Ohio 2/27 - 3/2
Clinton 49, Obama 45
I hate to say it, but of all the Ohio polls out today, this one seems closest to reality. A sudden surge in votes for Clinton makes no sense. Quinnipiac is one of the best pollsters out there for these Northeastern States (I'm originally from CT, home on Quinni), and I say they are dead on. I put this one as a nail-biter.
Posted on March 3, 2008 12:28 PM
Remember Wisconsin!! When it is ice cold outside, which voters will be more motivated to vote? Obama supporters or Clinton supporters? That will decide the election in Ohio.
Posted on March 3, 2008 12:39 PM
I don't understand how anyone could say that a late surge for Clinton makes no sense. The last few days have seen a focus on national security. experience and preparedness for president. There was no way of knowing whether that emphasis would significantly help Clinton, but if it does that can't be called a huge surprise.
Posted on March 3, 2008 1:19 PM
Most people aren't in tune to the nuances of elections like we are. Nothing SIGNIFICANT happened this weekend that would suggest a late break back to Clinton.
Sure, things made the news cycle this weekend that might hypothetically help Clinton, but the news wasn't nearly big enough to really throw this thing into another dimension.
It is absolutely possible that there is a late break back to Clinton. What I suspect is that all of those polls last week that showed this thing closing fast to Obama were merely undersampling Clinton supporters.
Either that, or this thing is going to be blown just like NH was blown, except this time in the opposite direction. Remember how all the polls suggesting a tidal wave for Obama and, in the end, Clinton's supporters came back to boost her? Well, the polls today suggest a tidal wave toward Clinton, so what makes you think that Obama's supporters and GOTVers dont push super hard to bring back support to him. Plain and simple, the electorate is split nearly 50-50 everywhere.
Posted on March 3, 2008 2:21 PM
Mike in CA has proven to be nothing more than a mouthpiece for Obama, our own resident Plouffe. Every poll that shows Clinton ahead, he discredits. Every poll that shows Obama ahead the most, he champions. He picks and chooses among the polls that best make his case, with no statistical evidence to support his claim. No science, just intuition and gut feeling couched with "I hate to say it," as if he hates to say it. If he had any integrity, he would just admit he cannot see anything other than what his Obama colored glasses show.
I voted for Obama in CT, so before you blast me, consider that. I am just sick and tired of losers like "mike in CA" who bitch and moan when a poll comes out that they dislike. If you dislike the polls in Ohio so much Mikey, then get a PhD in math and go conduct one yourself.
Posted on March 3, 2008 7:18 PM
Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)
Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.
Please email us to report offensive comments.
See our comment policy here. Note that we require commenters to share their email address via Typekey. We will never share your email address with anyone without your explicit permission.
MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR