August 19, 2008
POLL: Quinnipiac National (8/12-17)
Quinnipiac University
8/12-17/08; 1,547 LV, 2.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
National
Obama 47, McCain 42
(July: Obama 50, McCain 41)
Bush's Job Approval:
Approve 30, Disapprove 64
(July: Approve 26, Disapprove 67)
By Eric Dienstfrey on August 19, 2008 8:53 AM | Permalink
Comments
It seems to me that McCain's stance on russia is just like the GOP's long cold war stance. the expensive stance.
He would have us enter right into a new cold war with russia, benefiting military contractors in a whole new, expensive arms buildup.
we really can't afford the GOP and their expensive ways.
Mccain only supported Georgia after one of his campain chairmen took over $800,000 in lobbying fees from Georgia.
Why does Mccain have so many foreign agents working in his campaign?
I think that if people could just see what we get when the GOP is in charge and do a direct comparison to what we would get with a Democratic president, things would not be close at all.
When Obama leads by 5% points, it is asked why it is not more. When McCain leads in any category nobody asks why he isn't leading by more against an "inexperienced" rookie?
If Russia is able to do whatever it wants, it is this administration's fault. Russia exactly knows what the US can do and what it can't. Even in this case, people thinks that this conflict will benefit McCain. Policies of McCain and his buddies resulted in weaker US (in terms of defense, economy or international politics), now they are trying to benefit from this. I doubt people will buy it (except MSM).
Bad news for McCain, even after running negative ads for a month, he's still losing to Obama, after the convention its going to be difficult for him to catch up
@KipTin
The reason, (at least in this poll), why McCain is winning, 76-19, among voters who state that terrorism is the most important issue, is that these voters are overwhelmingly republican compared to democrats. Obama is winning those that state the Iraq war as the important issue, 61-30, for the same reason, that most voters who prioritise this are democrats. Voters who think that the economy is the most important issue are fairly evenly spread (Slightly more democrats) with about 50% from each party, hence the closer 49-41 margin.
Sorry, Dave... But both the Dems and the GOP had a Cold War stance. If you were not around then, read some history on JFK.
FYI... McCain has always had an interest in Georgia far beyond a lobbyist connection... mostly because McCain does not trust Putin and Georgia is lined up to join NATO.
Since 1991, Georgia has been a representative democracy, organized as a secular, unitary, presidential republic.
BTW... what is wrong with doing business with another representative democratic nation? How is that evil or wrong?
I know that... John. But I was comparing the ECONOMY which is supposed to be the Dems STRENGTH to TERRORISM/FOREIGN POLICY which is the GOP STRENGTH. Why is Obama not leaps ahead on the ECONOMY??? Making it a Dem/GOP partisan split does not account for the Independents/Unaffiliated.
"In my opinion, the Georgia/Russian conflict reveals Obama's weakness on foreign policy which he keeps trying to shore up... probably to the detriment of focusing on the economy."
Obama's response to the Georgian/Russian conflict was just plain scary..
It was almost like:
"let's see what the polls say before I 'lead'"
poland aka Voice:
you need to move to the Dailykos or HuffPo. Your racial hatred (implying rebups care that Obama is a "black guy"), bigtroy (Romney belongs to a "cult"), ageism (referring to mccain has the crypt keeper), and sexism against Hillary. We don't need that here.
you have been banned at least five times that I can count. stop the hatred.
The delusional disconnect that is growing between the Obama media and the Obama fans is starting to widen. You're buddies on CNN & MSNBC and the democratic governors all admit that Obama is loosing ground and might loose this race. you need to come to grips with that so that we don't have a disaster on November 5th.
If Russia has desires of expansionism then we would be forced into another Cold War. It was only due to US military might that the Soviets did not expand into western Europe. Since Europe has gotten weaker and weaker in terms of military strength, if Russia were to begin another campaign and star gobbling up former Soviet states, the US and only the US would be able to prevent them from expanding into western europe. Our European freinds have gotten so weak they can no longer defend themselves against a would by tyrant. The free world would look to the US to protect them if Russia decided to really go nuts. Not a pretty picture, but the simply reallity is the US is the only military power capable of defending freedom from a enemy like Russia if they decide to go back to their Soviet ways. We can hope Russia is just sabre rattling...no one wants another Cold War, but let's face it, if another one starts, the US once again will be the only major opposing force to the spread of Communism.
I think the recent events in Georgia are irrelevant to the response to the Russia question. If before the Georgia crisis erupted, Q-Pac asked the hypothetical, "If Russia invaded one of its former satellites, who do you think would be better equipped to handle the situation?", I'd bet that the numbers would have favored McCain the same as they do in this poll. Problem for McCain is that while people may have an opinion about who would better handle the situation, it ain't even close to the top of their list of concerns. The Cold War is over - people, outside of the bedwetting neo-cons, no longer live in fear of the Evil Red Menace. Today, stuff like this is viewed by most voters as a regional conflict that has no impact on their lives. This election will NOT turn on Russia or Georgia or who is better equipped to handle relations with that region....unless one of the candidates (hmm, wonder who) proposes sending American troops into the region - and that would work to that candidate's disadvantage. (..."only 22% want U.S. troops to be part of a multi-national force.")
Even if it's only an 8 pt lead, Obama still has the lead among people for whom the economy is their top concern. And we know that the economy is almost certainly going to be the top concern for most voters going into November. With both candidates securing their respective party members' votes and with McCain hammering Obama over gas prices/drilling over the past month or so, the fact that Obama still has close to a 10pt lead on the economy in this poll certainly isn't good new for McCain. And in many other recent polls, the gap on the economy is even larger, to Obama's advantage.
Actually where Andrew Sullivan is concerned... more lies FOR Obama. This guy is in man-lust with the Big O.
look at pollster's map.
minnesota is now in the lean column. the next to move there is wisconsin.
this is what you guys should be talking about.the colors are starting to change.
and mccain is gonna sit on the denver bounce aug 29th with his VP pick.
i call that cheeky...
@Stillow:
"...but let's face it, if another one starts, the US once again will be the only major opposing force to the spread of Communism."
I agree that even in the post-Cold War world, the only country who can match Russia in military might is the United States. (And we have a significant advantage, although one we can't use because even today, MAD is still a more than valid theory.) But post-Soviet Russia isn't communist nor are Putin's goals to "spread the Revolution". It's more an authoritarian oligarchy. Putin is an old KGB hand but he's not a communist and I doubt he ever really was one. (I've read in several places that the KGB - unlike the Soviet government - was never really all that interested in communist ideology.) Russia may have limited imperial designs but they are strictly regional and are related to national pride and natural resources. And while Russia may be an emerging threat to our global economic leadership, must like China is already, they are hardly the national security threat they were during the Cold War.
Communism is dead. The only place it may exist to any extent is Cuba, and that country is a threat to nobody except its own citizens. The market economies of China and Vietnam make it nearly impossible to view those nations as communist any longer. Authoritarian, yes, but not communist. As for North Korea, they moved from communism to the Cult of Kim a long time ago.
I truly believe that if Obama had forgone his European tour he would be much further ahead in the polls. Visiting Iraq and Afghanistan was OK especially since he had previously been AWOL there. But then he messed up after the meeting with Petraeus by dismissing the surge.
Obama would have been better staying home and focusing on the Dem strength... the economy. Too bad Obama feels he is competing with Bill Clinton because Bill could give him some very good advice, i.e. "It really is the Economy, Stupid." But now it looks like Obama blew that opportunity in many ways.
And the Hawaii holiday did not seem to be as well-timed as expected. Ironically, because Hawaii is not part of the mainland, some people saw Obama as leaving the country again. And there he was in time of an international crisis, standing in his casual clothes, saying that everyone should try and get along.
Well, I would compare Obama to Jimmy Carter's problems in office, but upon reflection I will say Obama is actually starting to make Carter look better and better.
@OGLiberal
We are in the age of globalism, even regional conflicts have an affect on us. There are strategic reasons Russia invaded Georgia. The left makes the mistake of just wanting to ignore the problem and it goes away. With the major world economies so tied together even regional conflicts affect us. If you think for one minute the left benefits from such things, then please continue thinking that way. Its a flaw the left has had for some time is thinking the rest of the world can deal with its own issues, if they could see more than two feet in front of there faes, they would realize issues everywhere have a good or bad affect on everyone else in this age. This isn't 1525 anymore where a war in Europe means nothing to the far east. If Russia begings to go after former Soviet states, Americans will get nervous, despite what the far left thinks, Americans do not want communism or socialism.
The whole idea of if we are nice they will be nice back won't work. We cannot isolate ourselves or ignore problems around the world. We've saved western Europe several times, I suspect we would do it again if the need arises.
what state does palpatine represent?
is he up
for re-election?
Are you guys awake?
Georgia instigated the conflict!!!!
Maybe fox news should start reporting the facts - since all you repubs are really full of it!!
Watch a 12 year old beat down a pathetic fox news guy!!
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/16/31435/2844/753/568761
let's for a moment accept that georgia did institute the conflict,oh happy with one's life aka apoland,etc,...
then it is a civil war. for what possible reason then does russia move in its missiles?
this under any name is called an invasion EVEN if the secessionists call russia for help/
irredentism gone wild.
@KipTin
If the voters whose priority is terrorism is brokendown by party id, with McCain getting the republicans, Obama getting the democrats and the independents splitting 50/50, McCain would win the subgroup by about 75/25. This is fairly close to the 76-19. Especially, I would guess, as voters who emphasis foreign policy who are leaning towards Obama would go with the Iraq war as their top priority while those who lean towards McCain would go with Terrorism.
Doing the same for the economy voters would indicate an Obama lead of about 54-46, similiar again to the 49-41. So perhaps Obama would like a slightly bigger lead here as it looks like he is splitting the independent vote about 50/50. But my point is that the issues are being split down party id lines.
@Youforgotpoland:
Is Obama back to his racist ways? By the way your blog posts read today, one would think so. Why would a guy that thinks he is a soo-in have to resort to racial antics? His campaign has even accused a clergyman of cheating. This is scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Hi KipTin
This is what you said yesterday.
"Obama did fine in the debate."
You know spin doesn't work so well when you can't remember your own statements (and other people can). You are blaming Obama for not predicting the Russian invasion of Georgia? That doesn't sound fair. You are blaming him for wanting to visit his sister and grandmother. Sounds like a petty complaint to me.
I don't know how much confidence that I would place in this poll; it doesn't show the weighting factors. The last one that they did was back in July, and it show Obama with a nine point lead. All of the other polls showed it at a one to tree point differential at that time. So even if this poll is taken as is, it shows that McCain has gained five points since July. That would be in line with the rest of them.
Quinnipiac University seems to always have about a net 3 point bias towards the Democratic candidate. And they consistently over-polled Obama during the primary season against Clinton.
This would seemingly make this line up with the other tracking polls.
voice99
pasting up wiki with snippets belies your complete idiocy in how to read a clip.
my previous comments stand. all you did was confirm them.
btw:look up your word for the day and then
take your most literally lame self somewhere else.
Putin's ambitions are a threat to Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, and others in Eastern Europe. It does not matter if Putin ever believed in communism or not.
polls for LA and FL are available at 3. stay tuned!!
Whilst I am not dismissive of this poll, it confirms that even giving 3% more to McCain because we think his performance with Pastor Rick was so powerful and somehow should give better poll numbers: McCain struggles on any poll to get to 45% - even with the Georgia situation and 'drill here drill now" cynicism.
There is no great enthusiasm for him, even on his own side, thats is what the polling keeps on showing and like it or not Obama's support appears to be solid.
The overall numbers could well change when the undecided have to decide. After Conventions, after debates.
Hey... zotz... I am NOT blaming Obama about anything. I observed that some people have perceptions that are not helpful for Obama, and that Obama's response to events fed into those perceptions.
As well as Obama was barking up the wrong tree (i.e. try to beef up his foreign policy image... which did not work... instead of putting his energy into the economy issues.) Paul Krugman wrote something similar, and he is an Obama supporter.
By the way, Obama had not visited his elderly ill grandmother for 19 months. I would have been more impressed if Obama had traveled to Hawaii during spring break instead of vacationing in the Virgin Islands. Shows you where his family value priorities are.
Also note that Obama flew his sister and her family to Butte MT for the July 4 holiday.
This is what I am talking about:
Today's Gallup tracking has Obama 45/McCain 44. In the three of the last four days there has been a statistical tie among registered voters.
Rasmussen has Obama up by only 2 points today. Since the end of July... with leaners... Obama has been essentially statistically tied with McCain and where Obama trailed McCain three times.
McCain has taken the initiative on energy as well as the Georgia/Russia conflict. Obama is losing his advantage on the economy and his inexperience in foreign policy is being emphasized.
@Kip Tin
And yet McCain consistently polls is under 45%!
The country wants a change.
Don't confuse inexperience with lack of judgement and viceversa.
You think , on polling day, the United States voter is going to vote effectively to go to war when McCain loses his temper.
If the country desires such change, why is McCain down by 1 - 3 points in nearly every poll? And Obama cannot break 50? Obama can't even get to half the people, yet we all want change! Face it, this thing is deadlocked right now in a virtual tie. Change, hope, etc are all words. This thing won't break either way for a few more weeks. Just wait til the 527's on both sides get going, this thing is going to get mean and ugly.
Watching McCain put on his sad-face mask and say that we're all Georgians (watch the clip) is a clear indication of how close he is to his paid Georgian lobbyist/advisor. No one can argue that the Russians aren't acting in their typical heavy-handed, brutal fashion, but to suggest that Saakashvili is a paragon of rationality and virtue and that Georgian forces are glorious freedom fighters is disingenuous. Americans can't afford to be Georgians or Russians.
There is a long-standing conflict in this region that calls for something other than just picking one side and calling the other one evil. There's plenty of evil to go around here, and all of McCain's eye-rolling gesticulations aren't going to help sort it out. At the very least we shouldn't let our evangelical zeal as the world's most self-righteous nation lead us to try to militarily restore some imaginary balance in Georgia that was never there in the first place.
Look at the madness of the Iraq war, and consider how "experienced" Rumsfeld/Cheney et al were. 4,000 US troops and 100,000+ Iraqi civilians will never experience anything again, and many, many thousands more will suffer from our insane blunder for the rest of their lives.
McCain's recent ranting diatribes against Obama offer a perfect example of what's so disgusting about media-driven politics. Every issue must be seen as an opportunity to demean one's opponent and aggrandize oneself, and the more a candidate perceives himself to be behind, the more hostile the rhetoric. It's human nature, but it's sick.
What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans and the homeless, whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or the holy name of liberty or democracy?
Mahatma Gandhi
@ boskop
"mccain is gonna sit on the denver bounce...
i call that cheeky"
lol :-)
McCain seems to think that we can fight 3 or more wars at once - while "surging" troop levels in Iraq. Consider that the Iraq imbroglio actually weakened our response capability elsewhere in the globe. EVERY military analysis has said that the military is over-committed. The surge has accentuated that. It has prevented the US from increasing troop levels in Afghanistan, and reduced "action ready" levels in other theaters.
George Bush, along with McCain, and his advisers (including one who is a paid agent of Georgia) encouraged the Georgians to press the Russians. 1500 US troops even participated in "war games" with the Georgians (along with troopps Khazakstan, Armenia, and Azebaijan) while the Georgians were provacatively pushing troops into Ossetia. Condi Rice was there during these war games, as was the US Commander of Southern European Command. Both the US and Israel have Special Forces trainers permanently stationed in that country. Yet we are to believe that the US didn't know about Georgia's plans, and told them not to be provocative.
Then there is the statement that "we (the Pentagon) believed that we had an agreement that they could crack heads in Ossetia, but no further". That sounds like the US actually gave the Russians a green light to fight the Georgians, as long as it was limited to South Ossetia.
We were days from being embroiled in a regional war thanks to Georgia's miscalculations. NATO membership WOULD HAVE compelled the US and Europe to support the Georgians in their misadventure. The dominos that caused WWI would be toppling again.
McCain constantly has pushed efforts to supply Georgia with US military equipment and support, as well as NATO membership. Now most of that equipment is in Russian hands.
McCain wants to now exclude Russia from the OCSE, the major means the US and Europe cooperates with Russia on anti-terrorist activities. All that would do is increase the risks of groups like Al Qaida and the Chechens committing acts of terror against civilians.
@Stillow
According to your logic HRC virtually ties and wins the Dem Nomination?
With Nader and Barr in the election I don't think the winning candidate will get over 48%!
Let's put it this way, Obama has been on vacation, there is the Georgian crisis and McCain can't get over 45%. Not a lot of enthusiasm.
Obama has established himself as the standard bearer for women's rights.
Sure the conventions and the debates, early days! I have given McCain 2 out of the last 3 weeks and he hasn't gone anywhere Obama has lost a liitle bit to undecided. Maybe I'm reading that wrong but that is how it looks evertime McCain gets close or tied or even gets 1 point up in Rasmusson.
@thoughtful
Its a virtual tie. Just look at pollster's own map, Mich, Minn and Org hav eallgone light blue from dark blue, NC has gone pink, Ohio has gone yellow from light blue...MO is on the verge of going pink along with FL. If there's any trend, its to McCain. But its just a tie, there's been no break in the indy's for weeks. We need veeps and conventions...Obama needs to enter the debates with a lead, since there won't be a telepromputer, he will stumble. A debate with McCain won't be the love fest it was with Hillary.
Its a tie........right now.
@Real Clear/Politico they actually have McCain winning, last time I looked!
There is a trend and that has been away from Obama but not to McCain you have the same numbers I have.
I gave 3% to McCain in this poll and he is still losing by 3 points!
So I don't know where tie comes from. How many tracking polls has McCain actually led in 2 out of the last 24? That is not a tie is it?
Polls when they are within a few points are considered a tie because of MOE. But if you look around blue's are turning light blue, yellow is going pink....
thoughtful:
"You think , on polling day, the United States voter is going to vote effectively to go to war when McCain loses his temper."
That is a false statement that McCain is a warmonger and it is a talking point that has not and will not stick. Obama's one point lead in today's Gallup will be erased on election day when the vast majority of undecideds vote against Obama. That is what happened in most of the states in the primaries, especially during the second half. Votes will not be swung by attacking McCain. This election is about Obama's readiness.
Have you been listening to Obama today whining and begging McCain to acknowledge that Obama is patriotic. Geez. Don't ask for respect. Earn it.
@Stillow
This Poll isn't within MOE is it?
I have yet to see any national poll with a McCain lead outside the MOE.
Arrgghh, stop it. A poll is only tied, if it is tied. If a poll is within the margin of error then it is close, with a significant possibility that due to sampling error the canditate who is down is actually ahead. This applies to each poll, if multiple polls show the same canditate ahead even by a small margin, then odds that due to sampling error, the polls are wrong becomes increasely small.
@thoughtful
hey if you think Obama is ahead and your a supporter of his, please continue to think that way. Keep doing what your doing....its totally working!!!!
@marctx
I judge a man on how he behaves. Barbaraning Iran is not the behaviour I expect from a President. Not understanding the nature of Shia fundamentalism from Sunni fundametalism from a self proclaimed foreign policy expert speaks for itself.
His recent racheting up of the Georgian crisis served only his own political purposes - not the United States', arguably not even Georgia's. There are a lot more proven and acomplished statesmen providing leadership in resolving the issue.
All the world needs is another loose cannon!
McCain's negatives are out there waiting to be recognized by the public, as a brief internet tour suggests. Obama's problem is that the Rovian neocons (and HRC to some extent) have so repulsed people who value civility (i.e. women and more educated men) that it's difficult for Obama to call attention to McCain's disqualifying flaws without seeming to get down in the stinking cesspool with him. Of course, I'm hardly the first to point this out.
I am struck by the irony that so many self-proclaimed Christians don't seem to get it that Jesus wasn't exactly a hate monger. To me, the "pro life" folks who support McCain don't represent anything that's particularly Christian. I see it as more of a cult of the unborn and newborn who see life after birth as so debased and foul that babies (and the baby Jesus) are the sole representatives of purity and innocence.
To paraphrase a quote, pro-lifers believe that life begins at conception and ends with the terrible two's. After that, try them as adults. I call that pro-infant, not pro-life.
Thoughtful:
Right. We need an extreme liberal pacifist and appeaser instead.
Basil:
"I see it as more of a cult of the unborn".
More bigotry from liberals. Yeah and Jesus would agree with Obama that it is ok to abort babies that are already born.
I cannot understand why anyone who opposes Obama is a racist, but then it is ok to make offensive comments that are bigoted, sexist, and ageist. Liberals have a double standard.
@Basil
Well luckily your views aren't the majoirty. A cult of the unborn....ok!
@Basil
Well luckily your views aren't the majoirty. A cult of the unborn....ok!
@Marctx
you seem to have an intolerance of other people's view point.
The United States waged a war in Vietnam based on a falsity. Millions of people died or had their life destroyed.
We went to war in Iraq on a falsity.
There was and is a real mission that needed taking care of in Afghanistan the US has flunked the mission to date 7 years later in capturing or killing thiose responsible for 9/11.
Please explain the judgement.
Please explain to me why you call those of us who did and want to track down and eliminate the fanatics responsible for 9/11 and other crimes are pacifists?
Someone blogged that republicans can't process facts or use logic in a coherent way; I really think that you are wrong on that assumption. They (republicans) actually use too much logic and facts to suit most people. Its the liberal minded people who live in paradise who think in abstract intellectual thoughts that are absent of any basic logic format. They then try to justify their assumptions by using logical fallacies whenever they are questioned about their rhetoric.
marctx:
Gandhi notwithstanding, I'm neither a pacifist nor an appeaser.
WWII was a necessary (but not "good") war because the aftermath of WWI was so punitive to Germany that it paved the way for Hitler. The aftermath of WWII in Europe was as successful as it was because the Marshall Plan didn't demonize the people of the axis powers, but aided in their nations' recovery.
I assume you're referring to partial birth abortion as something Obama would agree with. To portray such a desperate measure (to save the life of the mother) as any kind of elective procedure or a form of population control is misleading to the point of absurdity.
Even typical abortions that are intended as birth control are abhorrent, and women who think otherwise are few and far between. No reasonable person doesn't want to reduce the number of abortions to as near zero as possible. How do we do this? Reasonable people can disagree.
Members of the cult of the unborn do not have illegitimate concerns. They merely focus on that one issue to the exclusion of all others. It's an emotional stance that's easier than thinking.
How "pro-life" can you be to think that 100,000 dead Iraqi men women and children are just "collateral damage"? Surely there were some babies involved in that unnatural disaster. Don't you feel sorry for them?
Abstinence is fine, but abstinence-only education is idiotic and puritannical (unless maybe you're gay, in which case you're abstaining anyway). We could adopt the Taliban's method of preventing fornication and adultery. Then Jesus could come back and tell us how wrong we were to cast those stones--and those bombs.
You don't have to be racist to oppose Obama, but to support McCain it helps to be blind to the horror of the GOP's legacy.
Read my mind: No new Texas.
Ask a liberal why its hot outside today and he'll tell you its a number of factors icnluding global warming, greenhouse gas emissions, carbon footprints and mankind.
Ask a conservative the same question, and he will tell you "Because its summer"
Liberalism is good for only one thing...comical relief!
Ask a liberal why we have hurricane in Florida today and he'll tell you about scientific facts that causes hurricanes.
Ask a conservative the same question, and he will tell you "Because god punishes us because of homosexuality".
What about that?
Its actually funny.....see some of you lefties have a sense of humor for once!
@SwingVote:
I take it that you are a leftest liberal so why not give us some scientific facts about what causes hurricanes? While you are at it, pray tell us what a cyclone, and a typhoon are. You also might want to throw in the latest scientific theory of global warming. And last but not least, can you elaborate on the causes of the disappearing ring tailed squirrel and the latest capture of Bigfoot.
@OGliberal
"The Cold War is over - people, outside of the bedwetting neo-cons, no longer live in fear of the Evil Red Menace. Today, stuff like this is viewed by most voters as a regional conflict that has no impact on their lives."
So because we lack an ideological conflict with Russa, it's ok to allow them to run over Eastern Europe, one small country at a time?
Just ignore youforgotpoland.
I'm ashamed to be in the same political party as he/she is.
Well, I think I will go back to commenting on the polls, since this thread has gone somewhat (if not way) off track.
First... Why is not Obama way ahead? All the starts should be aligned for a Democrat. I personally believe that Obama's campaign "tactics" may have worked in the primary, but it is not so effective in the general.
Second... Why are there so many undecideds this year as compared to previous years? I think it is a combination of a reluctance to vote for another Republican president on one side combined with Obama's inexperience on the other.
Stillow, lefties have always had a sense of humor. That's the only way we can deal with the mountains of fear, greed and ignorance we're faced with. You just didn't get the jokes.
Self-proclaimed conservatives tend to accuse anyone who disagrees of being liberal, but the conservatives I know are mostly just contrarians. That's true of knee-jerk liberals as well, but does the political process have to be controlled by a bunch of knee-jerks?
NOW THIS POLL IS WAY OUT OF SINK,I THINK THE MEDIA IS TRYING TO KEEP THIS CLOSE,BUT ITS NOT CLOSE AND HERE IS WHY.[THE HIGHER THE MINORITY VOTE GETS!!THE LOWER PERCENTAGE OF THE WHITE VOTE OBAMA HAVE TO GET,AND THE HIGHER THE MINORITY VOTE GETS,THE HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF WHITE VOTERS MCCAIN HAVE TO GET,FOR EXAMPLE IF THE MINORITY GETS TO 28%,THAT MEANS MCCAIN HAVE TO WIN THE WHITE VOTE BY 22%,WHICH HASNT HAPPEN SINCE 1984, HE ONLY LEADS OBAMA THE WHITE VOTE BY 10% OVER OBAMA,ITS ALL ABOUT THE DEMOGRAPHICS PEOPLE,IN 2004 BUSH WON THE WHITE VOTE BY 18%BUT WON THE ELECTION ONLY BY 2%,IN 2000 BUSH WON THE WHITE VOTE BY 14%,BUT LOST THE POPULAR VOTE,WAKEUP PEOPLE THE MEDIA KNOWS THIS,BUT WONT SAY ANYTHING ABOUT IT,IF THE MINORITY VOTE WAS ONLY 10% LIKE IT WAS BEFORE 1992,MCCAIN WILL WIN BY 5% OR MORE,BUT HE REALLY HAVE A TOUGH HILL TO CLIMB,SO THATS WHY THIS POLL IS SO SO OFF MAN,MCCAIN HAVE TO BEAT OBAMA WITH THE WHITE VOTE BY 26% TO WIN BY THIS 5% MARGIN,IT DONT MAKE SENSE,GO IN LOOK AT THE DEMOGRAPHICS IN PAST ELECTIONS PEOPLE,IT WILL TELL YOU EVERYTHING,THEN YOU WILL SEE WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT.

Poll states "Obama leads McCain 49 - 41 percent among those who list the economy." So why is McCain so close to Obama on the "economy?" This is supposed to be the Dems strong point. Does not look so strong here.
"McCain leads 76 - 19 percent among those who worry most about terrorism." Now this makes sense.
Further "American likely voters say 55 - 27 percent that Arizona Sen. John McCain is better qualified than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to deal with Russia...In dealing with Russia, even a large minority of Democrats think McCain would do better than Obama."
In my opinion, the Georgia/Russian conflict reveals Obama's weakness on foreign policy which he keeps trying to shore up... probably to the detriment of focusing on the economy.
Today's Rasmussen tracking poll (Obama 47/McCain 45) does a good statistical comparison on these issues:
"Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters now rate the economy as the top issue of Election 2008, down from 40% yesterday and 45% a week ago. This comes as the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows consumer confidence growing to the highest levels of the past five months.
National security concerns are the top priority for 25%, up from 21% a week ago. This week’s data shows confidence in the War on Terror remains near the highest levels of the past four years.
Data released yesterday shows that 50% of Americans support a UN peacekeeping force to address the situation between Russia and Georgia, but only 22% want U.S. troops to be part of a multi-national force."
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Posted on August 19, 2008 10:29 AM