Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: Two New Ohio Polls


  • Quinnipiac University -- Among 741 likely Democratic primary voters (2/18-23, margin of sampling error +/- 3.6%): Clinton 51%, Obama 40%
  • University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll -- Among 529 likely Democratic primary voters (2/21-24, margin of sampling error +/- 4.3%): Clinton 47%, Obama 39%

 

Comments
fred:

Interesting. She needs to get to 60 to 70 percent by 3/4 or she is toast.

____________________

Mary:

I expect the teamsters' effect to take place this week - 60K households in Ohio are teamsters - they can "convince" some people, as well as put out a vicious GOTV campaign. I will be anticipating next Monday's poll eagerly.

____________________

Cesar:

Once Sen. Clinton wins Texas & Ohio everything will change for her. She does not need to win big because win is a win no matter what pundits say.

____________________

illinoisindie:

I hear the clintonistas already...."don't call it a come back...". I strongly believe that she has Ohio locked up but by a margin less than 10pts. Even if she squeaks by a win in the texas primary as recent polls have that race in a deat heat, she most likely will not win more delegates than him in texas(check the allocation of delegates to black vs hispanic areas) and dont forget that there is a caucus beginning at 7:30 for the party "activist" that obama most likely will win. Delegates matter... a win of the popular vote is not just a win.Can I give 2 words (Al Gore) she needs delegates of the non-super kind

____________________

Mike :

Nice picture of Obama in the outfit on fox news today.The people of America want to take a chance on this guy.He is a Muslim.

____________________

Mike :

Nice picture of Obama in the outfit on fox news today.The people of America want to take a chance on this guy.He is a Muslim.

____________________

Anonymous:

idiots like Mike should not bother posting here.

____________________

john:

Obama has ties to an unrepentent terrorist named Bill Ayers

Taylormarsh.com


I'm a texas republican and I am crossing over to vote for Obama b/c we are afraid of Hillary and we think he will be easy to beat.
And you Dems are too dumb to notice. I can't wait until you all realized you have been played by the media and my boss Karl Rove.

____________________

Mark:

The momentum in TX seems a lot stronger, but it still appears there is a lot in Ohio as well...especially due to Hillary's selective experience claim. Interesting blog about Ohio and this writer's perspective. Also interesting articles about McCain.

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/

____________________

Mark:

The momentum in TX seems a lot stronger, but it still appears there is a lot in Ohio as well...especially due to Hillary's selective experience claim. Interesting blog about Ohio and this writer's perspective. Also interesting articles about McCain.

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/

____________________

Caden:

john- thanks. bring your friends too. and....be careful what you wish for


cesar - wrong and wrong again. she needs 60-40 wins in BOTH states just to stay competitive. And even then, sh will be toast unless she pulls off 60-40 in Penn and gets some upsets.


Mike - shut up. you are a racist.....are you sure you are on the right message board? Post on fox news, where there are ignorant, mentally handicapped racists like yourself that actually are impressed by hate speech.

____________________

akilis:

Did anyone noticed in the Univ. of Cin. poll Edward gets 9 percent vote? That just doesn't make any sense. Are these voters so ignorant that they don't realize who is in the race and who is not? I really doubt the results of that poll.

____________________

akilis:

Did anyone noticed in the Univ. of Cin. poll Edward gets 9 percent vote? That just doesn't make any sense. Are these voters so ignorant that they don't realize who is in the race and who is not? I really doubt the results of that poll.

____________________

polsaa:

A couple of interesting things in these polls. Both show Clinton getting 20% of the African American vote, but that won't hold up. She's been getting closer to 10% in every recent primary and that's what I'd expect in Ohio and Texas as well. The U of C poll shows a 9% vote for Edwards and that won't hold up either. 9% of voters in Ohio are not going to waste their vote on a candidate who has dropped out of the race. Overall, what we see here is that Obama has moved within striking distance in Ohio and is now about even in Texas. Note also that Obama has a much larger percentage who don't know enough about him to have an opinion, even at this late date. That should change over the next week as the campaign intensifies, which should also help him to narrow the gap. I expect Ohio to end up within 5 points.

____________________

polsaa:

9 percent of voters in Ohio are not going to waste their votes on a candidate who has dropped out of the race. Nor will 20% of African Americans vote for Clinton.

____________________

polsaa:

9 percent of voters in Ohio are not going to waste their votes on a candidate who has dropped out of the race. Nor will 20% of African Americans vote for Clinton.

____________________

Davido:

Agreed. I don't know anyone in Columbus who is for Clinton. And I know A LOT of people here. Anyway, that NAFTA thing hurt her here pretty bad.

____________________

James:

Likely Democrats...Whats the point of it?

Without independents and crossover republicans we don't get the big picture.

____________________

Macy:

and dont forget that there is a caucus beginning at 7:30 for the party "activist" that obama most likely will win.

Caucus delegates are not bound to any one candidate, and do not declare until June 6. If Hillary wins in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania the media will declare her back from dead, and the one with momentum. And when it comes to delegates who can shift their votes, it's all about momentum.

____________________

Tom Brady:

Interesting. It's early of course, and the poll variation is within the margin of error, but it appears that Clinton has, perhaps temporarily, stabilized her lead in Texas. Is this a post-debate bounce, or does it reflect something more substantial?

____________________

Tom Brady:

Interesting. It's early of course, and the poll variation is within the margin of error, but it appears that Clinton has, perhaps temporarily, stabilized her lead in Texas. Is this a post-debate bounce, or does it reflect something more substantial?

____________________

Certh:

Macy -

No pledged delegates are bound to one candidate. They can switch anytime just like super delegates. However, it is highly unlikely they would do so as they have taken an informal oath to vote for the candidate they pledged to. Super delegates however, are free do whatever they wish - they haven't taken an oath when endorsing a candidate - they essentially just a have a vote at the convention. Sorry, but expecting caucus delegates to switch is like expecting Bush to make a wise decision. Possible....but highly unlikely.

Sorry, but expecting Hillary to come back is highly unlikely as well - unless Barack gets caught on one of Dateline's "To Catch a Predator" shows, and even then.....

(paraphrasing an earlier posting)


By the way Macy, she has to win 60-40 in ALL those states to even come close to what Obama will have by the time all the elections are over. So, indeed, it is just a formality now. This puppy is over.


____________________

David Hernandez:

neither of these polls have anything to do with Texas, Tom.

____________________

Tom Brady:

Interesting. It's early of course, and the poll variation is within the margin of error, but it appears that Clinton has, perhaps temporarily, stabilized her lead in Texas. Is this a post-debate bounce, or does it reflect something more substantial?

____________________

Tom Brady:

Interesting. It's early of course, and the poll variation is within the margin of error, but it appears that Clinton has, perhaps temporarily, stabilized her lead in Texas. Is this a post-debate bounce, or does it reflect something more substantial?

____________________

Michael:

No delegates are pledged, but let's face a basic fact, the people campaigns select to be their delegates both at state conventions and at the national convention are the true believers (it's been an overused and in many ways inaccurate statment to this point in the campaign, but these are in fact the ones who have drank the kool aid for their respective candidates on all sides). Hillary wasting time and resources trying to sway them would be a total waste, but then again, knowing what we know about her campaign...

____________________

G.G.:

Certh, Macy's raising of caucuses is not to be dismissed so easily -- as many caucuses did not even allocate delegates to the national convention yet, only delegates to local conventions with several steps left in the process that won't end until summer.

See what happened in Nevada this weekend at the Clark County (Las Vegas -- the most delegates) convention. As the Nevada press reports, "the caucuses start all over again" there, in Iowa, etc.

This means that the candidate most reliant on caucus delegates has a "soft" delegate count. There are reasons -- not just this one -- that some media are more cautious in tallying delegate counts. The NY Times has Clinton and Obama only 5 delegates apart at this point.

____________________

John - Spokane, WA:


Obama only has 69 more delegates (according to CNN) than Hillary - Even if she's close in Texas & wins Ohio, Penn & RI, then shes on top ! She also leads in NC. Obama needs to win these States as well or HES DONE. Neither one will have enough to reach the required amount. Sooooo , enter FLORIDA & MICHIGAN !!
Hillary's in the drivers seat - not Obama.
PS - Anybody seen him dressed up in Muslim attire on CNN.com ?

____________________

Shane:

G.G.,

Yes its true that the New York Times only has Obama up by 5. However, the New York Times does not count some caucuses while, simultaneously, choosing to count the superdelegates vote. What does this mean? It basically means they underweigh Obama's support and overweigh Clinton's support. Why include some up-in-the air delegates and not others?

Well, there is one possible reason. The New York Times has openly endorsed Hillary Clinton. Most of the other major news operations have no endorsement and are staying out of the race. I hate to say it, but this certainly smells to me like favoritism....

"How do we make our candidate still seem viable? Display her up-in-the-air support but not his!"

____________________

Ferd:

GG & JOHN IN SPOKANE -


Spin it however you want but,


IT IS OVER!!


You can cry in your beers now. I'm sorry you donated and lost thousands on Billary.

Everyone and their moms know that it is over, so just shut up already. Even Slick Willy said that if Hillary doesn't win BOTH Ohio and Texas it is over. (And what is a "win"? She'll need 60-40, not 51-49.)


With the expected drubbing in other states that is waiting for her should she eek out a slight win in TX/OH, she WILL concede on March 5th. I got my DVR ready to record it.


Happy days are here again!!

____________________

Esther:

I understand that young kids voters and male professionals have more access to all these internet comments and as a base for Sen. Obama keep blame againt Sen. Clinton, etc.

The last word it is no OVER in this campaign! Believe or not, MICHIGAN and FLORIDA still have to be count.... will be about 370 delegates TOGETHER!

I am confident in the leadership of the Democrat Party because NOW is the time to move the party ahead or destroy it. Can son leader understand how the republicans go voting for Obama to put away the real Democrats??????
Open your eyes, open your senses.... later, will be TOO LATE.
God bless America.

____________________

Thatcher:

Ok .... I've been looking at Real Clear Politics on their delegate count.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Currently Colorado still has 10 pledged delegates to be awarded.
DC has 1 pledged delegate to be awarded.
Maryland has 4 pledged delegates to be awarded.
Hawaii has 1 pledged delegate to be awarded.
Dems Abroad has 3 delegates to be awareded.

All of these are contests Obama won. 19 pledged delegated yet to be awarded. We'll break these out to 10 for Obama and 9 for Hillary. He'll get more - I'm just trying to make the math easy.

So, Real Clear Politics has:

Obama Clinton
1193 1034 pledged
10 9 splitting remaining down the middle
-------------------
1203 1043 in theory - pledged delegates
181 241 Super Delegates (per Real Clear Politics)
-------------------
1384 1284 total delegates

Right now - that puts Obama 100 ahead of Clinton. Now, let's say all Michigan and Florida seats as it stands right now (worst case scenario for obama).

If Michigan were to be seated as is the MI Dems have stated 73 go to Clinton, 0 to Obama, 55 uncommitted. If Florida would be seated, the breakdown would be 105 Clinton and 65 Obama (this is theorized by http://www.goobergunch.net/#FL-D)

Obama Clinton
1384 1284
0 73 Michigan
65 105 Florida
-------------------
1449 1462 Grand Total (so far)

That's only 13 total delegates difference. So, If Obama takes 13 delegates (or more) than Hillary on March 4 (and that number will get closer and closer because of Super Delegates going toward Obama before then) it won't really matter if MI or FL are seated. The rest of the states that are remaining after March 4, 12 in all, so far 8 lean toward Obama and 4 for Clinton. I've done further math for those remaining states based upon the current trends in past and upcoming states that shows Obama really only needs at most 60-70 more Super Delegates (of the 373 remaining) than he has today (giving him a total around 250) to have the 2025 delegates needed to win (if FL and MI are seated as is).

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR