Pollster.com

John McCain went to CO and declared that AZ, NV, and CA need more water from the Colorado River basin (at the expense of CO, UT, and NM). Why is he still polling anywhere close to even in CO? If an issue so regionally important isn't enough to sway CO voters, what will?

According to Quinnipiac, Colorado has tightened just ahead of Obama's convention there. McCain leads there by just 1 point--well within the margin of error. The crosstabs seem about right. Will Obama get a boost in this state following his speech on Thursday? Hopefully, there will be polls taken of this state soon thereafter.

The three most recent polls of CO agree that the race is tight there. In addition to Q (McCain +1), Zogby has Obama up 6 and right-leaning Rasmussen has McCain up 1. The Rasmussen poll is the oldest of the three; the Q poll has the largest sample.

Anecdotally, my many relatives in Colorado (many of them right-leaning) agree that the buzz on the ground there is for Obama. McCain has recently gotten into hot water by suggesting that Arizona needs more of Colorado's water. If Obama gets any kind of boost from his convention, then he should flip Colorado. In fact, his most likely electoral vote victory may be the Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado (a total of 273 electoral votes, allowing him to lose New Hampshire).

Another close interesting poll. The numbers include "leaners". Obama support slightly more firm than McCain's. The a high 18-29 turnout is essebtial for Obama in this state. Toss up, but it is another of these LV polls!

In response to poster - faithhopelove: Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado = 273. However, if as you suggest Obama loses New Hampshire (4), then the election is a tie at 269 and goes to the House. In the House, each state gets 1 vote, and the majority of states are Republican, so ties go to McCain. If Obama loses NH and VA and OH, he needs a small red state such as NV, MT or ND. I believe Obama will put serious effort into NH.

I not so sure about that Paul, in the case of a tie, it is who won the most house delegations not who won the most states. Which could be very close. Here is one prediction for the house delegations

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/like-kissing-your-sister.html

Somewhat amusingly if there is a tie, then the vice-presidential choice goes to senate (highly likely to be democratic), so we could end up with McCain-Biden!

There is also at least a chance of one of the electorial votes from Nebraska going to Obama.

Thanks for the helpful link, John.