7/17/08; 500 LV, 4.5
Obama 49, McCain 41
Sen: Collins (R-i) 53, Allen (D) 43
McCain may get one of the four electoral votes out of Maine.
In Maine: one elector within each of two congressional district by popular vote and two electors by the aggregate, statewide popular vote.
Posted on July 18, 2008 4:45 PM
The post above from "Undecided" does need to be examined as 1 electoral vote could theoretically swing the election for McCain. Perhaps a pollster with access to Maine's district demographics and polling history could take a look at this. There was an argument in the recent past that the same scenario could evolve in Nebraska with Obama picking up 1 electoral vote.
As to these polls, an obvious explanation is not apparent as to Obama only +8. We need a few more polls to see if this +8 is an outlier. As to Senate race, Collins is seen as likely winner and this poll is consistent with the prevailing wisdom.
Posted on July 18, 2008 8:30 PM
The congressional districts run basically along a Northeast to south west line. Portland and Augusta along with the southern seacoast are in the 1st. This is Allen's District, it is the most liberal part of the state. He will do well there and Obama will do there. It is also the most populous part of the state.
The 2nd includes Bangor Lewiston-Auburn, Presque Isle and Orono/Univ. of Maine. The rest is pretty rural. In 2004 a lot of us from MA went not only to NH but up to Maine to push for Kerry. We did a ton of work in L-A (where I was not sure what happened in the other cities) and got 66% of the vote in that city but the district as a whole was very close. Ted Kennedy was even there directing the troops on the last day before the election. Note: Michaud is the there congressman and is a Democrat so people are open to Democratic candidates up there.
Looking at the trend line, this is going to be very competitive by November, Allen is slowly building steam against Collins. If U-Maine gets very active for Obama, it could give Allen a big bounce up north.
PS The second district has a lot of French Speakers. One of my favorite bumper stickers in the whole campaign was "Fermez la Bush" :P
Posted on July 19, 2008 8:37 AM
sorry for the half asleep post. Should have edited it before hitting post.
Posted on July 19, 2008 8:40 AM
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