Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: Rasmussen New Hampshire


Rasmussen

New Hampshire
Obama 50, McCain 39
Sen: Shaheen (D) 53, Sununu (R-i) 39

 

Comments
Nickberry:

Very good to see the Democratic Senate candidate is still way ahead. A filibuster proof Senate is the goal no matter who is elected President.

Former Governor Shaheen is also viewed very favorably at 59%... and news reports often refer to Sununu as "vulnerable."


____________________

Tybo:

Shaheen is excellent. And if not for Sununu's phone jamming last election, she would have won.

Shaheen for senate!

____________________

illinoisindie:

Okay so I guess ARG wasn?t off his rocker? anyone concerned that these NH polls may be a repeat of history. Remember the Barack/Hillary showdown. Didn?t they all get it wrong and what has changed in their methodology for me to say that we should trust any poll coming out of NH

____________________

carl29:

One thing about New Hampshire that bothers me is the fact that pollsters missed so bad the composition of the electorate. The majority of these pollsters didn't include the crosstabs in terms of % of men and women.
For example:

7NEWS/Suffolk University had

Male 49% Female 51%

The day of the vote:

Male 43% Female 57%

So, no wonder Hillary benefited of a bigger number of women coming out for her.

7NEWS/Suffolk University had Obama at 39%, the favorite candidate of men who were 49% of this poll. Hillary was at 34%, the favorite candidate for women who were 51% of this poll. Hillary and Barack were 5% apart in this poll. Increase the number of women and there you have Hillary's numbers going up. Decrease the number of men and there you have Obama's numbers going down.

No wonder that those changes in demographics drove Hillary's numbers up and brought Obama's numbers down. Having an increase of 6% of women, who were Hillary's core constituency, of course helped her move up her numbers from 34% to 39%.

This was kind of what happened in the South with Barack, everyone got AA turnout wrong. So, the spread was always bigger than what the pollster had predicted. They all were right that Barack will win, but no one could predict by how much.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR