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POLL: Rasmussen NH Primary


A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of likely primary voters in New Hampshire (conducted 1/4) finds:

  • Among 441 likely Republican primary voters, Sen. John McCain runs at 31%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 26%, Rep Ron Paul at 14%, former Gov. Huckabee at 11%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 8%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 5%.
  • Among 510 likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton (37% to 27%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 19%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 8%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 4.5% for each subgroup.

 

Comments

I'd love more than the next guy for Obama to be up on HRC by ten points, but I don't buy it.

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Paul:

This Rasmussen poll is consistent in direction with tracking polls. For example, Zogby internals are showing move to Obama for people polled after Iowa caucus results were known. All the NH polls show Obama winning the Independent vote by large margins. If Independents vote in the numbers predicted on the Democratic side (35-40%), that will be good news for Obama. At the same time, that will not be good news for McCain as he also needs the same Independent voter. It is possible registered Democrats and registered Republicans favor Clinton and Romney respectively, but with Independents included, Obama and McCain win with the magnitude of the wins being governed by the extent to which the Independents vote in the respective primaries.

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Ben P:

I don't know where you got these numbers from.

I just was looking at the Rasmussen website and Obama is leading Clinton 39 to 27%. The GOP numbers are off too. McCain leads, but 32 to 30 over Romney.

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Mark Blumenthal:

Ben,

We had the wrong link (it was right yesterday, but the articles with the above data now have the permlinks used above). Sorry for the confusion.

Mark

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