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POLL: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania


Quinnipiac University

Pennsylvania
Clinton 49, Obama 43
Clinton 44, McCain 42... Obama 42, McCain 40

 

Comments
Mike in CA:

Whether you support Barack or not, this poll CLEARLY shows that momentum has indeed taken over this race. In the last Quinnipiac poll from two weeks ago, the spread was 16 points, now it is 6. It seems to follow what happened in Ohio and TX. The major difference: Not much campaigning has happened in PA yet at all. On top of that, PA's Gov Rendell is a strong Clinton supporter.

I think the message of this poll is that momentum is real, and Clinton's ship is sinking.

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Those are bad numbers for Clinton with the primary so far away. Obama has shown a great ability to close much larger gaps once he begins campaigning actively in a state, and his ground forces go to work.

My anecdotal read on this election is that Clinton's base of support has been solid throughout, but that it is static. She can count on the people who supported her at the start to support her at the end. But Obama is cleaning up on the undecideds and bringing in so many people who didn't vote before (either students, or those previously apathetic) that holding onto one's base is not enough.

She's just not an effective persuader when faced with a competitor like Obama.

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John:

I live in PA and I can tell you that these polls are wrong. I live in the Northeastern portion of the state and every poll I have seen going into yesterday debate shows Hillary up in average of 18 points in PA.

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Mike in CA:

John,

With all due respect, pollster.com has aggregated all of the PA polls out there on this site. This is the first one since last Tuesday (19th), when, YES, Clinton WAS leading by double digits.

As I said above, since this is the first poll since Obama's momentum really kicked in, what it is illustrating is that there is movement, even in PA, a place where he hasn't even campaigned.

You are right, before this poll was released, Clinton's lead was in the 12-15 point range (not quite as high as 18, perhaps you should re-check your numbers). I'm interested to see if a string of new polls follow this Quinnipiac one in cutting her lead virtually in half (or more).

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John:

Point taken! But in all honesty, it is foolish to even go by these polls when the Primary is so far away. Something else you might want to take into account is that under PA voting rules, Independent voters don't have a say in the Primary in PA and the last time I looked, that was a main reason why Obama has done well in other states because of the open format.

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Rasmus:

John,

they are polling only registered Democrats/Republicans.

I just think that a 70/25 split of the black vote is a little bit too close...
With 85/15 we probably would have a tie...

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Rasmus:

I think I can give some crosstabs with the numbers given by Quinnipac.
There must have been about 80% (+-1%)whites and 20% black (+-1%) in the poll, 42% male and 58% female and- this is most interesting-
I guess there were about 77% 45+ and 23% 18-44.

Can this be realistic??

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John:

I respect all of your opinions and as I said before, it is to early to pay to much attention to these polls.

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mary:

approximately 60% of the us population do not vote due to a total disillusion with the system
all Obama needs is 10% of them and the White House is his.

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Rich:

although the campaign hasn't started in PA yet, I wonder if there have been ad buys in the Pittsburgh market which covers some of Eastern Ohio. It would be interesting to see if there is more of an effect in the west that the east of PA.

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This is not the general election, and I think people are treating the primaries too much like the general election. Barack Obama has a good lead among pledged delegates, and the Pennsylvania primary will probably be close with a split in the delegates. Barack Obama will most likely do well in Pennsylvania as he has in all of the primaries. Hillary had double digit leads in Ohio and Texas just 2 weeks before the primary, and Barack won as many if not more delegates then her. The bottom line is that the winner of the most pledged delegates (cast by the voters) will most likely get the nomination, and that will be Barack Obama. I think that an Obama/Clinton ticket is the most likely ticket for the Democrats, and they would be an almost unbeatable combination! Vote for Barack Obama in the upcoming primaries, and I hope the Democrats can unite and get a win in November!

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Latina4Obama:

Come on Pennsylvania, let's vote OBAMA. It's time we elect someone we know will be good for this country. Obama has the wisdom and integrity to do the job. It is time to have OBAMA answer that phone at 3:00 a.m. because we know he will use good judgement.

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Trish:

It is clear that Senator Obama has the most paths to the white house. Senator Clinton is talking about she won the big states but, only by small margins with the exception of Ohio and we all know Florida doesn't count. She's bragging about states that usually go republican in the general election.It is clear Senator Obama has picked up twice as many states and that's why he has more votes and more delegates. I think Senator Clinton really wants the white house. But, I don't think it should be at all cost. I think all these guys are right about her leads in the polls. They are quickly diminished once Senator Obama has an opportunity to campaign and people get to know him and understand his message. In reality Senator Clinton is not doing as well as she thinks. It's also very interesting that they keep soliciting Senator Obama as a V.P. I think they realize he's an asset and it would help her win in the general election. But, there's not need to talk V.P. when he's the one winning???

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