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POLL: Public Policy Polling (D) Iowa, South Carolina


Two new Public Policy Polling (D) automated surveys of likely caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 5/30; press release 6/4) and likely primary voters in South Carolina (conducted 5/31; press release 6/4) find:

  • Among 1,238 Democrats in Iowa, former Sen. John Edwards (at 31%) leads both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama (both at 17%) in a statewide caucus.

  • Among 774 Republicans in Iowa, former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 31%) leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (15%), former Speaker Newt Gingrich (10%), Sen. John McCain (9%), and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (8%) in a statewide caucus.

  • Among 531 Democrats in South Carolina, Obama edges out Clinton (34% to 31%) in a statewide primary; Edwards trails at 15%.

  • Among 630 Republicans in South Carolina, Thompson (at 27%) leads Romney (16%), McCain (15%), Giuliani (14%), and Gingrich (11%) in a statewide primary.

UPDATED: Cross-tabs Uploaded

 

Comments
Chris S.:

These are some weird results, to say the least, especially on the GOP side. (Thompson at 27% in SC? That's *way* above his showing in any previous SC poll.) I assume these results were leaked to you, and PPP will be releasing them publicly soon, because I can't find this poll on their website?

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Chris S.:

These are some weird results, to say the least, especially on the GOP side. (Thompson at 27% in SC? That's *way* above his showing in any previous SC poll.) I assume these results were leaked to you, and PPP will be releasing them publicly soon, because I can't find this poll on their website?

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Eric:

PPP sent the Iowa and South Carolina results as a press release. In the past, they've uploaded the pdf files to their site within a few hours.

I've updated the post to note this was sent as a release.

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I cannot vouch for the S.C. polls, but the Iowa poll is consistant with other reputable polls.

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Chris S.:

Which other Iowa polls have McCain and Giuliani in 4th and 5th place....and in single digits?

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Ordinary Coloradan:

"Which other Iowa polls have McCain and Giuliani in 4th and 5th place....and in single digits?"

My guess is: Ones that accurately portray conservatives that drive the grass roots in the Republican party. McCain and immigration = loser, and Giuliani's social liberalism - thats enough to sink them now with a charismatic conservative entering the race (Thompson), and a well monied one already in the race who has been chipping away for months at those guys (Romney).

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David:

With the large changes in the presidential candidate polls the last couple of weeks, I'm interested to see how the consolidated version comes out. The last update to that one was May 20th. Anyone know when we'll see the next one?

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Eric:

David, if you are speaking about our national primary charts, we did an update yesterday (and will most likely do another one today) that can be found here. You may have to refresh your browser to see the updates.

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Anonymous:

No the Iowa democratic poll not consistent with other polls. ARG had Hillary ahead by six points in their last Iowa survey. Others had it a dead heat. Something is way off with this one.

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Anonymous:

ARG's last Iowa poll, done in the last week, had:

Hillary 31%
Edwards 25%
Obama 11%

This one has

Edwards 31&
Hillary 17%
Obama 17%

ARG is very meticulous and reputable and run their iowa and new hampshire polling every months and their numbers have been consistent. I think the problem is with the Public Policy Polling poll. Remember this is a democratic consultant poll, is this Edwards private pollster?

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Chris S.:

It's ARG that has been discrepant with other polls when it comes to the Dem. race in Iowa. They've consistently shown Clinton ahead there, whereas most other Iowa polls have Edwards ahead (albeit not by as big a margin as we have in this PPP poll).

It's not the Democratic side that I find to be weird in this PPP poll. It's the Republican side. No other SC poll has shown Thompson above 13%, and now, suddenly, he's at 27%? And Giuliani and McCain have suddenly dropped into the single digits in Iowa, while every other poll has had them in the high teens or low twenties?

Not that it's impossible that there would be that much movement in a week, but I'll take this poll with a grain of salt until I see more polls to confirm the result.

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Flannery C.:

Yeah, ARG is accurate. They also seem closer to the other polls than PPP. PPP is outrageous. Look at South Carolina!

ARG
Clinton:34
Edwards:30
Obama:18

PPP
Obama:34
Clinton:31
Edwards:15
-3 for Clinton, -15 for Edwards, and +16 for Obama? This poll is insane.

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blue south:

ARG has horrible polls. They consistently show Hillary way above where everyone else shows her.

PPP has never polled for Edwards as far as I know, and Edwards is the only candidate who didnt spend money on polling in the first quarter.

However, this is the first time PPP has polled either state's presidential primary as far as I know.

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Sorry for the lack of results on our webpage. We are currently moving locations and so our internet capabilities have been hampered for the last week or so.

Blue South is right, we have never worked for the Edwards campaign, nor any other presidential campaign. If we were hired by a presidential campaign we would stop releasing polls like this, due to conflicts of interest.

All of our polls have shown very high numbers for Fred Thompson-- Iowa, SC and NC. It could be a bump from his non-announcement announcement or maybe Thompson supporters are just more eager to answer IVR polls!

Any other questions?

Justin Guillory
Public Policy Polling

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