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POLL: Quinnipiac University Connecticut


Quinnipiac University

Connecticut
n=2,437 likely voters, interviewed June 26-29

Obama 56%, McCain 35%

 

Comments
Mike_in_CA:

No surprise here. Based on anecdotes and observations, my home state is poised to go really really blue this year. my entire family, most of whom are former Republicans, are already sold on Obama.

CT has a "relatively" large population of AAs and Puerto Ricans. Now that both groups are firmly in Obama's column, it's no surprise that CT is heavily Dem this year. I'm sure Obama will win CT by more than Kerry did in 04

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skibum1981:

Well I think we can officially put that stupid rasmussen poll to rest....

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djneedle83:

Obama built the foundation when he campaigned here this past winter and the people of Connecticut prefer Obama over Mccain.

Kerry only won Connecticut 54% to 44% and Obama should be able to double the victory of margin. Obama has one key constituency in Connecticut which is a large abundance of college educated voters. He should be able to win this group by 20%-25% on election night.

This is the key group that will get him over the top in both Ohio/Virginia.

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djneedle83:

Obama built the foundation when he campaigned here this past winter and the people of Connecticut prefer Obama over Mccain.

Kerry only won Connecticut 54% to 44% and Obama should be able to double the victory of margin. Obama has one key constituency in Connecticut which is a large abundance of college educated voters. He should be able to win this group by 20%-25% on election night.

This is the key group that will get him over the top in both Ohio/Virginia.

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djneedle83:

Obama built the foundation when he campaigned here this past winter and the people of Connecticut prefer Obama over Mccain.

Kerry only won Connecticut 54% to 44% and Obama should be able to double the victory of margin. Obama has one key constituency in Connecticut which is a large abundance of college educated voters. He should be able to win this group by 20%-25% on election night.

This is the key group that will get him over the top in both Ohio/Virginia.

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Sacks Romana:

2,437 likely voters in Connecticut! Isn't that almost the entire population?

Sorry, I'm a bigoted big stater. Still, that's a huge number of people to survey, considering the number of polls we see for much larger states with N=500.

It makes me have a lot of respect for Quinnipiac, although I suppose if they have some sort of bias it might be exaggerated the more people they include in their sample.

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1magine:

skibum - you can put most Ras polls to rest IMHO.

Quinipiac is in CT. They have a great sense of the state - just in case someone actually thought CT might be a swing state this year.

It seems to me that even if the Nat polls are correct, that a 5% Nat lead is roughly equivalent to 10 million votes. That's alot to swing. That maybe we should all be paying attention to smaller states that are real close - NM & CO and the 3 or 4 large states that are real close OH, MI, VA & FL. I think these states will tell the story. 90% of voters have made up their mind, informed or otherwise and little will change that. I think the most indicative polls would track these states once a week.

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political_junki:

I wish they interviewed so many voters for swing states like FL, MI or VA...
Believe me there will be no time when another FL or MI poll comes out with 125 likely voters as sample and MOE of 10%. And following it another poll from NY of 5000 likely voters :)

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mago:

Wasn't CT in play on the famous McCain strategy map? Polls in non-swing states can still be interesting because they can show trends...and in any case, the results in different states are not exactly independent: if Obama wins Indiana, he will probably have won Ohio too; if he loses MN, he will Probably lose WI too.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"Wasn't CT in play on the famous McCain strategy map?"

Yep, I believe it was. I think the entire North East will be out of play for McCain, and that's 117 EC votes Obama will get without issue. Add in 4 of 5 Pacific states and 6 of 8 Midwest states and Obama's got all he needs.

Granted, Oregon, Michigan, and Ohio are still polling too close to call at the moment, but Obama has about 70 EC votes in the South and Southwest that he has his sights on.

I'm not saying he's won, but he's in a great position.

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Paul:

Obama defeated Senator Clinton in the primary by 4 points. He is popular among the Independents and Democrats who supported Ned Lamont in 2006 when Lieberman was forced to switch to Independent, which essentially meant Republican because the Republicans did not have a viable candidate. Governor Rell, who is Republican, found she had a conflict when McCain was last in CT.

Obama drew more than 15,000 to the XL Center with 2 days notice. Bush's poll numbers are in the twenties. Four of five Congressional Districts are now Democratic with the 5th (Shays in Fairfield County) up for grabs.

Although 21 points seems somewhat high, it is difficult to imagine any reasonable scenario where McCain wins CT. Also, McCain will not win MA or RI or NY so spending money in the New York, Boston or Providence media which cover CT would make no sense. I am assuming he does not compete in CT except for fund raisers, which people find very hypocritical.

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