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POLL: Quinnipiac Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania (8/17-24)


Quinnipiac University
8/17-24/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Florida (1,069 LV, 3%)
McCain 47, Obama 43
(July: Obama 46, McCain 44)

Ohio (1,234 LV, 2.8%)
Obama 44, McCain 43
(July: Obama 46, McCain 44)

Pennsylvania (1,234 LV, 2.8%)
Obama 49, McCain 42
(July: Obama 49, McCain 42)

 

Comments
SwingVote:

I think Ohio and Virginia will be the keys to win. I don't think PA is in play. Florida... maybe but not very likely (McCain is likely to win FL, in my opinion).

Obama should either win Ohio, Virginia or NM+CO to win. As opposed to most people on TV, I think McCain will be on the defense, defending VA, NM, OH, CO, NV and probably FL that Bush won. It is harder task than many analysts think. The "win" is much more difficult for McCain. However, I think he is on the right track to win. He is clear about his message. Obama is not yet. I am an Obama supporter but I think McCain would be a much better president than Bush. He is a good man. This election is a win-win election for us, as opposed to loose-loose election of 2004.

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KipTin:

Well it looks like Florida is moving (6 point swing)... toward McCain... even after all that Obama advertising.

And Ohio is a statistical tie. Obama's lead in PA is half from two months ago.

Obama is running BEHIND a generic Democrat and McCain is running AHEAD of a generic Republican in all three states.

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marctx:

The polls are staying remarkably consistent. I don't see much movement to McCain. I am so anxious to see Hill/Bill speeches and "mock" roll call since they are cutting it short. We are at the turning point in this election. Next week we will see if the DNC Convention Comedy Show is going to give Obama that 15 point bounce.

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freedomreigns:

I don't see anything in this poll but surprisingly good news for Obama. I have to admit a little surprise at the Ohio poll given the trending in most of the other battleground states. Florida is probably correct as of now, closer than it should be for McCain but still his state and will likely be his in Nov. The big shocker is Penn to me. All the other states seem to trend away from Obama even a little.

The biggest piece of obvious concern for McCain is the lack of shift in PA. The biggest concern for Obama is that he never exceeds 80% of Democrats. If he expects to win, that has to change to 85-90.

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thoughtful:

You guys are at it early, Good Morning!

Yes isn't it almost as simple as this:

Obama has a clear lead and improvement on the Democrats 2004 performance. There are a lot of voters undecided, amongst them a surprising number of Democrats. With the nation polling that they clearly want a change of administration to Democrat, this election is very much for Barrack Obama to lose.

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TheVoice_99:

"15 point bounce"? Good one marctx. You sound just like a repub puppet. Just admit it already.

The bounce will be around 3 to 4 points.

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TheVoice_99:

Obama doesn't need to do anything - the polls show he is tied in florida, ohio and all other battlegrounds (within moe) or don't you guys know how to read polls? Now, combine that with the enthusiasm gap and the fact that the obama campaign is registering new voters at a 40-1 clip over mccain, and you see the beatdown that is in store for mccain in november.

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thoughtful:

@Voice

please try to tone it down, i have a sore head from last night, there are different ways to interpret the polls.

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BrookLynda:

Because of the media's tendency to portray McCain as a moderate, I think a lot of Hillary supporters assume he is pro-choice. Once all those fence-sitting Hillary voters realize that if he wins, that's the end of Roe v. Wade, they'll come out full force for Obama. And that's the end of McCain.

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thoughtful:

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain also earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s still tied with Obama at 46% and McCain at 46%."

This is not so much that McCain is gaining ground as Obama losing support, I think?

This is the first poll post Biden, Rassmusson says it's Hillary affected, with a sizable number of Dem Women (21%) pledging themselves to McCain.

I am going to be sexist here. Some women, Brooklynda, in these kind of matters are quite irrational, and actually take vindicativeness to a level of mutually-assured destruction!

From a Dem perspective, get them back and win the election more easily. But, not too soon, or we won't have much to talk about over the next 8/9 weeks!

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djneedle83:

Last night was the set-up for tonight. The voters that Michelle Obama attracts are surburban voters, female independent voters who, and new voters who are sitting on the undecided fence. She reached the voters she was trying to pull from the undecided/lean Mccain column into the Obama camp.

These voters exist in the suburbs of New Hampshire, Southeastern Penn., Northern Virgnia, Northeastern Ohio/South-Central Ohio, and outside metro-Denver.

Tonight, Hillary is going to sway those white-female voters making less than 50K and influence them into voting Obama. (As a side note, these voters represent 60% of the Hillary voters who are undecided/lean MCcain) I don't think there will be a problem by the end of the week. And Bill will top this off by taking a 2 x 4 and smack Mccain right in the mouth only like Bil Clinton can do on stage.

What's Lieberubsh, Mr. 911, Mittens, and the infamous POW going to say about socioeconomic opportunity in America? Answer: Nothing

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boskop:

i share more with dems than repubs. and i have never adored hillary..but there is something very important regarding principles here..

we dems were righteously indignant over the gore divestiture. but like the abused child growing up to become the abuser, the DNC did the same thing to hillary.

they simply do not deserve the acronym "democratic' based on their machinations early on to divest hillary of opportunity.

it is because of the fact that i among 15 others stood out on the steps of the supreme court on that rainy inauguration day in 2001 that i have realized the dem party is as full of bolderdash as any other machine and that barack obama is their puppet.

i am proud to be a PUMA, wish I could be there to protest the disenfranchisement of the oldest party and join in the declaration of busting it up, of cleaning it out and starting all over again.

equitably.

this is not sexist, this is about democracy folks. and you're watching manipulation as old as the Roman legion anointing the emperor.

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marctx:

I love the opening about the Biden/convention bounce being in the wrong direction. I don't know if Hillary and Bill can get some of those women back, but they are not getting me back. I'm voting for McCain this year and Hillary 2012.

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thoughtful:

Guys, thanks for the re-assurance, as this great fun, but let me assure you, that the issue that Hillary ran on was that Obama could not win the election.

Not that if I lose my misguided supporters are casting 2 votes - one away from the Party and one into the Repub camp. In those circumstances Hillary becomes unelectable as the Democratic nominee.

The only way that Hillary could run in 2012 is as an Independent and she won't do that.

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marctx: shhhh! no talkin' whiles the mensfolk is tellin' us what ta think !

;-)

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Stillow:

Watch her speech closely, she obviously has to come out in full support of Obama, but I think she will put subtle messages in her speech that will keep some of her supporters away from Obama, she needs him to lose so she can take the pie in 2012. I don't think she can wait til 2016....and she certainly won't challenge Obama in 2012, unless he is a total disaster....carter, bush....

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marctx:

Ciccina: Good One!

Thoughtful: Keep threatening us, we don't buy it. That is exactly what they said when Reagan did it to Ford in 76. Ran, lost, took it to convention, president four year later. Hillary will be president just like Reagan.

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thoughtful:

Ciccina,

I hope that my opinions are well reasoned. Truth be known her own campaign staff let her down, that's just my opinion.

Morning Stillow, I agree with you about every thing other than the subtle message, Hillary is cool, it's her husband Bill that's been the problem, and played a part in what happened in the Primaries, too.

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marctx:

Thoughtful:

Are you gonna be on this website four years from now arguing with me about why you won't vote for Hillary and plan to support the republican. NO.

Do you know why? Because you liberals don't have the option that us moderates do. You are stuck with the democrat. We are not.

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faithhopelove:

The strength of these polls is that they have large samples; the weakness of these polls is that they are not especially fresh (they were in the field Aug. 17-24, meaning mostly before the Biden announcement and entirely before the Dem convention). Through May 7th of 2008, Q ranked 14th for accuracy (ahead of Rasmussen). See:
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/

Q's finding that McCain is up 4 in FL is consistent with yesterday's FL poll finding him up 3 there. McCain is probably ahead of Obama in FL by 3-4 points--meaning he is running behind Bush, who beat Kerry there in 2004 by 5.

As many other polls have shown, McCain has secured his base (Republicans) better than has Obama. According to this poll, only 78% of FL Dems support Obama--not enough for him to win there. Hillary's speech tonight may help him with FL Dems, as she is popular there (and perhaps also with FL women, who are currently split 50-50).

This poll pushes undecideds into leaners; it may be too early (pre-conventions) for this approach to make sense. Also, it does not include the name of Bob Barr, who is on the ballot there, and who may take some votes from McCain. (Ralph Nader is not on the ballot there.)

Florida remains a second-tier pick-up opportunity for Obama. His first-tier pick-up opportunities are Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia.

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@ thoughtful

"I am going to be sexist here. Some women, Brooklynda, in these kind of matters are quite irrational, and actually take vindicativeness to a level of mutually-assured destruction!"

"I hope that my opinions are well reasoned. "

Don't make me laugh, buddy. Oops - too late.

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thoughtful:

@marctx
As you have made it personal.
Libertarians are not Liberals, if you like you can call me an Ultra as I am from the left as opposed to Barr's right wing flavor. I believe that we should all be completely free and unhindered by government, but I can't effect that change, can I?

So I am sort of personally restricted by choice.

My political observations are based on the different perspectives so sure I can express a conservative viewpoint or a liberal viewpoint and shades of. I can take on board and respect.

I am not good at playing racist or bigot as essentially I am a humanist as are most conservatives and liberals are for that matter.

So yes, I am more in favor of Obama than McCain's brand purely because I find McCain very dangerous in foreign affairs. Obama frightens the life out of me with his naivety on Afghanistan a country that I have lived in and know extremely well.

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marctx:

I knew you were a foreigner.

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thoughtful:

Ciccina

I think the caveat of knowingly making what is a sexist statement should have taken away any offense.

However, if I have offended anyone i apologise profusely, it really was not intended to offend by articulating/paraphrasing a well worn sexist cliche. I am really very sorry indeed,abhorrent.

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thoughtful:

marctx:

I am a middle class professional white guy from Los Angeles California!

How does that make me a foreigner?

Anyway lets get back to the polls

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faithhopelove:

One more word about FL: McCain almost certainly will lose the election if he loses this state's 27 electoral votes. In this scenario, even flipping NH, his top pick-up opportunity, would not help him (assuming Obama carries the Kerry states).

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Stillow:

There's no doubt McCain needs FL....if he loses FL, he has no chance. But I think FL is safe for him. I suspect the map will look very much like 2004 when its all over with, except Iowa and New Mexico.

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Mike_in_CA:

boskop,

relax. and then tell me how the DEMOCRATIC party disenfranchised Hillary. Tell me in rational terms, seriously. Because I want to know. No bluster please.

If what you're really getting at is that this was "Hillary's turn" and she was "denied" it, then that's not a good excuse. She and Barack both ran a fair race, and she lost by the rules. I just don't get it.

If Barack had lost I would've voted for Hillary full throttle. I even thought, in January, that he probably would lose, and that I was perfectly OK with that. She is a magnificent woman, with so many great acheivements, and she would be great for the country, just as Barack will. This election should not be about who's bitter.

John McCain will run this country into the ground. Everything that Hillary, Bill, Gore, and Barack have fought for will be lost. Why? So you can make a protest? This is a defining moment in this country. Are we really going to give the keys to our future back to the party that has done more damage to this country than any President since James Buchanan? Our economy is tattered, our world image destroyed, our army stretched thin, our poor poorer, our health care system broken.

I'm not telling you what to do, but I'm urging you, as a concerned American, a concerned Democrat, a patriotic American, Barack will fight for you. I know he will. Stand with Hillary and Barack and all Democrats. This election is more important than you and me and bitterness.


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thoughtful:

I am going to be insulting here: you're an idiot.

Sorry if that caused offense. You know how irrational and vindictive us women can be.

[sigh. now Mark will ban me. but it was worth it.]

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faithhopelove:

A second "one more word about FL": the right-wing Constitution Party's candidate is on the ballot in FL (but not named in this FL poll). He is a pastor from FL. He may take some votes from McCain--especially if McCain chooses Romney to be his running mate (think conservative evangelicals). Crist would likely seal the deal for McCain in FL. However, Crist wouldn't help McCain anywhere else--a recent Zogby poll had Obama-Biden beating McCain-Crist nationally by 7 points.

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Stillow:

@Mike_in_CA

There's no such thing as a fair race anymore...

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KipTin:

I laugh audibly everytime I read statements like "lot of Hillary supporters assume he (McCain) is pro-choice."

Why does Obamanation think women are so stupid? And why does Obamanation think that ALL women are pro-choice? And why does Obamanation think that pro-choice is the number one issue for women?

Hint: The number one issue is balancing the budget/reducing the debt and the economy... aka Clinton economics. Obama/Obamanation is ignoring that reality.

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Tybo:

"I laugh audibly everytime I read statements like "lot of Hillary supporters assume he (McCain) is pro-choice."

a lot of democrats thought Barack was going to filibuster FISA

lmao

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faithhopelove:

Q's Ohio poll has the same strengths and weaknesses as it's Florida poll (see my post above). It shows no movement of statistical significance since Q's last poll of Ohio--just float within the margin of error. Obama is up 1 here; McCain was up 1 in a poll released yesterday. Comparing the crosstabs of these two polls leads to the conclusion that this poll is the more reliable of the two (fewer questions here about the voter demographic breakdown).

Once again, Obama has not secured as much of his base in OH as McCain has his. Q shows the strength of Obama's current support to be slightly greater than McCain's strength of support (81% minds made up for Obama, 79% minds made up for McCain). Yet he is winning just 8 out of 10 OH Dems; if the Biden choice and the Dem convention help him secure 9 out of 10 OH Dems, then he will likely pull away from McCain in this state. Also, McCain has recently out-spent Obama in OH by about a million dollars. Conventional wisdom believes Obama will have more money to spend than McCain during the last two months of the campaign.

Coupled with yesterday's SurveyUSA poll showing Obama with higher favorability ratings than McCain in OH, this poll confirms that OH is a top-tier pick-up opportunity for Obama.

Then again, it appears that McCain will announce his running mate on Friday in OH. Rob Portman, a former OH Representative, is a possibility. While Portman, who has little name recognition and who worked for the Bush administration, would not help McCain nationally, he would help McCain hold OH.

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faithhopelove:

Stillow:

I agree with your comment above re: FL, IA, and NM. If you are right, then Obama needs just one more state to swing his direction. CO, NV, OH, and VA are currently his best bets.

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Stillow:

I personally think McCain wins VA, NV and OH, each by a couple points too. I think this whole thing comes down to Colorado. 2000 it was FL, 2004 it was OH...I think 2008 is CO....just me....for all I know it could come down to Rhode Island........

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Patrick:

I agree that it'll come down to Ohio and Virginia. And I predict McCain will carry them both by a few pts. Obama is under-performing by a truly shocking percentage. In the latest daily Gallup national tracking poll that came out today, McCain is now ahead of Obama by 2%: 46 to 44. Granted, they are still within the margin of error. But in a year when voters are so overwhelmingly disgusted with the Republican president and a generic Democrat beats a generic Republican in virtually every poll by 15 pts, for Obama to even be tied with McCain (much less slightly behind) is absurd. He just cannot connect so far with swing voters (esp. working class voters and women). And he got less-than-no 'bounce' from selecting Biden which is certainly no surprise since Biden (a 35 year Senator) is the ultimate Washington insider whose own son is a prominent lobbyist. Unbelievable. Oh, well, how much damage can McCain do in 4 years? The Clintons will clean it up (again) starting in 2012.

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faithhopelove:

The timing of Q's PA poll is interesting, as CNN just last night spent several minutes talking with PA Governor Ed Rendell about his state. The consensus there was that PA remains a swing state. Polling indicates otherwise.

This poll shows Obama up 7 in PA--no change from July; and Obama's support is firm--82% of his supporters have their minds made up, while only 75% of McCain's supporters have their minds made up. Moreover, not since April has a poll shown McCain with a lead in PA (and that a small lead in a right-leaning Rasmussen poll). McCain has recently out-spent Obama in PA by over a million dollars and has nothing to show for it.

Note also that this poll was in the field mostly before the Biden pick. Increasingly, Biden appears to have been a "do no harm" choice. Still, if there is one state (outside Delaware) where he will help Obama, it is PA. He and his wife were both born in PA. He has been called the state's "third senator." He is a senior, and he is a Roman Catholic; PA has one of the oldest populations in the country, as well as a large Roman Catholic population.

Biden's presence probably takes Tom Ridge off McCain's list of possible running mates. McCain will probably choose Romney (in an effort to hold NV and flip MI), Portman (in an effort to hold OH), Crist (in an effort to hold FL), or Pawlenty (in an effort to flip MN).

There are five states that McCain has a fair chance to flip:

Tier 1 ~ NH
Tier 2 ~ MI, MN, WI
Tier 3 ~ PA

MI or MN may move up to McCain's first tier if he chooses Romney or Pawlenty, respectively.

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Basil:

Re all those undecideds:

Some are undecided because they haven't been paying attention to the election yet. If they can't choose between Obama and McCain now, chances are they don't even know who Joe Biden is --or any of the GOP VP choices except maybe Giuliani. Hence no bump right now from Biden, but it doesn't mean he can't help later. Hard to imagine any non-celebrity VP (other than Hillary) giving Obama an instant bump from this undecided group until they focus on the election.

Other undecideds are Hillary supporters who don't want to recognize Obama yet. Only a truly irrational Hillary fan could ultimately vote for McCain (and I know they're out there), but there's nothing irrational about their making the point by waiting to endorse Obama. That's politics. Still a big Hillary bump should soon materialize for Obama (sorry, that sounds sort of medical, and painful, at that), if she doesn't self destruct or fudge on her endorsement.

BrookLynda's probably right about some of Hillary's supporters thinking McCain's pro-choice and being persuaded to vote for Obama when they find out he isn't. I wouldn't care to quantify that, but as a fraction of Hillaristas it's probably similar to the % of the general public who think Obama's a Muslim. I'd like to see both stats now, but I'm certainly not aware of any Obama ads addressing McCain's Roe v Wade stance. I'm sure they'll happen and that they'll help Obama somewhat among women voters. An anti-choice Clinton supporter would be a true anomaly, but there are probably a few--and a few more who would lie to a pollster about it. Anybody here?

On balance I think Biden will help in the weeks to come and that the vast majority of Hillary's holdouts will support Obama --the ones who actually would have voted for her in the first place and weren't a) just saying it to skew the polls, nor b) bothered by Obama's skin color. There's a minority of Hillary loyalists out there who don't fit this model, but it sure isn't Obama's policy they're concerned about.

GOP supporters tell everyone why they shouldn't like Obama (Wright, Ayers, Rezko, Michelle), but it all seems pretty petty compared to the basic issue differences between D and R this time.

You don't have to hate McCain to vote for Obama, but the McCain campaign seems to think you have to personally dislike Obama to vote for McCain. Obama's a celebrity cheese-eating flag-pin dissing surrender monkey who cares only for himself, after all--but nobody's questioning his patriotism. That would be rude.

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