8/11/08; 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 48, Obama 45 (July: McCain 45, Obama 42)
same extremely unfavorable preponderance for obama versus mccain that far outstrips the difference in aggregate polling totals.
Very Unfavorable obama 35% mccain 22%
why? and how come it hasn't knocked obama down accordingly?
his 'favorable' ballast seems insufficient to fully counter it.
Posted on August 13, 2008 5:15 PM
It's Obama's "very favorables" that do it. His supporters are much more enthusiastic. Plus, I think a lot of people give McCain a "favorable" rating even if they aren't going to vote for him. People neither really like nor really dislike the guy. Has a lot to do with his POW past - people respect that even if they don't want him to be president. Plus, many still thinks he some "maverick" moderate. Perhaps his "I'm already the President" cold warrior act this week will help to open folks eyes to the reality - the dude is dangerous!
Anyway, still a tight one in NV. Obama will likely have an easier time winning CO or NM but this state is definitely still in play.
Posted on August 13, 2008 5:20 PM
Too soon for the Yucca attacks to hurt McCain? Anyone from the area able to give some insight?
Posted on August 13, 2008 5:49 PM
Its now rumored Colin Powell is going to endorse Obama, that might help him in some swing states, Powell is very popular.
Posted on August 13, 2008 6:23 PM
between a worsening local economy and an Obama impressive voter registration drive, McCain's in a bit of trouble.
my understanding is that Powell is an Obama lean, he is as concerned as most of the other military with McCain@s reckless streak>
Posted on August 13, 2008 6:46 PM
colin powell: wasnt that the dude who brought those fuzzy pix to the UN and had us try to believe there were trucks and centerfuges?
very impressive guy. and he'd do anything to live down that poorly prepped kindergarten show and tell.
obama can have him.
Posted on August 13, 2008 6:51 PM
Wasn't Colin Powell the United States Ambassador to the United Nations? Isn't it the duty of the Ambassador to reflect the views of the government? And who prepared the 'evidence' for Colin Powell (hint - the White House, wasn't it?)?
So by making snarky comments about Colin Powell's presentation at the UN, you are making snarky comments about the entire Bush administration.
Add in that John McCain supported the entire build-up to the war, you are making snarky comments about John McCain's views and support of the war.
When are you going to announce that you support Senator Obama for President?
Posted on August 13, 2008 7:49 PM
nah, the guy was the secretary of state.
you know, if he knew the material sucked (which it did) he didnt have to trot in and try and convince the world and you and me of the inanity of this war.
colin powell was as much part of this false aggression as anyone. and he was the one with the so called 'gravitas'.
it's a free country. if it came down to his job or his integrity, hey, others have chosen the right one time and again. was he a coward, a ego addled jerk or just stupid?
your guess is as good as mine. but the damage he wrought in his capacity as the sane voice of war is immeasurable.
that he is a black man, and a republocrat (a foot in both aisles thus far) means nada.
he screwed the pooch.
Posted on August 13, 2008 7:59 PM
@OGLiberal: The "I'm already president move" this week? Unlike the "I'm going on my first overseas states visit as the new president" because I know I'm going to get elected?
Posted on August 13, 2008 8:36 PM
This poll at McCain +3 is consistent with 538 projection at McCain +2. Bottom line is only realistic scenario I see where Nevada comes into play is as follows: Obama loses Ohio and Virginia, wins all Kerry states except for New Hampshire, wins Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, we have a tie (election goes to house and McCain wins) - Obama would need to win a small state like Nevada or Montana.
Posted on August 13, 2008 8:40 PM
Apparently, Chuck Hagel just stated he will NOT endorse either candidate.
Posted on August 13, 2008 8:49 PM
Regarding the poll:
Obama's very unfavorable is 35 points compared to his very favorable of 30 points. The very unfavorable is usually less in the state and national polls.
Overall, Mccain has a favorability of 58 and Obama has 47, of which the latter is DOWN 5 points. So what happened here?
Notably 79% want new energy sources, whereas only 23% support reducing energy use. Another Rasmussen poll showed that new energy sources were identified with McCain and energy conservation with Obama.
Posted on August 13, 2008 9:06 PM
CNN just reported that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright may be coming out with a book this month. If this is true, the Obama campaign will be sitting on the edge of their seats in anticipation. This can't be good news for Barack.
Posted on August 13, 2008 10:13 PM
I don't think that Powell helps anyone. He is more or less done in both parties.The media might make something out of it, but the average Joe could care less.
Posted on August 13, 2008 11:40 PM
As usual, Rasmussen is under the illusion that Republicans still outnumber Dems in Nevada. They don't.
2004 registration: Reps +1%
2008 registration: Dems +5% and growing DAILY.
By election time, Obama should coast to about a five point victory in Nevada. Granted, that's close, but for a state like Nevada, it's not bad, especially for a Democrat.
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:05 AM
The very favorable vs very un-favorable voter response to Obama is probably the most interesting aspect of the election.
In the middle of July Obama's average favorability was around + 24, Real Clear has it at +18% now and it is falling. The very unfavorable is climbing.
This is one of the obvious reasons why Obama is behind the generic Dem vote.
With regards the energy issue, my estimate is that as much as 3% of McCain's intended voter support is soft on this issue. His flip flop on drilling was an instant vote winner.
Posted on August 14, 2008 5:32 AM
Your assumption that McCain would be the winner if the electoral vote were tied is likely to be incorrect. In the current House, the Democrats have a majority in 27 state delegations, while the Republicans have a majority in only 21 (Arizona and Kansas have equally-divided delegations).
The vote for President is by states, with one vote for each state, with a majority of states required to pick a winner. The Republicans would have to pick up a net of two delegations this fall to prevent a Democratic majority from prevailing. That is possible but unlikely, as this fall's election is more likely to increase the Democrats' edge than to reduce it.
And even if there were a Republican gain, unless they actually attained a majority in 26 House delegations -- a net pickup of 5 – the best they could do is achieve a deadlock in the House, which would permit Obama's running mate, who would be elected Vice President by the almost certainly Democratic-controlled Senate, to act as President until a President could be chosen by the House.
Posted on August 17, 2008 5:44 AM
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