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POLL: Rasmussen Illinois, North Dakota


Rasmussen Reports
7/8/08 - 500 LV each, 4.5%

Illinois
Obama 50, McCain 37
Sen: Durbin (D-i) 63, Sauerberg (R) 28

North Dakota
Obama 43, McCain 43
Gov: Hoeven (R-i) 67, Mathern (D) 27

 

Comments
Mike_in_CA:

that's it, i'm officially sick of the CW that keeps putting Montana and ND into the safe or even "Leaning" McCain column. They are, out and out, pure tossups. 6 EVs that McCain absolutely cannot afford to lose.

The Sabatos, Cooks, MSNBCs, CNNs and other map-makers of the world who keep giving McCain ND and MT as locks are embarassing. It's a different election this time around.

Obama has not trailed in a national poll since May. He is peforming very well in state polls. ENOUGH WITH THE "Close Race" bullsh*t. Let's all boycott MSM so their ratings go down. I'm sick of this crap.

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skibum1981:

Interesting ND poll result.

That Illinois poll result is pretty hilarious though. No chance it's only 13 points. No chance whatsoever. Obama is very popular all over the state, even in the very southern tip of Illinois, where it's about as "red" as red can be...

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Pat:

Mike-in-CA:

My sentiments exactly. It is getting ridiculous. They all want to show this race close to attract viewers. The same as they did with the primary. The only good news is that all their ratings are already down considerably compared to past few months.

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Undecided:

You forgot or did not realize that southern Illinois (which Hillary won those counties in the primary) is part of the Appalachia region with white rural voters.

Note both candidates are tied among those with no party affiliation.

Also that both candidates have a 60% favorable rating in Illinois... rather red, blue, or in between.

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ndirish11:

Why is everyone in such a rush to get this over with? Just let the thing play out. I don't get why Obama supporters are bashing the media when all the media does is praise him and also every Electoral Map I have seen Obama is winning and usually by a good amount.

There has not even been one debate yet, the numbers could change a lot after that. The race has just begun, and it is too early to call someone the winner.

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kingsbridge77:

Sometimes I think Rasmussen does these shocking polls in order to get attention. He knows that unusual poll results in any given states attract readers to his website.

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onelightonvoice:

pat/mike in ca-

Exactly. The bs is so they can drive up their ratings so people will actually watch, thinking there is "drama", when it was over long, long ago. Just like the pathetic primary race. That was over in February. It is all about money I guess. People get tired hearing about how much of a douche Bush is, day in, day out.

As a side note, why should Obama donors help pay off Clinton's debt again? She made him waste millions of his supporters' money after february, when it was obvious it was over. She can go.......well, you know.

undecided - you obviously don't live in Illinois. Look at the map of his senate race. He won everywhere....and by large margins. Why would those voters switch? I see him winning by at least 20 points in Illinois.

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Mike_in_CA:

@ndirish11,

A lot of the independent maps that you see online show a big Obama lead, but the more traditional, "well respected" media maps show a much loser race. Just go to CNN (which shows NM as leaning McCain!) or MSNBC or Larry Sabato (just out with a map today that has WI as "tossup", which we know is just pure rubbish, especially considering the new Ras poll of Obama +11), and Charlie Cook (who has it at McCain 240-219 Obama).

All pure hogwash. Relying on past voting is not a good way to make these maps.

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Dan_in_upstate_NY:

Fascinating ND result. This will be a thrilling election to watch!

Overall I gotta agree with Mike_in_CA. But a note of a caution is warranted about IL. Obama's senate results from 04 are not a reliable indicator of his support statewide, given that he was running against a quasi-libertarian freak show (Alan Keyes) who entered the race at the last minute after Ryan dropped out during the summer. Also, we should note that Obama lost a number of southern counties in the February primary against Clinton; he also lost a number of 'ethnic' (Polish, etc.) neighborhoods in Chicago against her.

So while he will certainly win IL by a wide margin, not everyone in the Land of Lincoln loves him.

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onelightonvoice:

Illinois will be +20 (minimum) for Obama. Oh yea, there are ummmm, how shall we say, "appalachia type rural" voters down south, so McCain might get some from there. But Bill Foster just won in a real red district thanks to Obama's coattails. Where the people are, Obama cleans up.

The Polish and some white suburbs won by Clinton will go to Obama, not McCain. Hillary was born and raised in Illinois, remember? Sad, but true.

In the fall, many repubs will stay home since they know their vote is meaningless in Illinois - that'll add a good 5 points onto the total.

ND will likely go to Obama if he wants to campaign there. Nice, it is shaping up like a north vs south election.......

I still think many southern states have a good chance to flip: MS, GA, SC, NC, FL.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

Two points...

1.) They are still polling Illinois? There's no situation where Obama loses Illinois and polling still matters. If he loses that state, then he's going to lose by 200 or 300 EC votes.

2.) Tied in ND? I think that's too good to be true.

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Tom:

I'm to the point now of thinking of "conventional wisdom" as "chattering class stupidity." I realize they are going on a lot of history and what happened during the primaries, but these numbers have got to indicate that North Dakota, Indiana, and Montana are leaners at best, and should definately be considered toss-up states.

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Undecided:

In response to onelightonvoice:
Part I--I specifically referenced the Democratic PRIMARY where Clinton won 14 counties in Illinois... almost all in the Appalachian region as I originally stated.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IL

Why change the topic to the 2004 Illinois Senate race?... Which was a BIG JOKE and is totally irrelevant in the context of the Presidential election. (Obama's competition was Alan Keyes who did not even live in Illinois.)

Part II-- Reasons for Obama to help Hillary pay off $10 million debt:
1. Bill and Hillary helped Obama to raise a large amount of funds for his 2004 Senate Race.
2. Obama wants the Hillaryraisers to help him raise a large amount of funds for the general election.
3. Paying off Hillary's debt sooner rather than later frees her up to vigorously campaign for Obama.
4. Obama's help will be a show of good faith that will help Hillary's supporters jump onto his bandwagon.

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Undecided:

I find it amusing that if the polls do not favor Obama that there is some kind of conspiracy theory regarding collusion with the MSM.

How about thinking of a poll as a single sample at one point in time, which does not mean much on its own? In the case of Rasmussen--they will be polling most states quite extensively (more than monthly) after the conventions.

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Paul:

There is no reason to believe that North Dakota is not in play for Obama. For Governor, Republican is ahead by 40 points. For President, even up. Obama won the primary over Clinton 61% - 37%.

I can find only three North Dakota polls between McCain and Obama, two during the primary season and this Rasmussen poll. If you use this poll, or the average of the three polls, this is a toss-up or leaning McCain. Zogby in his electoral map has this state as McCain but he did not include North Dakota in his breakouts, so I can not compare the demographics against other states.

There are any number of scenarios where these three electoral votes could swing the election.

As to Illinois, only question is size of victory. Based on my analysis thss far, I would say final numbers in Illinois will be Obama 56, McCain 40, Nader 1, Barr 3.

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Undecided:

Just to clarify....North Dakota was a Caucus and not a primary... with less than 19K voters.


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