Pollster.com

Rasmussen is a conservative evangelical pollster whose polls tend to show slightly better results for Republicans than do other polls (for example, his polls have shown higher approval ratings for President Bush than have other polls). Nonetheless, New Hampshire will undoubtedly be close this election cycle, as it was in 2004. While Kerry won this state, McCain has long been popular here. The two candidates have spent about the same amount of money on advertising in New Hampshire. It is probably McCain's best opportunity to turn a blue state red.

Rass was the #2 most accurate pollster in 2006! Conservative or not, he is good at polling...

New Hampshire is the epitome of moderate, independent voting. It is also the least liberal of all New England states. It is the most likely state in the Northeast to go to McCain. Remember, Obama was ahead of Clinton in virtually every poll by 10 pts, but lost the primary. That shows that NH probably has more "secretly racist" voters than most states. My prediction is McCain by 3%.

McCain has a long term relationship with New Hampshire from 2000 when they gave him the win in the first primary of the season. Most feel like they know him pretty well because he has spent much time up there then and now.

Rasmussen has a mixed track record. In 2000, he boldly predicted a relatively easy Bush victory; Bush lost the popular vote. In 2004, his national numbers proved accurate, but his state-by-state numbers were less reliable--including the perennial swing states of Ohio and New Mexico (in both cases, Rasmussen had Bush winning by larger margins than he did). In 2006, Rasmussen over-estimated the Republican Talent's support in Missouri.

With the number of cell-phone only voters increasing, Rasmussen's numbers may be becoming less reliable.

This poll is like most of the rest of the recent polls. It shows McCain has picked up about three points on Obama. In one poll it showed about three percent of the undecided moving towards McCain. I think that this is really what is happening. The undecideds are making up their minds and are moving towards McCain. The question becomes; will it continue and become a sustainable trend for McCain? We should know by this time next month if not sooner.

@Patrick: Hillary was also leading Obama in all polls prior to the caucus, so maybe it's about the polls, not about race, you know.

It is possible to hate Obama without hating his race.