Obama 44, McCain 42... McCain 45, Clinton 42
McCain 55, Obama 34... McCain 53, Clinton 39
Sen: Roberts 52, Slattery 40
McCain 57, Obama 33... Clinton 53, McCain 39
The fact that 51% of the Iowa sample gave Bush a fair to excellent on his job approval indicates that this is a fairly conservative slanted poll. I would give the democrats an extra four or five points.
Posted on May 15, 2008 7:18 PM
Posted on May 15, 2008 8:05 PM
The fact that 51% of the Iowa sample gave Bush a fair to excellent on his job approval indicates that this is a fairly conservative slanted poll.
Fair means so-so, therefore I don't find this result as outrageous as you do.
Only 33% found Bush's job "excellent or good", which matches most other polls.
No other poll, and correct me if I'm wrong, includes an option for "fair", therefore it would be impossible to compare this 51% with other polls. It would be comparing apples and oranges.
Posted on May 15, 2008 10:23 PM
Those Arkansas numbers are bizarre:
McCain 57 Obama 33 and Clinton 53 McCain 39
Are they even paying attention to the issues in Arkansas?! The same people who would vote for Clinton over McCain would vote for McCain over Obama?! This makes no sense at all. I mean it can't be the race issue can it?
Posted on May 16, 2008 10:24 AM
Your are kidding, right? Race issue???
Remember that Hillary was First Lady of Arkansas for 12 years and she is well-liked in her former home state. She won the Democratic primary 70%-26%... and notably Arkansas has had quite a mix of Democratic and GOP governors.
This particular Arkansas poll indicates that if Hillary were the Democratic nominee then Arkansas would indeed be a swing state as her people have said.
I myself was surprised about how close the polls are in Iowa, considering the Obama people feel like he has that state locked up.
As well as how poorly Obama does in Kansas, since that is also another state that the Obama people say could/would most likely go his way. (Obama won the Democratic primary by a large number 74%-26%). Must have been a lot of wishful thinking that there were that many more Democrats than Republicans in that state.
In fact, if one is looking for a "race issue" look at the Kansas poll where Clinton bests Obama in the spread by 14 points (although both are significantly behind McCain). I am sure there is a small "race issue" in that spread... but in reality it is probably more of a "conservative" issue, since Hillary is closer to center than Obama.
Posted on May 16, 2008 10:50 AM
I agree that the AR result is unsurprising; Clinton is quite popular there, and Obama is not.
YOur math on KS is faulty: 21 - 14 = 7.
Ras also polled Washington, Obama +11, Clinton +5. This is actually a pretty good result for Clinton, who struggles in the NW. Obama should have relatively little trouble holding OR and WA.
Posted on May 16, 2008 12:18 PM
Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)
Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.
Please email us to report offensive comments.
See our comment policy here. Note that we require commenters to share their email address via Typekey. We will never share your email address with anyone without your explicit permission.
MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR