republicans will flock to the polls to defeat her.

If Obama wins, he will lose hispanics and old folks to McCain, as well as the big states like California, Florida, and Texas, with tons of latinos and bluehairs. It won't be a blow out win, but McCain will be all over Obama on his naive stances.

I hope the infighting continues though. I am pulling for Billary to live until April 22 so you guys will be in civil war by then.

ROFLMFAO!!!!!!!

Hey Defeatocrats... picked a candidate yet?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

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Jon Revere:

"REMEMBER THIS IMPORTANT FACT:

Anywhere Obama has campaigned at-length (1-2 weeks) and put ad money into, he has won handily. He didn't do either in the 2 states mentioned in the poll. Super Tuesday put him at a ridiculous disadvantage since there were too many states and too little time. However, give him time and he is a MACHINE. He is destroying Clinton everywhere. Look at the Texas poll and the new Ohio poll. He has barely started campaigning there. When you don't know someone - you generally go with the names you have heard - Clinton and McCain. But once people get to know Obama - well....WATCH OUT!"

Agree totally. Obama has shown that time and again.

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Certh:

hey general-

Are you sure McCain is still ALIVE??????


Someone check his pulse.

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The General:

So MO was never proud of her country in the past? How decidedly anti-American, unpatriotic, and ridiculous. I find her comments deeply offensive. What a piece of trash she is. Like Billary, only more offensive.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/02/michelle_obama_first_time_shes.html

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The General:

"Are you sure McCain is still ALIVE??????"

Oh look, another person who hates the military and veterans. I mean, look another Defeatocrat!

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michael:

"- Iowa
- Colorado
- New Mexico
- Nevada
- Florida or Ohio...not both
- Missouri"

Ah, more from the Obama-crack brigade.

-Nevada, New Mexico and Florida have high hispanic populations, who have been generally resistant to Obama (and don't give me that crap about how he has made a breakthrough - for one he has momentum, but none of the post Feb-5 states have had many Hispanics anyhow).

-Florida is (if Obama is going to win), going to have been disenfranchised by the Democrats.

-As for Ohio, there you run into Obama's problems with poor whites. If Obama can't beat Clinton there (and every poll indicates he can't) in the Democratic primary, why do you think it is an especially good state for him.

Missouri is always a crapshoot, Iowa will probably go for Obama and Colorado is anybody's guess. I suppose you could also win one swing state with the right VP, but then so can John McCain.

Head to head polls coming out right now are not particularly realistic - considering that there is a campaign going on on the Democratic side, and essentially no campaign on the Republican side.

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michael:

Just remember - almost every red state Obama has won was either a caucus state or had a significant black population. Those factors will not translate into the kind of shift in the general election, because caucuses involve few people, and because, while African Americans are a crucial voting bloc in the Democratic primaries, they already vote overwhelmingly for the Dems anyway in national elections (voter turnout might go up, but that isn't going to flip the south).

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Bree:

General, just go back to your KKK meeting, will you? No one wants to hear what you have to say, you racist piece of garbage.

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polls:

Take it somewhere else, people. I'm for Obama, but you Obama people are just as bad as the Hillary people. Go find something productive to do with your time.

I made a meaningful comment about the polls, and can't discuss it with anyone knowledgeable because of this jackassery.

Embarrassing. This is starting to devolve to Ron Paul levels.

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tom:

I live in NC, I am sorry, but a african american will not win NC in the presidential primary...we have also a gay Dem running against Dole...we will see how that goes(nowhere, even the Dem party is ignoring him). The Dems in NC are Jesse Helm dems...if Bill couldnt carry NC the first time(the first "black" president" Obama will not...like I said, 5 pt loss is still a loss when it is winner take all. McCain could tap the governor of MS as his VP or the governor of SC(who is popular). Dems are a minority in both of them states.

Yall Obamites really are looking through rose colored glasses if you think he will win any southern state...yall forget there are ALOT of republicans in those states, thus why the NEVER go Dem, usually is is a L by 10+ pts or more...again, so what if it is single digits, still a L.....Obama would have to convince Huckalbee(sp) supporters to support him...hahahaha, yeah right...

Clinton has a better shot in the general if you go state by state. Obama, if he gets a nod, needs to camp in Fl, he is so far behind and there are lots o military retirees that will be McCain supporters.

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