7/24/08; 500 LV, 4.5%
Obama 52, McCain 42 (June: Obama 58, McCain 30)
May Obama 52/McCain 38
June Obama 58/McCain 30 (Unaffiliated: Obama 52/McCain 32)
July Obama 50/McCain 38 (Unaffiliated: Obama 39/McCain 39)
28 point gap in June reduced to 12 points, which is similar to May (14 points).... a 20 point swing in affiliated voters from June to July.
Posted on July 26, 2008 5:17 PM
Wow, undecided, what an amazing analysis.
This is what happens when you robo-poll 500 people in a havily populated state. Whats 500 mean out of tens of millions? Nothing.
Posted on July 26, 2008 6:52 PM
Yeah, right. And this is happening at the same time Rasmussen shows Obama's lead expanding nationally. Makes no sense. The last Rasmussen CA poll as ridiculous and this one is equally ridiculous.
Posted on July 26, 2008 7:36 PM
Wait, the actual population of Cali is over 36 million.
Maybe they should robo-poll at least a 100K. heh.
Posted on July 26, 2008 8:37 PM
I can't wait until the Rasmussen poll of VT comes out....
Posted on July 26, 2008 9:10 PM
CA is safe for Obama. I am sure DEMS would love McCain to seriously campaign in CA and expend resources there. 536 projection is +15.6. In the last four elections DEM candidate has won CA by average of 12 points, and by an average of 8.75 over national percent. So in an even up election, all things equal Obama wins by 8.75. Add heavy African American and Latino vote, and he wins by a larger margin.
Posted on July 26, 2008 9:19 PM
First, keep in mind the concept of "random sample."
Next... Yes, larger samplers are better in that each separate poll should lie closer to true median, but there is the issue of logistics (time, money). Heck, we could poll the entire population then that would be called an election.
Last, several smaller sample polls do indeed tell a story, ergo my listing THREE months of polls. One may interpret a temporary bounce for Obama for trend lines, or one can just take the three polls as a group... average them out or focus on the median values. Bottom line these last three polls indicate ESTIMATED parameters for where the candidate preferences stand in California.
Posted on July 27, 2008 12:00 AM
This is a great sign for McCain. I think we and all his supporters should urge him in the strongest possible language to put as many resources and time into winning CA as possible. Its a huge state, with a Rep. governor. Its bigger than OH - - I believe he should close up as many OH operations as is necessary and move them into strategic areas of CA. where they might find resonance with the community. If everyone who reads this would please drop the good senator a note urging this tiny correction in strategy I know our voices could be heard.
Posted on July 27, 2008 10:24 PM
Yes PLEASE try to win California McCain! Please!!!! I beg you - spend your resources in California to try to win it!!! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Posted on July 28, 2008 1:20 AM
Since McCain's state of Arizona as well as Nevada both border California, spending money in major media markets in California will not be a waste of resources.
I doubt if the McCain campaign seriously thinks that a win is possible in California, but narrowing the gap is doable... just as Obama is working to narrow the gap in several "can't win" red states.
Posted on July 28, 2008 12:54 PM
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