Oregon (7/14/08 - 500 LV, 4.5%)
Obama 49, McCain 40
Sen: Smith (R-i) 46, Merkley (D) 46
Kansas (7/15/08 - 500 LV, 4.5%)
McCain 58 Obama 35
Sen: Roberts (R-i) 61, Slattery (D) 33
As to Oregon Senate race, Smith (R) vs. Merkley (D) being tied in this poll, 538 has this race as 76% likely victory for Merkley (R), and that this contest is leaning GOP. The results of this poll could change this position. Appears to be a race to watch.
As to Oregon Presidential race, Obama is ahead between 8 and 11 points, so this poll is consistent. 538 has this race as 87% likely Democrat. So Oregon looks positive for Democrats with possibility Senate Seat changes parties from R to D.
As to Kansas Senate race, 538 has this race as 90% likely victory for Republican and likely GOP. I would think that the percent will increase and this race will become Safe GOP.
As to Kansas Presidential race, 538 has this race as McCain between +8 and +12, dependent on statistic with 91% probability McCain will win. This +23 for McCain will surely increase that likelihood. So, Kansas looks very positive for the Republicans.
Posted on July 16, 2008 5:39 PM
Just a small correction... I think you meant Smith (R) the incumbent at 76% likely.
Oregon is holding steady for Obama. Virtually no movement.
Whereas, Smith has lost ground to Merkley who is the speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives. Smith is the ONLY Republican to hold statewide office in Oregon. Interestingly, the Republican Smith has aligned himself to Obama policies but has lost support among both Democrats and Republicans. I think he miscalculated on that one.
Posted on July 17, 2008 10:42 AM
miscalculated? well, he only had one option. either align with Obama or with McMoreWar. oregon is a bit anti-war at the moment......
anyhoo, the money Q in the kansas poll is the one about the shrub. "42% of Kansas voters now say he is doing a good or an excellent job."
Obviously a lot of low-info, no-info voters in kansas. Or, they ACTUALLY think he is doing a good job.
Posted on July 17, 2008 11:14 AM
FYI... Smith is an incumbent senator who has served two terms. Regarding Iraq... not an issue for him in Oregon. In 2006, Smith spoke out against the war. In March 2007, was one of only two Republicans (the other = Chuck Hagel) to vote to withdraw troops.
From last month Smith lost support from his own party (his base) by 7 points... as well as 9 points among his former Democrat supporters (most likely some of those are conservative Democrats.)
Posted on July 17, 2008 12:20 PM
Riiight, because speaking out against the war in 2006 requires cojones? So again, why wouldn't he align himself with Obama, who spoke out against the war BEFORE it started? Why would he align himself with McSame?
I doubt all Oregonians are high-info voters as well. Most just see the R and think they are with Bush, and by association, war enthusiasts.
I don't remember too many Republicans saying in 02 that the war was a bad idea. Did any Republican have any sort of judgement whatsoever? It is easy to say it in 06 when it ended up being a fiasco.
Posted on July 17, 2008 2:36 PM
Both Democrats and Republicans supported the Iraq War based on the info they had at the time. Only about 25% of the public was against it (and I was one of them). It is good to remember that all the people who are against the Iraq War now, were not of that mindset at the time. Possibly many original anti-Iraq voters will not support those who voted to give Bush the additional power, but MOST voters themselves have changed their minds just as Smith did.
Posted on July 17, 2008 3:34 PM
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