Pennsylvania - 4/18 through 4/20, n=1,027 likely Democratic primary voters
Clinton 51%, Obama 44%
Latest polls are Obama 41 to 44, Clinton 47 to 54, with 4 to 11% undecided.
Going with the upper range for both, 53 to 43 leaves 3 undecided. I would split those 2 for Clinton, 1 for Obama to give 55 to 44 with 1% other, or if you prefer, 55.7 to 44.3
Headline: Hillary wins by 11%, vows to fight on.
As an Obama supporter, I was hoping to hold her to single digits (for the psychological effect more than anything else), but it looks like she will do a little better than in Ohio.
If I could give a range, I bet she wins by a 10 to 12% margin
Posted on April 21, 2008 9:35 AM
Note that Clinton gained 1 point and Obama held steady since the last survey. This reinforces my assumption that Clinton will pick up most of the "undecideds" who show up at the polls.
Posted on April 21, 2008 9:43 AM
Here's a question: how many voters are likely to choose a candidate other than Obama or Clinton? Some polls have suggested that 3-4% favor "other" candidates. In Ohio, Edwards received 1.7% of the vote (despite having dropped out more than 6 weeks earlier). Does anyone know if Edwards' name will be on the PA ballot?
Posted on April 21, 2008 9:45 AM
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