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POLL: Rasmussen Colorado, Minnesota (8/13)


Rasmussen Reports
Mode: IVR

Colorado (8/13/08; 500 LV, 4.5%)
McCain 49, Obama 48
(July: Obama 50, McCain 47)

Sen: Udall (D) 50, Schaffer (R)
(July: Udall 49, Schaffer 46)

Minnesota (8/13/08; 500 LV, 4.5%)
Obama 49, McCain 45
(July: Obama 52, McCain 39)

Sen: Coleman (R-i) 49, Franken (D) 46
(July: Franken 49, Coleman 46)

 

Comments
Stillow:

I still can't belive Franken was nominated.....

Any other Dem would probably steal htis seat from Coleman whose in a heavily blue state combined with the GOP brand being in the mud right now......bad move for the dems in Minnesota!

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Clint Cooper:

For once, I agree with Stillow. Franken was a bad choice and he was not vetted. Still, I think Democratic turnout will be a little higher than pollsters are projecting in Minnesota. We shall see.

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Stillow:

Don't make a habit of agreeing!
80% also have a fair or better opinion of Pawlenty. He's rumored to be a Veep option for McCain, wonder if by some miracle it would throw the state pink....

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josephj:

@Stillow:
Stewart Smally is good enough, he's smart enough, and dog-gawnit, people like him

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bennydtown:

Eric, you forgot to include the Schaffer number from the latest poll for Col Senate (42%).

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Another Mike:

No first-tier candidates stepped up in MN, so it's hard for me to be critical of MN Democrats for selecting Franken. Do you all really believe Ciresi (sp?) would be doing better than -3 to the incumbent? I would love to have a stronger candidate than Franken, but there simply wasn't one running.

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FearItself:

Anybody have any idea why Rasmussen's polling of this race is so much more favorable for Franken than any other recent polling? Look at the chart; the "house effect" between Rasmussen and everyone else amounts to (about) a ten-point difference, on average.

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player:

I have noticed something with a lot of these polls and the sample percentages that are given to democrats. Some have been over the 50% mark and some barely give republicians a 25% mark with the rest divided between dems and Indps. I think that these models won't be accurate come november. I expect that a large percentage of these newly registered 18-24 year olds will have something else to do on election day, and more republicans will show than what is projected.

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Stillow:

I imagine the larger democratic sampling is because many states simplyh have more registered Dems than Repubs.
I agree with you on the youth vote, they never show up...more dead people probably vote than youths........

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axt113:

Stillow, you forget that many states allow early voting/absentee voting, look for Obama to benefit in places like Ohio from this as, Ohio's new voting law for example, will allow people to register and vote on the same day in early October. Look for the Dems to capitalize on this at College campuses.

I don't expect the Youth vote to be bigger than the senior citizen vote, but I expect it to rise over 2004 by a substantial amount

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marctx:

YES! McCain leading. Taking back CO. We need more polls out of OH, MI, IN, VA.

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Stillow:

@axt113

Ya you're probably right......in the spirit of everyone's favorite Chicago Democrat, vote early and vote often!!

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axt113:

marctx, before you uncork the champaenge, you probably want to notice that the races is still a tossup, last month the margin as +3 Obama and now its +1 McCain, both results are within the margin of error and considering its only a 500 person sample in one night, i'd be careful if I were you to read anything beyond the race being a tie.

Stillow, you're only upset because this won't add votes to McCain, in fact this is very legal way to vote, no different structurally than normal absentee voting.

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TheVoice_99:

ROTFLMAO @marctx!!!


Yeah, he's "leading" all right. Too bad Karl rove might as well have done these polls. rass is ass. repeat often.

let's see if colorado remains even close after the convention.....and not from a repub pollster.

by the way, if you trolls are so confident about a mccain win, please lay down some cash over at intrade.com - make some money off your prediction.

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Stillow:

@axt113

Heh, I am not upset, I'm almost positive CO goes Obama...the vote early vote often was just a wise crack from old time Chicago politics....!

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Undecided:

GOP may be suing Ohio if their secretary of state does not get her act together. This register/early vote is a gray areas (read loophole) in the new Ohio election laws AND the Ohio SS is only going to use it in urban areas and on campuses. GOP says use it EVERYWHERE or see you in court.

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Undecided:

Why so tough on Franken? Isn't Minnesota the state that elected Jesse Ventura as Governor from the Reform Party?

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marctx:

I am excited that the Clintons get two nights at the convention and her name placed in nomination. With the scheduled protests, women's march, fliers, and planned PUMA commercials, I'm sure this convention will run smoothly. Just like the rules committee meeting. Remember that? I'm not sure but candidates coming out of split party conventions don't usually win. Obama's chief surrogate Jack Caferty says it best, "Obama looks like a wimp" because the Clintons are walking all over him at the conventions. :)

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Undecided:

RCP just moved Minnesota to toss-up status.

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zotz:

I didn't know Franken was that close. Amazing! August polls have to be taken with a grain of salt. The Veep situation will reveal a lot. I still can't believe McCain will pick Tom Ridge. That would be just like throwing the values voters under the bus. If Republicans are not pro-life then what's left other than tax cuts for the rich and military spending. That will not be enough, especially when McCain is so luke warm about religion. The Dems are also trying to defeat themselves. This election is turning into a soap opera.

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player:

If Barack Obama can't put a foot down and get his way with the Clintons, then how in the world would he be able to negotiate with the Muslims, or Russians for all that matters? This works against him or so it would seem. You can never tell with this guy. It was reported that high oil prices would hurt his chances because he didn't want to drill. All at once the oil prices fall like a rock.

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ndirish11:

The same people who say that Rasmussen is unreliable because they are a republican pollster say nothing when a democratic pollster polls their candidate better. Rasmussen was the second most accurate pollster in last election, so get the facts straight.

Colorado is a pure toss-up.

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Stillow:

The Russia / Georgia conflict has a chance of getting way out of hand. There is a lot at stake here for Europe with natural gas pipelines, etc coming thru Georgia. Putin may even have aspirations of reforming the Soviet Union. If this conflict worsens we should see a heavy break of voters to McCain. Obama can't tie his shoes without a teleprompter, I can't imagine this country would vote him in if there is a major world conflict going on. I think Putin is salivating at the mouth at the prospect of Obama getting elected because leftists will usually appease and avoid conflict at all costs, even to their own detrement.
This is going to be extremely interesting the next few days...

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zotz:

Dear Stillow
I am not so sure Americans are gung-ho about fighting Russia. The Euros are afraid to take on the Taliban much less Putin. The US military has other priorities as I'm sure you are aware. Maybe we should look at the map and reroute the pipeline. Fighting them in eastern Europe makes even less sense than the Iraq war. McCain said recently that Russia was behaving badly because in the 21st century countries don't invade each other. McCain isn't smart enough to see the irony in that comment. This guy may have been sharp once but now he is just too old.

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Stillow:

No one wants another war or any war for that matter. But if the issue escalates into a NATO conflict we are forced to get involved. You have Pland now accepting the missile defense shield which is ticking off Russia. Sometimes conflict finds you wheather you're looking for it or not....and you don't want a rookie in the White House in a time like that, your independents will break to McCain if national security becomes a dominant issue....every poll shows people trust hi more on that issue.

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player:

If Obama is elected, this military action by Russia will surely widen to other countries within its range. Also the Muslims will be acting up like no ones business. China will just ignore everything the U.S. wants. Thats the problem with electing a guy that doesn't have any nationalism in him. He is absent of any metal for this country so nothing sticks to him. The press doesn't help him on purpose. He just doesn't have any conservatism to provoke them.He is so liberal that they can't find anything. Hillary Clinton has a lot of conservatism. Look at how they go after her. They go after her the same way they went after republican conservatives who they thought they hope to catch in a falsehood. Look at how many whoppers that Barack Obama has told the public yet the press says nothing. Its almost like he doesn't actually exist in the media mainstream feed.

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thoughtful:

Guys,

These polls are fairly well what you'd expect. Tight race Mid-West and West battles. We need to look at OH,IN, MI.

We know from the other polls that something like 30% is undecided!

On the Obama Veep pick I am told Sebelius is out of it, and Bayh is looking a better and better bet. Michael Bloomberg's name also has been cropping up! The economy is the predominant issue and I think the campaign thinks that Bloomberg will help with Florida as well!

Re:Russia

I take the contrary view: the majority of US voters do not want the same guys McCain, Bolton and Perle who took us to war with Iraq, take us to war hot or cold with Russia!

with regards to Afghanistan for example there is a much larger British presence there than in Iraq. I think you are giving a disservice to NATO. Afghanistan is in a mess as it needed undivided attention from 09/11/01, the Neo-Cons blew it!

Georgia: The Georgian Government were told by the US government not to send their military into South Ossetia. The Georgians are not trusted by Western Europeans, both the French and the Germans warned NATO partners of the Georgian Governments reckless intentions last Spring.

The Russians see South Ossetia in the same way as the West saw Kosovo, Georgia in the same way as we saw Serbia.

The Russians themselves share a lot of common political and economic issues with the US and Europe. They do not want to be isolated! A lot of the comments I read are really 20th century.

Europe is now on the very brink of recession. The US economy isn't in great shape! Whilst wars are good for economies, look at what happened to defense stocks in the last few days! Tax payers have to pay for it, I can't see the US tax payer, the Chinese,the Japanese, or the Arab States propping up the US Economy to fund McCain's hot or cold war with Russia.

The 30 % of the undecided electorate has a clear choice and time to make up is mind and changing events too!

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Undecided:

I see that Pollster.com has North Carolina as lean GOP now and is no longer a tossup.

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Undecided:

Last I knew South Ossetia was part of Georgia. Has that changed? What are you going to say when Russia topples the democratically-elected government of Georgia with military force? And then the Ukraine? And then...? How 21st century is that?

Also how about Russia sending troops and bombs into Chechnya? ...A breakaway region within Russian boundaries.

So you really think the Russian government really "shares a lot of common political and economic issues with the US and Europe?" Do not be fooled. Putin et al have BIG plans for expansion of power and territory.

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Undecided:

I think zotz that you misinterpreted McCain's statements or did not hear the complete speech or read the complete text... aka he was talking about democratically-elected governments. That Obama followers compare Russia invading Georgia with Iraq is non-sensical and irrelevant.

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thoughtful:

@undecided

NC - The shift to lean is a Rasmuson poll showing a 5% lead to mcCain being published later today.

With regards your personal views in reaction to some insight, i was providing. Please re-read my comments, Both Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Mekel are right wing European leaders. I am giving you their view, I am offering an opinion borne out my US reaction to the current wars of voters likely attitudes

Reflect back on the Vietnam War we fought that to stop the spread of Communism.

We lost, the spread was one of nationalism not communism.

Now returning to Russian nationalism: The Russian governments biggest job is taking their economy from being largely 3rd world to developed world. Once the consumer genni is out of the bottle difficult to get back in. Eurpoe needs Russian energy resource and Russia needs Europe's goods and services.

That's the economic reality!

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marctx:

thoughtful:

Nooooooooo! Sebelius is out???? She would have been perfect. Oh well, I guess Obama lied again about not taking geography into consideration for his VP pick if he picks Bayh. If Obama is elected president the US will fall to fourth on the superpower list. Russia, China, Boardless Islam, then US.

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ndirish11:

Would it be really good for Obama and to create unity to pick a women whose name is not Hillary Clinton for VP? That would be a even bigger slap in the face.

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ndirish11:

Would it be really good for Obama and to create unity to pick a women whose name is not Hillary Clinton for VP? That would be a even bigger slap in the face.

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thoughtful:

Listen I am not completely authorative at all

Sebelius s co-chairiong the convention!

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Stillow:

It will come down to preception. The Russian conflict is more serious than people realize. They are about to topple a democracy by force. Putin has dreams of the old days and Soviet glory! Obama's respone was to get a UN security council resolution condeming Russia's actions. Can someone tell Obama Russia is on the security council and has veto power....can someone on his staff at least teach him some foreign polcy basics......there is no way this country would vote him into office if foreign affairs are the dominant issue.

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djneedle83:

Colorado is all about the ground-game.

The convention should be able to give Obama the bump he needs in Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Alaska, Montana, North-Dakota, Nevada, and the remaining blue-leaning states.

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djneedle83:

The polls are still underestimating the Obama turnout by 3%-5% in most states.

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Paul:

Elections seems to be boiling down to Obama needing Ohio or Virginia or Colorado to win. This assumes Obama caries all Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico. So Obama needs to eke out a small win in one of these three states to win. I expect significant resources will go to Colorado in the next three months.

As for Minnesota, this is a must win state and assumed state for Obama ... any different outcome would make an Obama win unlikely at best.

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