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POLL: Rasmussen Florida, Alabama


Rasmussen Reports
6/26/08 - 500 LV, 4,5% (for each state)

Florida
McCain 48, Obama 41

Alabama
McCain 51, Obama 36
Sen: Sessions (R-i) 58, Figures (D) 34

 

Comments
Undecided:

Wow. The very favorable/very unfavorable ratings are striking. Whereas, Obama usually has lots of enthusiastic support (very favorable) and beats out McCain by a large margin, this poll shows Obama at 27% (typical) but now McCain at 23% is competing in the enthusiasm category.

In national polls, Obama and McCain are tied for overall favorability at 55% and 54% respectively. In contrast, this Florida poll indicates a significant overall favorability rating for McCain (57%) when compared to Obama (44%) which is a 7 point decline for Obama. Additionally, Obama has a larger than typical "very unfavorable" rating of 40% up from 29% from a week ago.

Apparently, offshore drilling in Florida is not as unpopular as some assumed. Yes = 59% equal to national support.

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onelightonvoice:

Yeah, this number will change, and radically I predict. The secret lies within the polls crosstabs. People give bush a 48% poor rating, yet only 41% will vote for obama? huh?

Looks like we have low info voters here. Once the ground game gets going with Clinton, in about two months, it will be a ten point swing I predict.

Look for the turnout operation to be dramatic in florida. There won't be the voter suppression of AAs you saw in 2000. Jeb and Harris are gone and a watchful eye will be kept down there.

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onelightonvoice:

Rather low sample size from Rass - once again. Here is Quinns survey on 5/22:


May 22, 2008
POLL: Quinnipiac Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania

Quinnipiac University

Florida
n=1,419 RV
McCain 45, Obama 41... Clinton 48, McCain 41

Once Clinton campaigns for obama, it will change things a bit.

By the way, nice try with the offshore spin. Too bad there haven't been any ads yet showing florida's beaches turning from blue to black. That should change some minds.

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Jeff:

The May poll is a bit stale; much more recent Quinnipiac poll had it 47/43 for Obama (1,453 RVs, June 9-16).

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Andrew_in_California:

Hmm surprising outcome over the oil drilling question which I guess shows how different the Pacific States are from the Atlantic states. Gas does effect people in the South more as their salaries are smaller than other coastal states.

I would suspect the 6% other vote greatly though.

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ndirish11:

Yeah this poll sucks because it isn't for Obama.

-onelightonvoice
Just because people don't think Bush is good, means that they McCain is the same. Maybe, Obama saying that so much finally got to you?

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ndirish11:

Yeah this poll sucks because it isn't for Obama.

-onelightonvoice
Just because people don't think Bush is good, means that they McCain is the same. Maybe, Obama saying that so much finally got to you?

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political_junki:

ndirish11:
McSame is caricature of Bush. You dont need Obama to tell you that. You need common sense.

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Undecided:

No spin of offshore drilling in Florida. I repeated info from the Rasmussen polls.

Note also that China is drilling offshore of Cuba and the distance from Florida is very little.

Listening to Chris Matthews Hardball, all the analysts think that Florida will not go Democrat this year with or without Hillary.

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desirous:

China is not drilling off the coast of Florida. That is a white lie, and it does no good to our cause to keep repeating a lie.

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Undecided:

FACT: A 1977 treaty divides the Straits of Florida halfway between the U.S. (Florida) and Cuba, which included access to extensive underwater oil and gas fields.

FACT: The Cuban Gulf of Mexico is open for oil exploration and development. There is an exclusive economic zone running along the north coast and down past the western tip of Cuba. It was parceled into lease blocks for foreign exploration in 1999.

FACT: Exploratory drilling has/is taking place, and Cuba is/has negotiated with several foreign nations (including China) for leases.

FACT: Cuba has exploration leases with foreign companies as close as 60 miles off Florida's southern coast.


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brambster:

@Undecided

I hate to exchange non polling counterpoints, but you are spouting false information about drilling. This is nothing but fear-mongering to get people to do something that would benefit oil companies. Ask the people in Santa Barbara (1969) how they feel about off-shore drilling.

http://www.miamiherald.com/campaign08/story/567156.html
The renewed efforts prompted Florida Sen. Mel Martinez, who opposes drilling off Florida's coast, to take to the Senate floor Wednesday to -- as his office put it -- ''debunk the myth'' of China drilling in Cuban waters.

''Reports to the contrary are simply false,'' Martinez said, his remarks delivered just before Cheney spoke. ``They are akin to urban legends. China drilling off the coast of Cuba only 60 miles from the Keys, that is not taking place. . . Any talk of using some fabricated Cuba-China connection as an argument to change U.S. policy has no merit.''

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sherman:

This poll makes more sense than the Quinnipiac one. Florida will be tough for Obama, but it's still close. Turnout will be the key.

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Lompe:

Anyone who has access to the Rasmussen crosstabs? Why do they always have good McCain polling?

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Undecided:

My stated FACTS are indeed facts. If you disagree with any one of them please be specific and state a reliable source as opposed to a Democratic political talking point.

Although China may not be at this very moment drilling, it has negotiated agreements/leases with Cuba to do so. As do Spain, Norway, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Canada, Venezuela, and Brazil. An area of 43,000-square-miles up to the half-way point in the Straits of Florida, which is actually less then 60 miles. The total width varies from 60 to 100 miles.

(Source: Jul 24 2004 Reuters published in Energy Bulletin)

2006 CNN Money Report "China, Cuba reported in Gulf oil partnership" at http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/09/news/economy/oil_cuba/index.htm

Also April 2008 "Cuban off-shore oil drilling put off until 2009"
http://www.reuters.com/article/OILINT/idUSN1631398320080416

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