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POLL: Rasmussen California, Tennessee (8/20)


Rasmussen Reports
8/20/08; 500 LV, 4.5% for each state
Mode: IVR

California
Obama 54, McCain 41
(July: Obama 52, McCain 42)

Tennessee
McCain 60, Obama 35
(June: McCain 51, Obama 36)

 

Comments
sulthernao:

No movement, unsurprising numbers.

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Stillow:

Drudge has a headline that leads one to think its Bayh for VP....as they have confirmed reports of campgin stuff being printed up....

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Mike_in_CA:

@Stillow,

that campaign stuff is probably not real. Take a look at the images. They don't really have the Obama refined look.

But, what I find fascinating, is how Obama has managed to take ahold of the entire news cycle. It's like all the reporters in the US are waiting for the damn announcement. Even Republicans like yourself seem caught up in it.

Genius politics, really.

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Stillow:

Ya...its like being a kid again on Christmas morning. As a fan of politics in general, its exicting....I'm hooked.........

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Mike_in_CA:

Unfortunately, I don't think it will happen today :(

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KipTin:

I see movement in Tennessee. McCain is viewed favorably by 63% and Obama’s ratings are 39% favorable. I would say that this state is safely red.

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eugene:

obama is a idiot,he had a chance to take mccain out,tuesday mccain made a huge gaff about the draft but obama decided to run the the house gaff what a mistake that was,when people go into that booth they wont care about how many houses a guy owns,but they will care about if they child is going to be drafted,whats wrong with obama,i think this guy wants to lose,he dont talk about the economy like he should,he is like a brother from another planet,am begining to think obama is really is out of touch

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eugene:

obama is a idiot,he had a chance to take mccain out,tuesday mccain made a huge gaff about the draft but obama decided to run the the house gaff what a mistake that was,when people go into that booth they wont care about how many houses a guy owns,but they will care about if they child is going to be drafted,whats wrong with obama,i think this guy wants to lose,he dont talk about the economy like he should,he is like a brother from another planet,am begining to think obama is really is out of touch

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KipTin:

This idea of text-messages is clever. They get all that good info from you when you sign up with the Obama campaign. It is also more cost-effective for Obama campaign then call centers. But if you (the receiver) do not have a good plan that covers text-message cost, then the communication providers make tons of money. Since ATT is corporate sponsor for the Dem convention then they get a rebate of sorts.

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faithhopelove:

Still more Rasmussen polls....

One telling thing about these polls is that they show no McCain improvement in California, but some in Tennessee. It's possible that McCain's recent oh-so-slight improvement in national polls is due to improvement in southern states. See:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/49844.html

While McCain will take an expanding lead in the South, it does not help him pick up any additional electoral votes. If he loses the Kerry states and, say, the 3 southwestern states, he will lose the election.

As for Rasmussen, his polls are apparently giving Democrats a 7.6 point lead in party i.d. at this time. Today, Pew has released a poll finding Democrats with a 9 point lead in party i.d. If the Pew number is correct, then Rasmussen polls are under-estimating Obama's support.

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DocnTN:

I moved to here to Tennessee about 1 year ago and let me tell, I'm not one bit shocked that McCain is 25 points ahead. In fact, I fully expect him to win by 35 points. These are the most backward, racist people I've seen in my life. No wonder they love their horse and buggy brand of politics (i.e. Bush and McCain.

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Stillow:

Ahhh geee, another shocker for the day, a liberal name calling...calling them racists and what not because they don't support his guy.....

Please liberals, its cool if you want to be insane, but seriously, get some fresh stuff, this racists, sexist, homophobic blubber is getting so old.................

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faithhopelove:

Racism is no doubt still a problem. One thing that I like about automated polling is that the so-called "Bradley effect" (where respondents lie to pollsters about how they will vote in order to hide their racism) is probably eliminated.

Still, Rasmussen is likely under-estimating Obama's support for two reasons: (1) he does not call cell-phones; and (2) he is using a conservative party i.d. number. Including cell-phone only voters and using a 9% Democratic party i.d. advantage would likely improve Obama's numbers by 2-4%.

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KipTin:

People in Tennessee are racists? Please alert Al Gore at once. And all of Nashville. And all the long time African-American farmers who are respected in their communities. Much better to have said that most people in Tennessee have conservative values (e.g. pro-life).

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Stillow:

Why? That's what liberals do, immeidatley attach a label to someone, racist, sexist, whichever "ist" or "ism" they wish to apply that day. If your not a racist, well then your sexist....if your not a sexist, then you must be a racist. Liberals routinely resort to name-calling to distract from there ideaology. If you don't support Obama, well then you must hate black people. If you don't support g'ment run healthcare, well then you must want to see sick people die. If you don't support abortion, well then you must hate women's rights.

The liberal movement is so full of anger and hate, its disgusting. I get so furious watching them label others as racists, etc....and they get away with it as though its credible.


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KipTin:

There has been NO Bradley effect. The Democratic primaries proved that.

Before you dismiss Rasmussen's party ID methodology. Please provide PEW methodology for determining the 9% advantage. Then there can be a discussion on who is closer to actual ID.

Do you really think that cell phone users vote differently than land line phone users? Except for the youth vote, what characteristic would make that happen? And regarding the youth vote, the poll demographics seem to include them at a realistic level... or maybe not. Depends if registered voter or likely voter because historically youth voters are not as reliable as older voters.

Note: Today's tracking polls....
Gallup (registered voters) Obama 45/McCain 44
Rasmussen (registered voters w/o leaners) Obama 45/McCain 43.

Likely voters would slant toward reliable older voters and thus probably McCain.

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player:

Democrats are weighted too heavily in most of these poll's samples. I have seen some go as high as 49%. That is outrageous. Just because Obama has signed up a lot of new voters doesn't mean that they are going to vote in the general election. Until they vote in a general election, they are unproven. Pollsters should use the exit polls of the 2004 election. It looks as if some of the pollsters are beginning to use a model from the 2004 exit polls. I think that is probably what we saw from Zogby nat.I think that is gives a more realistic projection. I see a lot of phony Obama support on cable tv. All they want is his campaign's commerical ad mega bucks rumored to be in the 100 millions. Sometimes they act like a wife who has been married too long; they can't fake it anymore.

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TheVoice_99:

Some people are so retarded it is just astounding.

Are you that effing stupid that you think all people in "Appalachia" and the south are fair-minded about race? Even after all the reports during the primaries - even hillary tried to exploit it.

Grow a brain stillow, you are making the human race look bad. Are you even human? If you are a chimp that has learned to type, please ignore. Stupid chimp.

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TheVoice_99:

Not all republicans are racist, but nearly all racists are republican.


Take a look at what party the minorities are represented by in large numbers.

Yeah, STFU, "player- not", "kipcrap", "stillknowsnothing". "tybull"


I know the facts must hurt for you neo-nazi skinheads, but, hey, that's what happens after 8 years of Dumbya.

By the way, palsies, the WHOLE WORLD laughs at you clowns. Why do you think they all want Obama?

You guys are so stupid and don't even know it.

ROTFLMAO @ you tards!!!!

[No offense to real, honorable conservatives who hate what the repub party has become - see Eisenhower, Susan]

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marctx:

Byah and Kaine are out...


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26336195/

Biden, Clinton, Sebelious????????????????????

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player:

These ad hominem tirades spewed forth by Obama supportes are so caveman like. His public image is that he is suppose to be so intelligent that the rest of us are nothings and that should be thankful that he is here to save us. He actually called McCain ignorant. Why then does he have supporters like these? Is it the IQ bell curve of his group. He is at the very right end and they balance it at the very left?

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marctx:

If it's not Clinton, either Obama finally proves he has some nuts or he's the stupidest politician on the planet. That ruling will be handed out on 11/04/08.

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faithhopelove:

KipTin:

I did not say there has been a "Bradley effect"; I said that automated polling probably eliminates any "Bradley effect."

Nor did I "dismiss" Rasmussen. I said that he is using a more conservative party i.d. number than the one Pew is using. I don't know which number is more accurate. But if Rasmussen's number is inaccurate, then he is under-estimating Obama's support. The reason this possibility is of concern is that Rasmussen has a disproportionate influence on polling averages because he is producing the most polls. Ohio is the best example of this situation. Since May only Rasmussen has had McCain ahead in Ohio. Remove his polls from the Ohio mix, and Obama has a healthy lead there. The Pew info is here:

http://pewresearch.org/assets/pdf/933.pdf

As for the impact of not polling cell-phone only users, one study found that it under-estimates Obama's support by 2-3%. See:

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/901/cell-phones-polling-election-2008

The youth vote may be under-estimated in current polls. A GWU poll (now almost two weeks old) found McCain up one. Buried in the poll's narrative, however, was mention of the fact that the poll assumed the same youth turnout as in 2004. A modest increase in this number, according to the pollsters, would give Obama a 2-point lead. Does anyone believe that Obama will not increase youth turnout at all? Maybe Rasmussen does.

Finally, Rasmussen's tracking poll is of likely voters, not registered voters:

"Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence."

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TheVoice_99:

no, you morons that believe in creationism carry the back of the curve, chimp.

it is biden. so shut up already about that.

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player:

A while back, I saw Dick Lugar and Joe Biden talk about Biden's plan to break Iraq into three seperate countries. They were on PBS Newshour together. Dick Lugar gave Joe Biden an exibition on what it is like to be intelligent. He completely destroyed Biden's Iraq plans right in front of him. Biden was red faced and kept saying oh I didn't mean it like that and so on. Lugar destroyed him. And that was the last time we heard of breaking Iraq into three seperate countries. Whats the low down on Biden? Hes hotheaded and thinks he is the most intelligent guy in the room. Boy, Obama and Bidens egos in the same room will definitely suck up all the oxygen.There won't be any room for the cameras. Oops Obama won't go for that. Go stand outside Joe.

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player:

Does Joe Biden still have that metal plate in his head? He must have it tough going through the airport metal detectors.

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TheVoice_99:

You are a tool. ROTFLMAO.

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faithhopelove:

It appears Biden will be Obama's pick. He's a relatively safe pick--experienced, some name recognition, and he looks like most American presidents and vice-presidents have looked (old, white, and male).

Biden brings the following to Obama's ticket:

1) he has a compelling life-story--winning a Senate seat at the age of just 30, working through the loss of his first wife and infant daughter in a car accident, winning re-election numerous times, and surviving a potentially fatal ailment;

2) as an older white Roman Catholic (he is a grandfather), he has the potential to connect with two demographics with which Obama has struggled--namely, white seniors and Roman Catholics (Florida has many white seniors, while Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Montana, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, Indiana, and Alaska--battleground states--all have large Roman Catholic populations);

3) he has foreign policy expertise (not to mention a son in the military), shoring up Obama's credentials in this area;

4) he is from the same region as the swing state of Virginia (about a two-hour drive from Delaware), was born in the swing state of Pennsylvania (where his wife was also born), and went to law school in the Northeast;

5) he developed a relationship with voters in the swing state of Iowa during the primary season;

6) he performed well in the primary debates, flashing a winsome smile and wit;

7) his wife is an educator who is an activist in the fight against breast cancer.

Past mistakes aside (plagiarism, the occasional dumb remark), Biden is a pick who is unlikely to hurt Obama. He is already familiar to Iowa voters--a state that is already Obama's to lose. His Roman Catholicism and Pennsylvania roots should seal the deal for Obama there (where he already leads). His Roman Catholicism and connection to the Northeast should help keep New Hampshire in the Democratic column. Obama's upcoming schedule now makes better sense--in Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Montana (not to mention Colorado), the Roman Catholic church is the largest denomination.

Finally, being from the same region as Virginia and having foreign policy expertise, he may help Obama pull an upset there. Obama will appeal to young people (who are registering to vote in droves there) and African-Americans. Biden will appeal to veterans. Biden's wife will appeal to women.

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player:

@faithhopelove:
You are missing the point my man.Biden is the worst of all possible picks for Obama. With this selection, it shows him with a lack of confidence in his own ability. If he had of selected Bayh, he would have shown that he was unafraid to tackle the job. So now he has silenced his thunder. The focus will be on Biden because he has such a broad public based personality. He has been on talk shows too much(almost every sunday morning). He isn't a novelty with people. The public knows too much about him to be curious. Obama needed to select someone fresh because he is growing old in the public eye himself.

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faithhopelove:

Any further thoughts, KipTin?

Hopefully, you had a chance to read the Pew report. It appears that Pew's party i.d. number is based on a larger sample (17,543) than Rasmussen's party i.d. number (15,000). Moreover, the 9% advantage for Democrats that I quoted from this poll expands to a 13% advantage when leaners are included. I chose to use the more conservative number. Also, Pew reports that it found the Democratic party i.d. advantage in 2004 to be just 3%.

Has Rasmussen been accurate in the past? Yes and no. In 2000 he was not accurate; in 2004 he was accurate. 2008 is the rubber match.

If 2008 so far is any indication, then Rasmussen's findings should at least be questioned. As of May 7th, Rasmussen ranked 20th in terms of accuracy in 2008. See:

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/

Removing Rasmussen's numbers from the poll averages here gives Obama healthy leads in PA and OH, evens the race in Nevada, and narrows the gap in GA.

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faithhopelove:

player:

You are entitled to your opinion. I think my concrete arguments are more compelling than your abstract rhetoric.

Of course, Obama may still choose Bayh; and if he does, he will likely win Indiana's 11 electoral votes. Add Iowa's 7, and Obama wins the election.

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vandrop:

faithhopelove:

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=9410913&ch=4226716&src=news

Bayh's not gonna be chosen. I think Obama probably chose Biden a long time ago, as he is by far the best option. I say this because of the reasons faithopelove gave, and also, because those credentials look good on paper. And that's what the majority of America cares about with the VP.

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faithhopelove:

Here are some numbers (from Rasmussen, likely voters) to back up my pro-Biden arguments:

(All Likely Voters)
43% Favorable
38% Unfavorable

(Women)
43% Favorable
35% Unfavorable

(Catholics)
49% Favorable
34% Unfavorable

(65+)
49% Favorable
38% Unfavorable

Biden's strength with older voters (he's one of them) will not only help Obama in Florida, but also in Pennsylvania, another state with a large number of seniors.

States with above-average (12.4%) senior populations include (in no particular order):
Florida (16.8%)
Pennsylvania (15.2%)
Ohio (13.3%)
Iowa (14.6%)
Missouri (13.3%)
North Dakota (14.6%)
Wisconsin (13%)
Montana (13.8%)

Obama has been targeting all of these states.


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faithhopelove:

Two more reasons Biden is a solid choice for Obama:

1) having just visited Georgia, he takes the Russia-Georgia conflict off the table as a possible winning issue for McCain; and

2) he will likely out-perform McCain's rumored VP choice, the robotic Mitt Romney, in the VP debate.

McCain may instead choose Pawlenty or Portman, but they would not help McCain beyond their own home states (Minnesota and Ohio, respectively). The pro-choice Ridge is now off the table, as he would no longer be able to deliver Pennsylvania, and his presence on the ticket would depress turnout among conservative evangelicals, causing McCain to lose Colorado (Colorado Springs). Obama would win the election with the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado.

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player:

I checked the turnout in the democrat primary and compared it with the turnout in the 2004 general election. After all of the hype about historic turnouts and lines down around the corner for blocks, none of the totals of all democrat contenders combined could even equal the total number of republican votes cast in 2004 general election. I looked at every state. It wasn't even close in any of them. In NC, Clinton and Obama received about 1.5 mil total. That equaled the democrat 2004 general election turnout but the republicans still had a turnout of over 2.2 mil in the 2004 election. In every state, you see the same. So these polling companies are pulling someones leg with these sample models that they have been using. I expect that Obama will continue to drop because the pollsters will continue to give more weight to the republicans until it is at the 2004 level. I guess they have to keep the hype going to squeeze more money from the donors for these expensive tv ads. Its so phony. All the republicans have to do is show up and vote.

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saywhat90:

@player

comparing primary numbers to general election numbers is like comparing apples to oranges.in the 2004 democratic primary kerry won a total of 9.9 million votes. in fact all 4(including gen wesley clark) dem primary top runners did not equal the total of one of the dem (roughly 18 million per)candidates in 2008. 36 million total for both candidate to aroun 13 million or 14 million total for 2004.2008 almost tripled the number and thats not even counting john edwards. the general election had roughly 120 million votes in 2004. so its safe to assume that there was historic turnout for the democratic primary in 2008.and that it is likely that there will be an historic turnout in 2008 election.

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KipTin:

Obama already LOST on the Russia-Georgia conflict. His initial statement was so wimpy that he had to make two more. Biden cannot repair that damage.

Shall we not forget that Obama is running against McCain for President, not Biden? It is already happening (as I have observed on other websites) that even the Obamanation has elevated Biden to a much higher role. Now the inexperienced Obama will look even more diminished in comparison to both long-time experienced Senators Biden and McCain.

____________________

KipTin:

Sure ignore Rasmussen polls because you do not like the weight given to Republicans.

BTW... you got the numbers wrong "Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline TARGETS are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews)."

Which is NOT 15,000.

Further: "For the month of August, the TARGETS are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the TARGETS were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated."

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

@player,

I'm sorry, but you're wrong on Biden. Before today I was kinda hesitant on him, but after watching nonstop cable news all morning, I realize one thing: The Washington media LOVES him. He has a compelling life story. He's very well respected, even among Republicans, on foreign policy, and he's a fighter -- something everyone liked about Hillary Clinton.

When you say that Biden is the "worst possible pick" you expose your spin. If you intended to make an educated analysis you would consider all factors. But you throw out an obnoxious proclamation, because actual analysis doesn't lend itself well to spin. And your citing of the Fournier AP piece, saying Obama "lacks confidence" by choosing Biden, you further expose your spin hypocrisy.

Or, you're scared :)

By the way, Biden owns one house, and he's the least wealthy Senator. God I hope McCain picks Romney. Hes worth, what 3X more than Cindy/John?

Be afraid. Be very afraid. Obama is a smart guy, and he knows what he's doing. And that makes you nervous. Just admit it :)

____________________

faithhopelove:

KipTin:

As I've written previously, I'm not arguing that Rasmussen polls should simply be ignored; I'm arguing that they currently have a disproportionate influence on the polling averages because Rasmussen is currently putting the most polls in the field. As the election season progresses, more polls from other pollsters will be released, giving the Rasmussen polls less influence--which may improve Obama's numbers, given that Rasmussen appears to lean right (for a number of reasons that I've named repeatedly). At the present time, Rasmussen's polls are relatively favorable to McCain in GA, PA, OH, NV, and AK--all swing states.

Looking again at Rasmussen's web-site, I see that you are correct about the 45,000 figure (I was using the monthly number, rather than the three-month total). Thank you for this correction; I now have more confidence in Rasmussen's party i.d. percentages (though Pew's numbers may still prove to be more accurate).

My questions about Rasmussen's non-contact with cell-phone only voters, his likely voter screen, and his other weighting (other than party i.d.) remain. I'd be glad to learn more about these things from you or anyone else.

As for Biden, I still think he is a solid pick for all of the reasons I have named. The Russia-Georgia situation is not one of the main reasons. Current national polls do not show this issue causing "damage" to Obama. He leads in today's Rasmussen tracker (of likely voters) by 3 points w/o leaners and by 2 points with leaners. This poll is the 12th consecutive national poll showing Obama ahead of McCain.

I think Biden will help Obama, albeit only slightly--as you say, Obama is at the top of the ticket, not Biden. This decision likely narrows McCain's choices to Romney (help in Michigan?), Pawlenty (help in Minnesota?), Portman (help in Ohio?), or Crist (help in Florida?). McCain will probably pick whichever of these he thinks is most likely to help him win one of these states.

It's possible that one of the reasons Obama is pulling ads from Florida is that he thinks Crist will be McCain's pick. Then again, I will not be surprised if Obama is on the air in Florida again in a couple weeks.

Even if Obama chooses not to return to the airwaves in the 7 states in which he is suspending ads, he remains on the air in 11 states, of which 7 are red states that total 67 electoral votes (OH, IN, IA, MO, CO, NM, NV). In all of these states, the Roman Catholic Church is the largest denomination (think Biden). Obama needs to win the Kerry states plus 1 or 2 (at most 3) of these states to prevail.

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zotz:

"Now the inexperienced Obama will look even more diminished in comparison to both long-time experienced Senators Biden and McCain."

KipTin- You would have said that had Obama chosen any strong Democrat. Obama's appeal IS that he is different and new. So the pair compliment each other. You were really hoping that he had chosen Kaine so you could clobber Obama on poor judgement. You really are a hard core spin-junkie ready to twist the news in anyway that helps your side. Truth is your enemy

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faithhopelove:

Update: Gallup's tracker, just released, shows Obama up 2 over McCain. The poll was conducted entirely before the Biden announcement--so no bounce yet.

I predict a VP pick bounce of a couple points, to be seen in the polls Monday or Tuesday. I predict another bounce, again of a couple points, after Obama's Thursday speech, to be seen in the polls next Saturday or Sunday. I predict that by next Saturday or Sunday morning polls will show Obama with a 5 or 6 point lead--say, Obama 50%, McCain 44%.

McCain's strategy to step on Obama's bounce with his VP announcemnt shortly after Obama's speech is an excellent one. It should limit Obama's bounce to 4 or 5 points. Then McCain will get a bounce of his own from his convention. When the dust clears in mid-September, I predict Obama will lead by about 3 points.


____________________

John:

Just to add to the party id debate, here is the Gallup party id numbers:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109774/Obama-Lags-Democratic-Support.aspx

These are registered voters compared to Rasmussen likely voters.

Here is the methodology of rasmussen polling.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology

____________________

faithhopelove:

Rasmussen has just released a poll of Mississippi that finds McCain expanding his lead. This state is not among Obama's 18 target states. (Anecdotally, a friend of mine who lives in MS tells me that Obama has no chance there due to "racism"--his observation, not mine.)

This poll lends further support to the idea I floated yesterday that the reason McCain is keeping things close on a national level is that he is solidifying his support in southern states (for another example, see yesterday's TN poll). This growth in southern support does not help him win additional electoral votes.

The Biden pick is more likely to help Obama in the Northeast and Midwest (both heavily Roman Catholic) than in the South (heavily Southern Baptist).

____________________

faithhopelove:

Thanks for the link, John.

Gallup shows a 7 point Dem advantage, about the same as Rasmussen (good news for McCain); but with leaners, the Dem advantage grows to 10 (good news for Obama).

____________________

player:

@SayWhat90:
Until that is proven, you have to go with the facts. The facts are the 2004 exit polls. Republicans are being under sampled on purpose. It is a game to make money. Who do you think is paying for these polls? You seen in 2004 that the race wasn't as close as the cable pundits let on. It never was. It wasn't the swift boat ads that doomed Kerry. That became a commercial bonanza for cable tv. They got more viewers so they got more advertisements. Kerry never had a chance from the get go.

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zotz:

This election will be won or lost in the battleground states so national polls, as long as they are within 5 points or so, are not very useful. NV, CO, NM, MN, OH, PA, MT, NC, VA, FL, MI, I may have forgot a couple but these states will decide the outcome. Polling CA and TN maybe interesting for those that live there but it really is a waste of time and money for those interested in who is going to win.

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cinnamonape:

"eugene:
obama is a idiot,he had a chance to take mccain out,tuesday mccain made a huge gaff about the draft but obama decided to run the the house gaff "

The Obama campaign is gonna hold that comment until the time than college students are coming back to school to register...just after the Convention.

It'll also be revived in get-out-the-vote efforts. They'll be targeting both college age students, and their parents (and parents of teenagers).

They'll tie it in with comments about the need to further expand our military activity...not just "100 years in Iraq...the new South Korea", but Afghanistan and Georgia.

They'll back it up with comments from top Generals about how the military is stretched to the breaking point.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"eugene:
obama is a idiot,he had a chance to take mccain out,tuesday mccain made a huge gaff about the draft but obama decided to run the the house gaff "

The Obama campaign is gonna hold that comment until the time than college students are coming back to school to register...just after the Convention.

It'll also be revived in get-out-the-vote efforts. They'll be targeting both college age students, and their parents (and parents of teenagers).

They'll tie it in with comments about the need to further expand our military activity...not just "100 years in Iraq...the new South Korea", but Afghanistan and Georgia.

They'll back it up with comments from top Generals about how the military is stretched to the breaking point.

And then they'll tack on one of McCain's comments about why he won't support the "New GI Bill" that would make college affordable for TODAY'S modern soldiers...because if they can afford college they won't stay in the military.

____________________



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