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POLL: Rasmussen Louisiana, Michigan, Iowa, South Dakota, Minnesota


Rasmussen Reports

Louisiana (7/9/08; 500 LV, 4.5%)
McCain 54, Obama 34
Sen: Landrieu (D-i) 49, Kennedy (R) 44

Michigan (7/10/08; 500 LV, 4.5%)
Obama 47, McCain 39
Sen: Levin (D-i) 59, Hoogendyk (R) 36

South Dakota (7/9/08; 500 LV, 4.5%)
McCain 44, Obama 40
Sen: Johnson (D-i) 60, Dykstra (R) 35

Iowa (7/10/08; 500 LV, 4.5%)
Obama 48, McCain 38
Sen: Harkin (D-i) 55, Reed (R) 37

Minnesota (7/10/08; 500 LV, 4.5%)
Obama 52, McCain 34
Sen: Franken (D) 44, Coleman (R-i) 42

 

Comments
carl29:

Too bad that the elections are not held today. However, the fact that McCain clinched the GOP nomination since Feb. and started advertising for the General Election 3 weeks before Obama, right at the beginning of June, it is hard to believe that he has not gotten traction in states like Michigan. It is my understanding that Michigan is not only being targeted by McCain campaign, but the GOP has also ponnied up with its own attack ads against Obama.

Michigan is pretty much a equal level field since Barack had no chance of campaigning in the state during the primaries, which according to some people that would bring Barack problems with the people of Michigan. Well, it doesn't seem like Barack is sinking in the state of Michigan.

I think in the other states we pretty much knew how things stood. Let's wait for more polls, but things seem either staying the same or improving for Barack.

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adocarbog:

I can tell you from Iowa that the lead is real. McCain is not an option here.

All other polls except LA are good for Obama and CO is +4% today

McCain president (only if GWB approval goes up by 10% or more in the next 3-4 months

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brambster:

SD looks like a bit of a surprise, but it's hard to tell with no polling going on there since Obama was still the golden child (pre-Hillary thrashing). Both SD and ND are very similar in that they like Democrats in the House and Senate, but don't like them in the White House. SD also has just about the hardest fought state-wide elections around since 2000. I figure the state is in play, but I just don't know that Obama would ever pay enough attention to the state to get it to move, and campaigns in that state involve a lot of flesh pressing and GOTV efforts.

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cinnamonape:

It appears that almost every poll shows Obama way up in traditional Blue States and doing better than McCain in almost every critical swing State. He's even or close in many Red States like Georgia, Montana, Missouri and North Carolina.

So one has to wonder what it is about polls like Newsweek that shows it so close? Perhaps there is a "bigger than Bush" support for McCain in places like Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, and the Appalachians? Or maybe Newsweek tampered with their demographics in both party affiliation and over 60 years representation?

An early commentator suggested that the Missouri poll was biased by leading with "approval" questions about Bush. But the problem is that McCain's policies are largely indistiguishable from Bush's and he's saddled with being a conciliatory member of the Republican Party. He's not really viewed as a semi-libertarian "maverick" anymore since he started caving on Bush policies from the 2000 election.

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Lompe:

If you compare the current polls average with the 2004 election results, Obama is doing better vs. McCain compared with Kerry vs. Bush in all states except in Arkansas, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. (Nevada and West Virginia are about the same).

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onelightonvoice:

where is tybo with the bogus spin? oh yeah, it is a bit hard to spin these polls.....

yikes, within moe in SD?? wow. the 50 state strategy is just beginning as well.....Dean looks golden right now.....

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political_junki:

Come on guys, as much as I'd love to see Obama win, lets not start counting our chickens yet.
Lets be the one who laughs last :)

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carl29:

Wait a minute guys. I was thinking that this Michigan poll is really a blow to McCain. Look, contrary to Obama, McCain did campaign in Michigan, although he lost to Romney. But, Michigan is supposed to have sort of "good" relationship with McCain since he won the state against Bush in 2000. Michigan is supposed to be a sort of New Hampshire for McCain. So, it's like Obama trailing McCain in the polls in Iowa when McCain didn't even campaign in the state for the primaries and doesn't have a history with those voters like Barack.

McCain campaigned in the Michigan for the primaries in 2000 and 2008, so we can assume that the people of Michigan really have a history with McCain, although it doesn't look to be helping him that much against the "new kid on the block," Obama. In addition, McCain and the GOP is investing in the state, so I'm a bit surprise that McCain numbers are not moving up. If more polls come out with these numbers, McCain should start worrying about his ability to connect with voters worried about the economy, which is the main reason for Obama's support, I suspect.

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David_T:

Does this poll (if confirmed by others) kill Pawlenty's chances of becoming McCain's running mate? A governor as vice-presidential candidate can help the national ticket slightly in his home state, but there is no way he can erase an 18-point lead.

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David_T:

Does this poll (if confirmed by others) kill Pawlenty's chances of becoming McCain's running mate? A governor as vice-presidential candidate can help the national ticket slightly in his home state, but there is no way he can erase an 18-point lead.

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bonncaruso:

First, ND, now SD, also MT, also AK.

We are witnessing a regional phenomenon here. In states with a strongly independent attitude, which describes all of these states, Obama is doing far better than a DEM "should" be doing, based on former electoral trends and experiences.

It doesn't mean that he will win these states, but statistically, it means that the more states he softens up with much, the more McCain will have to throw in resources where the GOP thought it would be safe. My "endangered" list for McCain looks like this, in order of likelyhood of flipping to Obama, via-a-vis 2004:

Almost guaranteed to flip:

IA, NM

Likely to flip:

CO, OH, VA

Could flip if trends continue:

NC, MT

Less likely to flip, but likely to become battlegrounds where none were expected:

SC, GA, MS, ND, SD, AK

Very hard to gauge at this time:

IN, NV

-----------------

On the McCain side, vis-a-vis 2004:

"blue states" guaranteed to flip to McCain
-none-

Likely to flip to McCain:
-none-

could flip if trends continue:
-none-

maybe flip, likely battleground:
MI

Unable to gauge:

CT

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My first post at pollster.com ... bonncaruso, your state analysis is pretty good, with the proviso "if trends continue". A lot can change in three months. BTW, right now, CT is moderately strong for Obama.

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Paul:

Compared to Bush-Kerry in 2004, and compared to current Senate seats, using 538 current data:

LA: safe bet for McCain (no change) and likely Democratic for Senate (no change).

MI: leaning Obama (no change) and safe Democratic for Senate (no change).

SD: leaning McCain (no change) and safe Democratic for Senate (no change).

IA: likely Obama (change) and safe Democratic for Senate (no change).

MN: likely Obama (no change) and leans GOP for Senate (no change).

These recent Rasmussen polls all agree with the 538 projections with one exception, that being the MN Senate race, which bears watching.

The only change from 2004 Bush-Kerry race for these five states would be Iowa, which may be significant. Starting with Kerry 2004 states, adding Iowa brings Obama to 259 electoral votes. He then needs either CO and NM, or Ohio, or VA to win. Without IA, Obama would have to win OH, or win VA and CO, or win VA and NM.

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