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POLL: Rasmussen SC Dem Primary


A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of 553 likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina (conducted 1/6) finds:

  • Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton (42% to 30%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 14%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
  • Among African Americans, Obama leads Clinton 58% to 30%. Note, the percent of the sample that is African Americans was not released.
  • The margin of sampling error is 4% for all likely Democratic primary voters.

 

Comments
Paul:

Based on the racial breakdown, I assume the poll is for South Carolina, even though New Hampshire is in bold.

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Ernie J:

Everyone needs to easy up about the Iowa caucus. It was just the first one, Obama maybe just had a louder influential group of supporters that night.
REMEMBER its a LONG race, anything can happen and if you ask me Hillary and Edwards will close the gap if not take the lead real soon.
Sit back and enjoy the ride. Its funny how the media trys to hype up one candidate and influence the vote.

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Michael JS:

Could you clarify whether these results are really for South Carolina or New Hampshiree.
Given the small coterie of African-Americans in NH, one suspects the former; but we'd appreciate a definitive answer.

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Mark Blumenthal:

Sorry folks: Definitely South Carolina. We've had a dozen or so releases in the last 48 hours and we've obviously missed more typos than we should have.

Nonetheless, those who appreciate everything this site has had to offer might want to post a thank you to Eric Dienstfrey, the hardest working man in show business (or at least at Pollster.com). He has been working pretty much non-stop the last few days to keep the charts and tables up to date. Yes, we are all a bit fried at this point, but I can tell you that his work has been magnificent.

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Joey Jo Jo:

You can figure out the AA% roughly

1) Obama has 58% share among AA voters

2) He has 27% among white voters

3) The rest of the electorate is negligible (2% Hispanic + other in the SurveyUSA poll, and one wouldn't expect anything different in this poll if it's even close to good)

4) Obama has 42% of the final vote, almost exactly in the middle (but slightly less) than the average between the two racial results, which would be the case if the results were slightly more white than AA.

You can't do an exact mathematical calculation because all %'s are rounded, and you don't know the non white, non-AA %, but the sample is pretty close to 50-50 white/AA, with likely a little more whites than AA's.

This is some conjecture, but I bet probably explains a little bit of the difference between this and the SurveyUSA poll, which was 51-47 AA, as Obama's lead in this survey would move by probably 1-2 points if it were weighted the same as the SurveyUSA poll.

To me, this illustrates that: racial turnout percentages are very key in polling here, that nobody knows what race will be, and a campaign could really gain 3-4 percentage points in margin depending on if white or AA voters turn out (similar to Obama's big win in IA being predicated on young voters turning out).

Also, I do appreciate your work, which has been revolutionary in bringing both poll data and polling explanation to non-campaign workers.

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