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POLL: Rasmussen Ohio


Rasmussen Reports
7/21/08; 500 LV, 4.5
Mode: IVR

Ohio
McCain 52, Obama 42

 

Comments
Alan Abramowitz:

This is not a credible result. It is not only way out of line with other recent polls in Ohio, it is way out of line with other recent polls in neighboring states and national polls. Over the past five weeks, the Gallup tracking poll has shown an average Obama lead of around 8 points (range 5-9) in the swing states as a group. That is based on tens of thousands of interviews. If Obama is ahead in the swing states as a group by 8, or even 5, there is no way he can be trailing in Ohio by 10. Moreover, even if Obama is tied nationally with McCain as Rasmussen currently shows--and this is almost certainly an underestimate of Obama's support--he could not possibly be trailing in Ohio by 10.

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m finesod:

The Rasmussen poll is the only unbiased and most accurate poll there is. It is unconcievable to believe that Obama could possibly be tied or ahead in Ohio. Obama was trounced by Hillary in the mid west, and they do not like Obama. The biased polls...ie CBS, NY Times, MSNBC etc want people to believe Ohio is a "swing" state. It is not. Ohio and Florida are not swing states in this election. The swing states in this election are Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. hio is easily a McCain state.

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Undecided:

Without leaners: McCain 46% Obama 40%

Here is the WOW part of this poll: "McCain’s lead among unaffiliated voters jumps from a nine-point advantage without leaners to twenty-three points with leaners."


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marctx:

It is surprising to see McCain doing so well nationally and in swing states especially considering the generic democrat is 10% ahead, the media is obviously trying to help Obama get elected, and here's the kicker...the republican attack dogs haven't been unleashed yet???? Wait until the October surprise and Wright/Clinger Comments Part II.

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axt113:

Actually finesod, Rasmussen is not the most accurate pollster, nor are they unbiased, in fact right now this poll looks like an outlier, as its very much out of line with other polls

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carl29:

This is the second poll from Ohio in July, one showing Barack up by 8% and the other down by 10%. Since two single polls showing totally opposite results don't make it any easy for me to believe, I want to wait for more polls from other pollsters out of the state. Right now it is 50-50. For example, last month, June, we got 4 different polls from 4 different pollsters. Out of the 4, Obama was down in just 1, Rasmussen's poll. I think in the following days we will get other polls, so we can see the "trend."

My gut feeling is that Barack's poll numbers from June were a reflection of him clinching the nomination and Hillary's endorsement, so I think that indeed his numbers in Ohio maybe lower than in June; however, I thinking about around 5% lower. For example, PPP poll in June had Obama 11% ahead, now it is Obama 8% ahead, 3% down. Let's wait Quinnipiac and SurveyUsa numbers for this month, so we can compare with June.

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onelightonvoice:


Well, this is what happens when you poll only 500 white people in southern ohio. Nice one rass!


marctx - what is pathetic is repubs lying/hoping/praying that gramps will win Ohio. Want to put some money where your mouth is? Yeah, that's what I thought. STFU.


Do you know what "outlier" means? Maybe you should look that up before posting here bud.


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Alan Abramowitz:

It's an outlier. Period. Certainly McCain could be slightly ahead in Ohio or slightly behind, but Ohio can't be far out of line with Pennsylvania and Michigan, or for that matter with the nation as a whole. Outliers happen even to the best of pollsters.

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Paul:

This Rasmussen Ohio poll could be the outlier of the week. The last Ohio poll I see which had McCain in front by 10 or more in Ohio was SUSA December 2007. June Rasmussen had McCain +1. Rasmussen has been consistent in terms of supporting McCain --- the last 6 Rasmussen Ohio polls have showed McCain ahead. Without this poll included, 538 has Obama snapshot and projection as +3 (leans DEM). RCP has Obama +1.5 and toss-up. Pollster.com trend shows Obama +3.5.

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1magine:

1magine:
Election is not over yet. I've said it b4 and I will repeat it again. 10 minutes into the first debate. Does BO look sufficiently Presidential? Does he sound strong, confident and patriotic? If the answer is yes, tens of millions of viewers will essentially tune back out and be watching sit-coms and reality tv by the time the second commercial break rolls in - if that long. You will know - look at the National numbers and OH numbers 3 days following the debate. They will tell you everything.
As for this poll - OH is a COMPLETE microcosm of the US. I grew up in NY and went to school there, while stationed in Wheeling WV. Farms, small towns, suburbs, cities, etc.. Dems in the deep south part of the state sound like conservative Dems in Baton Rouge & Bilouxi. Reps in Clevland sound like liberal Reps in Manhattan. Despite the label Dem or Rep - area code in the state is far more determinative of voting pattern.
It is possible that in the next week the National polls suddenly flip dramatically, maybe a 15-20 swing - - and Obama begins to lose by 8-10 points nationally. But otherwise - I think sampling error is the issue here. National polls and OH state polls just generally don't diverge by that much. But if someone can show me different - I am happy to embrace my error.

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onelightonvoice:

fivethirtyeight.com explains the BOGUS results from Rass (in multiple ways)-

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/


Money Quote:

"Is this an issue with the Rasmussen poll in Ohio? Actually, it may be. The poll has McCain leading 50-39 among voters aged 18-29, and 67-33 among voters aged 30-39. Obama leads 55-36 among voters in their 40s, and then McCain leads by single-digit margins among voters aged 50 and up. Such an age distribution is inconsistent with most other polling that we have seen in this election."

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1magine:

From fivethirtyeight:

"...Is this an issue with the Rasmussen poll in Ohio? Actually, it may be. The poll has McCain leading 50-39 among voters aged 18-29, and 67-33 among voters aged 30-39. Obama leads 55-36 among voters in their 40s, and then McCain leads by single-digit margins among voters aged 50 and up. Such an age distribution is inconsistent with most other polling that we have seen in this election..."

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ndirish11:

@onenlightonvoice

Your pro-Obama arrogance makes me not want to vote for Obama as a Hillary supporter. It's so annoying when people pick apart every poll that doesn't show Obama ahead. It's just a poll. And no matter how screwed up you claim this poll is, it obviously is a good sign for McCain in this state.

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m finesod:

The best way to look at the pollers is to look at past performances. Rassmussen has been the most accurate poll since 2004. All the other so called 'unbiased' pollers have been dead wrong. Rassmussen had Obama polling as the 'lock' over Clinton over 3 months before he actually clinched the primary. Rassmussen has Obama way ahead in the electorial count over McCain. Obviously Rassmussen is not biased for McCain. It just seems there are some that can't stand to believe that the entire Country isn't for Obama. If the election were held 'today', I am sure that McCain would easily win Ohio, but would lose the Presidential election to Obama.If I were an Obama supporter, I would be thrilled with that result......however, it appears that the biased people wouldn't be.

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