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POLL: Quinnipiac Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania (7/23-29)


Quinnipiac University
7/23-29/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Florida: (1,248 LV, 2.8%)
Obama 46, McCain 44 (June: Obama 47, McCain 43)

Ohio: (1,229 LV, 2.8%)
Obama 46, McCain 44 (June: Obama 48, McCain 42)

Pennsylvania: (1,317 LV, 2.7%)
Obama 49, McCain 42 (June: Obama 52, McCain 40

 

Comments
TheVoice99:

This election will be about turnout, enthusiasm of the supporters and the ground game/GOTV. Who has the advantage there, I wonder.....


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skibum1981:

Gotta be considered good news for Obama, I think. Maybe those FL advertisements are paying off?

Does this put him officially ahead in the FL projections on 538, I wonder?

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skibum1981:

Hmm just noticed the numbers regressed! Didn't realize Quinnipiac had him up in FL.....

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boskop:

seems like per the pollster map, the only significant decline for obama is in his nemesis state:pa. maybe they'll have to book two stadia in denver and have it all simulcast on jumbo-trons. gotta keep upping that ante...

and now that bush is coming out swinging as in his morning report of the best month to date in iraq, and the american public wanting grease in their cars more than anything...and to get bailed out of their dingo loans, looks like obama is getting less leverage about how he can CHANGE anything. the bailing out is underway under the dastardly republicans..DARN!!!
this is really getting interesting again.

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1magine:

All numbers have regressed for BO. PA is showing signs of heavy JM negative advertising. FL is just holding on. Not whjat I would call good news. OH is too close for comfort. OH is representative of the US as a whole. I need to delve deep into cross-tabs, but on its face, the race has either held steady (bump in the middle - - regressed to the mean) from month to month or tightened a bit.

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1magine:

Boskop - interesting analysis of the polls. Did you go to school for that or was it a head injury?

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TheVoice99:

skibum-

Nearly all Quinni polls have showed regression (to the mean). After Clinton campaigns in Ohio and FL, then you'll probably see a slight uptick there. Again, the turnout will be key. Come election day, who will certainly go out and vote? Who is most enthusiastic to vote?

In these large Quinni polls, mccain needs a 5 point advantage on election day to be competitive. If not, consider it over. That's why Obama is still putting money into states such as NC, MS, GA. If they were lost causes, he would concentrate elsewhere. Since the polls have it close, a good GOTV and turnout operation will give him the win in those states.


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Mike_in_CA:

In my opinion, these polls have simply regressed to the mean. Also, remember, these polls were taken last week. Obama's July has been weaker than his June, across the board. Let's wait until the conventions.

The best piece of news is that he continues to stay in the mix in Florida, a state that 538.com still has painted a light red. I think its safe to say that all of Obama's advertising and organizing in Florida has elevated it back up to its traditional swing-state status, instead of a Lean McCain like it's been all year so far... We'll see.

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carl29:

Compared to last months numbers released by Quinnipiac, for the most part everything is staying more or less the same, except for PA. However, I really doubted PA numbers in the first place, for some reason they were a little off compared to the other polls at the time. The numbers out of PA in this poll look kind of the same that other pollsters are given as well(July 23, Rasmussen O. 51% vs. M. 45%)*(July 25-27, Strategic Vision O. 49% vs. M. 40%)*(July 23-29, Quinnipiac O. 49% vs. M. 42%). All in all, pollsters seem to agree that in PA Obama is in the upper 40's and McCain in the low 40's.

I think that Obama needs to pay attention at Ohio. McCain has been campaigning in the state quite a lot, so the danger of him surging is great. I am still skeptical about FL. I need to see more numbers out this state, but judging for what we have from Quinnipiac, he seems to be holding on.

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boskop:

imagine: did you ever hear of the word 'civil'?

comments like that invalidate any observations you have.

take the high road, buster and live and let live.

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TheVoice99:

It was about as civil as your "comment", boskop. It sounds like you are a mccain staffer - good to see you know how to use "the internets", and "the google".

"The rantings of the lesser will always amuse."

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1magine:

boskop is right. I actually tried to cancel it before it posted. And I apoliogize.

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sherman:

Well, I think it's still bad news for McCain that Florida is even close. Obama doesn't need Florida, and he doesn't need Ohio. He does need PA, but if he gets Florida and not PA, then he's still ahead. If BO gets all the states that Kerry got, then pulls in Iowa and New Mexico, then he wins. Sure there are lots of permutations, but a Florida win for Obama pretty much crushes JM no matter how you realistically slice it. That leaves out all the potential pickup states of Virgina, Colorado, Nevada, Indiana and Missouri (ND, SD, NC?) that Obama is doing very well in. I wouldn't worry too much about Obama coming down a bit in a few states because him being strong in Florida is really big.

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sherman:

Sorry, BO would also need another 6 EVs in addition to IA and NM, so CO would do it, all states where he has a decent lead.

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carl29:

Somehow McCain needs to hold onto every single state that Bush won in 2004, and I really don't think he's got a chance in Iowa, a state that Bush won in 2004. If Obama keeps his current 2-1 lead among hispanics, New Mexico becomes an uphill battle for McCain since Bush won a decent 44% of the hispanic vote in the state(32% of the electorate) and ended up carrying it by less than 6,000 votes, around 1%.

Colorado is a little bit more challenging for Obama and the democrats, but again not out of reach. In 2004 Bush won the state by 5% of the vote, having a 9% party advantage, 38% Rep. vs. 29% Dem. The key in Colorado is the very healthy pool of Independent voters who compromised 33% of the electorate. Keep in mind that Kerry did not campaign in the state which is NOT going to be the case for the democrats this time around. This state has definately been trending blue even without the democrats contesting it. We'll see.

Nevada is a very interesting state. It's got hispanics, 10% of the voters in 2004, AA, 7% of the voters in 2004, Asians, 3% of the voters in 2004, and others that we can speculate could be Native Amer.?, 3% of the voters in 2004. Despite having a 4% party advantage, vote won the state by 3% of the vote. In 2004 Bush gathered support from groups that I doubt will support McCain the same way this time around. For example, Bush won 13% of the AA vote, won 50% of the Asian vote, and 40% of the hispanic vote.

We don't know yet if this will be the year democrats "steal" some of these states from the GOP column, but there is no doubt that as time goes by, Democrats will become more and more competitive in the region. Remember my words: The day will come when Texas will be purple if no blue. Hispanics are changing the state in a big, big way. Democrats should never, ever let hispanics down because the GOP already knows that among them rest the political future of this country.

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Undecided:

ENERGY. My focus like many other Americans is on the energy issue (read energy = economic issue). This poll states the following:

"With likely voters concerned more about energy than the war in Iraq, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's recent tour apparently didn't help... By margins of 27 to 30 percentage points, voters in each state say Congress should agree with President George W. Bush and allow offshore drilling for oil. Sen. McCain supports offshore drilling, while Sen. Obama opposes it."

Florida: Obama has a better energy policy, 34 percent of Florida likely voters say, as 32 percent say McCain has a better policy, with 34 percent undecided.

Ohio: Voters split on which candidate has a better energy policy, with 34 percent naming Obama, 33 percent naming McCain and 33 percent undecided.

Pennsylvania: Obama has a better energy policy, Pennsylvania likely voters say 36 - 30 percent.... yet (despite Three Mile Island) six in 10 voters now favor building new nuclear power plants (which is part of McCain's plan).

Bottom line: 1/3 voters are undecided on which is the better energy policy... so who is going to make the sale here? McCain's Obama/Brittney ad sure is humorous and to McCain's point. I have not seen any recent ads on energy from Obama. I think Obama needs to also inject some "fun" into his media buys. (Even Nader videos are humorously satirical.)

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zotz:

There are too many variables and it's too early. There should be more study of the variables, such as; the Bradley effect, how big will the black-latino turnout be?,third party candidates,the Dem voter registration drive,Rep base motivation. These are some of the known-unknowns that will decide the election.

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JCC:

Florida might be a sleeper for the dems this year and the MSM is not picking up on it. This came out earlier this month (local paper) and the GOP can't be happy about this.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-flbvoters0712sbjul12,0,7473721.story

It is interesting that recent FL polling have shown support for offshore drilling when in the past it has been a huge sore. Hell, even brother Bush put his foot down a few years back. I'd suspect that once people see the ads with a cute little blonde girl building a sand castle with crude oil...that will put a end to it.

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TheVoice99:

mccain's ad is just sad. his attempts at humor fall flat. remember his rape jokes and wife-beating jokes? he is an old crass man with no ideas or a sense of humor.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/15/sources-recall-mccains-jo_n_112955.html


Maybe Obama should run this ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgF39TRCPPE

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carl29:

I actually think that Obama needs to stay on message about his economic agenda, taxes for the middle class, cracking on oil companies making more than "indicent" profits and speculators, addressing the Foreclosure crisis to stabilize the stock market and banks, control health care costs, end the war, so we can start investing in this country, etc. I think that part of all these non-sense ads is aimed to get Obama off message, so people don't realize that the only idea that McCain has is drilling.

Obama must keep his agenda out there. The time will come during the debates when people will realize that indeed drilling will produce NOTHING until 10 years from now, and that Oil companies already have places where they can drill but are not doing it in order to drive prices up to the sky. Obama's got to place himself as the anti-oil companies' candidate, so he can make the argument that he will take on those companies that are manipulating the prices to increase their profits.

I think that Obama should take a popular position: They(the oil companies) are the bad guys that I will take on. And paint McCain as their representative pushing their agenda.

There are people who will certainly be on his side. According to Rasmussen:

"A new Rasmussen Reports national survey, taken last night (Monday), finds that 45% think placing more restrictions on energy speculators is more important , while 42% take the opposite view that allowing offshore oil drilling is more important."

Obama has to make McCain part of the Oil industry, their Cheney replacement in Washington. Obama has to position himself as the representative of the people to put an end to Bush-Cheney Oil-hunger-driven agenda.

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