POLL: Rasmussen Maine
Eric Dienstfrey | June 18, 2008
Rasmussen Reports
Maine
Obama 55, McCain 33
Sen: Collins (R-i) 49, Allen 42
By Eric Dienstfrey | June 18, 2008 12:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBacks (0)
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Comments
Cover your eyes McSame. He'll some Prozac today.
Posted on June 18, 2008 12:19 PM
i can't keep up. this will probably only widen the "enthusiasm gap." Even though its only June, I think McCain's best polling days are behind him. The past two elections weve become so accustomed to "close races" that we forget what its like to have a Dem in the lead (think 92, 96 when Clinton took the lead and never looked back).
Posted on June 18, 2008 12:36 PM
Actually, Nate Silver recently posted a comparison of June polling in the last few cycles, and IIRC Bush held a small lead in June 92, while Clinton was up by a huge margin in 96. Kerry was essentially tied in 04 (his best month)...the overall result was that June polls tended to be nontrivial but mediocre predictors of November.
That said, there can be no doubt that Obama has taken the lead, that an Obama landslide is now much more likely than a McCain landslide, and that McCain will have to change the dynamics of the race to make up his lost ground.
Posted on June 18, 2008 1:36 PM
This is not a surprise. This race really only comes down to 3 states - Ohio, Michigan and VA. Who ever gets two out of the 3 wins. And if MI and VA don't flip - as I expect after the conventions they will revert back to their red/blue status as they have always been, then in the words of our beloved TR, it will come down to, OHIO, OHIO, OHIO.
What I would like to see is alot more MI, CO and OH polling. I find it odd that with the attention Obama has been paying to MI,(his internal numbers must be troubling) that we have seen so little polling from MI.
Posted on June 18, 2008 1:42 PM
@mago,
I realize Bush was leading in June 92, but once Clinton took the lead later in the summer he never really looked back... That's more what I was referring to. June 08 may be the moment that Obama took the lead and never looked back...
Posted on June 18, 2008 1:45 PM
@1magine,
that's not exactly accurate. If Obama wins NM and CO and IA (looking exceedingly likely), he can lose both OH and VA AND FL and win just MI and still win the election. There are just so many permutations. Assuming he then wins VA, OH and FL as polls would suggest, his EV total would be 333. Throw in NV and MO and he's up to 349. Blowout anyone ?
Posted on June 18, 2008 1:50 PM
Maine !
not a surprise but good numbers
Posted on June 18, 2008 4:54 PM
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