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POLL: Puerto Rico Dems


Research & Research

Puerto Rico
Clinton 50, Obama 37

 

Comments

I emailed the author of the El Nuevo Dia article featuring the poll and he said the dates covered were 3/31-4/5. Here's my writeup on the race on Election Inspection.

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Dan:

This is a fascinating result, I think. Given that Obama has never visited the island (yet) and has no staff or offices there (so far as I know), being down by only 13 points should be pretty encouraging for him--especially given the name recognition of the Clintons and the visit of Bill last week. The Clintons are looking for a major blow-out in PR, and this poll suggests it might not happen.

I'd be curious to know (from someone who can translate the article) what the cross-tabs or internals are.

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airhawk86:

Even in PR everyone knows Clinton and Obama by now. So I dont think this would be "good" news for Obama in that sense, because he is not unknown. But, it is good news for him because Clinton does need to blow him out. This primary isnt for two months through, so this poll will be greatly affected by NC,PA,IN ETC

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lsmakc:

puerto rico? hmm, whatever.
as for pa, the trend is widening for clinton. i make no bones about preference here, i think it rather important to label yourself if you bear a label. despite mark's cartography for PA, eyeballing the dots suggests he is underdrawing this - the same problem he had heading into the ohio primary where a regular person could see the line was misplaced. considerably. we felt kinda comfortable with the bad drawing
seeing the forest through the dots.

anyhoo, the story that is finally emerging with brave folks is the misogyny E John addresses. rather than whine about this, it would be better to talk about two stories: the first is a clear cut short story, with a beginning middle and now, an end in sight. this is the story of black slavery in america. it is easier to read and to write because of its clearly marked trajectory.

the other story is one that has no historical beginning. it has no middle crescendo and there is no possible distinct historical and symbolic
resolution in a single gesture. we cannot write this story because we cannot end it. it is a deep, penetrating, primeval fact of life.

in america, we like short iconic fables. obama's is the story we have the power to write because of its distinct bracketed time line.

it's nice that we want this. it's sad that the larger story, the longer story and therefore the fuzzier one is the one that we in america
shy away from. but at least notice it. think about it.

i know you'll call this a rant. it isn't. it's about stories and our limitations to embrace anything that is not simple and defined.

if she wins PA

enjoy!!! let the arrows fly:>)

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Andrew_in_California:

I'd still say that Puerto Rico does not know who Obama is as the island has traditionally ignored mainland politics for its own brand of very divisive politics. I don't know much about "Research and Research" and where they are located but I wouldn't trust a polling group from the Caribbean just like I wouldn't trust a doctor to do open heart surgery who got their degree from the Caribbean. :\

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Mike_in_CA:

Andrew,

"just like I wouldn't trust a doctor to do open heart surgery who got their degree from the Caribbean."

--that's a horribly short-sighted and misguided statement to make. They still take the same exams and do their residency in the US!

As for this poll, it just shows why I HAVE NO IDAE WHY EVERYONE THOUGHT PR WAS A LOCK FOR CLINTON!!

It is HORRIBLY ignorant to assume that just because the island is "Latino" (but more appropriately Boricua (sp?)) that it would vote Clinton. Just because people speak Spanish does not mean they are all the same culture.

I am originally from CT where our "latinos" are primarily Puerto Ricans. And from exit polls there, Obama won the CT PR vote. I am getting really really frustrated that everyone thinks Clinton is just going to run away with PR beacuse its Spanish-speaking. Thats sooooo ignorant on behalf of the media.

This poll puts that somewhat to rest. This primary will be like most of the rest here in the US: CLOSE.

Ok, done ranting.

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emcee:

Lsmakc, you're right - that's not a rant. Rambling and irrelevant to the topic at hand; but not a rant.

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mago:

lsmakc

"Whatever?" I guess PR has joined the long, long list of insignificant places.

I cannot imagine why you think nobody has told or heard the history of the struggle for women's rights.

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Dan:

To Mike_in_CA:

I have to agree with you 100%. The assumption that all "Latinos" will vote the same is ignorant.

There are numbers to back this up: look at the results of the Democrats Abroad primary. With the exception of the Dominican Republic, Obama won every single country in the Caribbean, Central America, and South America (including Mexico).

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lsmakc:

@mago:
sadly, you miss the context of this comment. telling "it" hardly has the empowering dynamics of shaping 'it' and bringing to a close.

try a re-read.

as for PR, what if PR, OR, KY, WV, IN, PA all go clinton. what do you then do with all the quotable obama statements about popular vote trumping delegate lead.. his modus operandi when he was looking at a delegate deficit but a popular momentum suggesting he'd have these numbers against delegates. now wouldn't that be fun slamming him with his own loftiness.

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Jonathan S. Fox:

Hm, this is very interesting indeed. I've been wondering about getting a poll of Puerto Rico ever since I saw Jay Cost's popular vote spreadsheet. In there, the two biggest boons to Clinton's vote total were Pennsylvania (as biggest state left, and a place where she's strong) and Puerto Rico (with an estimate of 1 million turnout and a generous 25% margin for Clinton). Reducing her margin in either state dramatically changed the game.

For example, using the current Pollster.com trend estimate for Pennsylvania of 7%, giving Obama a conservative 10% lead in North Carolina (current trend estimate is over 15%), and then setting the margin in Puerto Rico to SUSA's 13% poll outcome gives Obama a popular vote lead in every calculation except in the unlikely scenarios in which MI and FL results are included without any redistribution to Obama of the MI undecideds or re-estimation based on exit polls.

That makes the amount of her lead rather important -- Puerto Rico has the potential to be a crucial vote in Clinton's case to the superdelegates, and it becomes even more important as Obama gains in Pennsylvania, reducing the number of votes she'll pick up there against him. But if either the Puerto Rico turnout or her margin of victory (assuming she wins) is small enough, there won't be a case left to make.

You can tweak some of the other numbers, but it doesn't change much. It's really NC, PA, and Puerto Rico (under the assumption that there's a big turnout for the primary vote) that play the biggest roles in the popular vote race, and Obama's just too far ahead in the popular vote right now to close the gap unless she can do extremely well in at least two of them.

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Another Mike:

lsmakc, please provide a link to any Obama statement about "popular vote trumping delegate lead." I've followed the campaign pretty closely and don't recall it.

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the_real_truth:

lsmakc-

Please post on hillaryclinton.com or something. Blatant partisan spin/lies are not welcome here. Thanks.

We all know who has been changing the rules of the game as the weeks have gone by. Your pathetic distortions of the truth are easily seen through.


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Jonathan S. Fox:

Er, for some reason I thought that was a SUSA poll. Whoops.

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lsmakc:

real truthiness..

you more than others have little merit in such unsavory put downs. i take it you are banishing me because i differ with you?
i take it you are the self appointed spokesperson for mark and that we have to be obama card holders to play? i didn't notice mark telling us that our turnkey sign in was predicated on this outrageous bias.

if that is true, then what you have done and said here is not a discussion, but a harangue.
and precisely the frightening behavior of obama
camp followers.

i salute your myopia and fear of open exchange. let the 'change' meister and his brethren prevail. as for me, civilized talk has never threatened me. so take cover,,, it certainly spooks you and it belongs to the bill of rights..

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the_real_truth:

Another Mike -

lsmakc doesn't need proof, she just makes things up to "support" whatever bs/spin that is currently coming from clinton hacks these days. I think she also drinks heavily, so maybe we should be cognizant of that when we read her posts.


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Andrew_in_California:

"Mike_in_CA:

Andrew,

"just like I wouldn't trust a doctor to do open heart surgery who got their degree from the Caribbean."

--that's a horribly short-sighted and misguided statement to make. They still take the same exams and do their residency in the US!"

And I can get a law degree that isn't recognized by the national bar association from the Caribbean as well. There is a reason that most Caribbean universities are a laughing stock even if they do the same tests as you say. I hope you wouldn't take my off-the-cuff comment so seriously, but if you have ever lived in an island community the way of doing business is more representative of a Banana Republic than the United States. Corruption runs rampant and I'd love to see the cross-tabs of this poll rather than a newsweek-esque reporting of their numbers.

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cinnamonape:

I think all Obama has to do is remind Puerto Ricans of Bill Clinton's position on "Vieques" and that's worth a good 5-10% more vote for him.

[For those who aren't familiar with Vieques, it is an island off PR that the US Navy used as an artillery target range despite the fact that civilians lived there as well. After several deaths people began protesting. Bill Clinton essentially ignored the protests and kept giving the Navy the go-ahead to use the island for testing their weapons. Eventually there were major protests and near riots.

This continued into the first years of the Bush Presidency until eventually the military stopped doing it.

But Bill Clinton lost a lot of his support. Puerto Ricans expected him to act favorably and he simply ignored them.

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This poll is based upon self identified Democrats. The primary in Puerto Rico on June 1 is an open primary. So this poll really doesn't reflect the complete electorate for the primary.

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