Pollster.com

I am a bit surprised by Barr's low number in Georgia. Always thought he'd do better there...

I have yet to see a poll where Barr does better than 1-2% in Georgia. The analysts are just quacking like usual.

Virginia is -the- southern battleground state. Everything else is.. well.. McCain.

Wow, I'm really surprised by those Alaska numbers. I've come to grips with the fact that Stevens might lose, but 8 points without even an indictment?

The great many voters in Alaska are registered as unaffiliated, and the Rasmussen narrative states "Among unaffiliated voters, Begich leads by a two-to-one margin."

The next largest group of registered voters is Republicans, and 20% lean toward Begich.

Begich is also viewed favorably at 63%. Republican governor Sarah Palin is performing at 69% good-excellent. It makes sense that independent minded Alaskans would vote for the person and not the party.

Regarding favorable ratings in Alaska... McCain now at 63% (+6 from June). Obama at 53% for both June and July. Interestingly, McCain remains at 45% (same as June) without leaners.

As in other polls... Obama has a higher VERY favorable rating than McCain (26%-18%) but also a higher very unfavorable rating at 30% (McCain 13%.)

Regarding Georgia... without leaners Barr has 5%, but the followup question drops him down to 1%.

Compared to June Rasmussen, McCain's advantage over Obama is 1 point more in AK and GA, both states still showing likely GOP. As to Senate in GA, GOP candidate advantage is 3 points more, showing safe GOP. The story here is Alaska Senate --- this Rasmussen poll reflects a 10 point turnaround from June poll with change from GOP +2 to DEM +8. This is definitely a possible change in a Senate seat from GOP to DEM.

Those are the two states that routinely overstate Democratic strength in polling. I've been looking at them very closely for betting prospects.

Unfortunately, the markets are not fooled so far, with the GOP ticket heavily favored in both states. That 11 point gap in Georgia won't help matters. Previous margins had been laughably low, like 2. I always root for screwed up polls to falsely influence market odds.

That Alaska senate race might be interesting. I won on Lisa Murkowski as an underdog to Tony Knowles in '04, confident the consensus 4 point edge to Knowles would prove baloney. It was worse than that, pure manure. Right now Begich is roughly 65/35 chalk.

The juicy presidential target looks to be Indiana. McCain is only 60/40. For a state with a double digit red partisan index every recent cycle, and north of +18% in '04, that is tempting as heck, '08 state polls be damned. Unfortunately, all the sharp guys I correspond with have the same idea. Many are waiting for Obama's VP choice to ne named, and assuming it's not Bayh, they plan to indulge in McCain contracts in Indiana.

I might not be as quick to pull the trigger. Obama will win nationally but his market backers demonstrated severe novice tendencies during the primaries, shoving betting lines to ridiculous digits in California and Ohio, ignoring demographic realities. Maybe they'll be content to ignore partisan tendencies in the fall.