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POLL: Rasmussen IA GOP, NH Primary


Two new Rasmussen Reports automated surveys of likely primary voters/caucus participants in Iowa and New Hampshire (Iowa conducted 12/17, New Hampshire conducted 12/18) finds:

  • Among 496 likely Republican caucus participants in Iowa, former Gov. Mike Huckabee runs at 28%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 27%, Sen. John McCain at 14%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Sen. Fred Thompson both at 8%, Rep. Ron Paul at 6%.
  • Among an unknown number of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, Romney runs at 31%, McCain at 27%, Giuliani at 13%, Huckabee at 11%, Paul at 7%.
  • Among 791 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, Sen. Hillary Clinton runs at 31%, Sen. Barack Obama at 28%, former Sen. John Edwards at 18%, former Gov. Bill Richardson at 8%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 4% for Republican caucus participants in Iowa, 3% for likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, and 4% for likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire.

 

Comments
Paul:

After IA and NH, I would predict that Thompson would need to win SC to remain viable, If he does not drop out by then. McCain has always felt comfortable in NH, but one would think he needs to win NH to stay in the race. Edward's losses in IA, NH and SC would seem to leave him on the outside, perhaps not continuing. Obama appears to be catching Clnton and that race could last into or past March. Giuliani appears to have been hurt by Huckabee as well as McCain's recent improvement. Overall, realistically it seems to be a 2 candidate race for Dems (leaving out Edwards), and a 4 candidate race for Reps (leaving out Thompson). Paul is now in my book the maverick, perhaps staying in the race, given his internet fund raising ability, so that Paul could bring the viable number for Reps back to 5.

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