Obama 45, McCain 43
McCain 52, Obama 39
Sen: Cornyn 52, Noriega 35
Obama 48, McCain 39
Sen: Zimmer 45, Lautenberg 44 **
Sen: Lautenberg 45, Zimmer 44
** UPDATE: Numbers corrected on Rasmussen's website.
Wisconsin with 10 EV is a battleground state... and Obama/McCain is well within margin of sampling error.
Posted on June 10, 2008 12:34 PM
3 real battleground states in the west and midwest:
Wisconsin, New Mexico and Iowa
Let's see in 2004:
Wisconsin: Kerry 50%, Bush 49%
New Mexico: Bush 50%, Kerry 49%
Iowa: Bush 50%, Kerry 49%
Average of polls from these states:
Wisconsin: Obama 46.7%, McCain 42.7%
New Mexico: Obama 44%, McCain 44%
Iowa: Obama 46.7%, McCain 40.7%
If you live in any of these states, except Sen. Obama to visit very, very often. Kerry made the mistake of not campaigning enough in these states and ended up losing two of the three. Now, in hindsight, if Kerry had campaigned a little bit more in those states he could have won, just look at how close it was. Sen. Obama is not going to make the mistake of only campaigning in Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania and forgeting about those battleground states in the West and Midwest.
Posted on June 10, 2008 1:05 PM
I wonder how the flooding in Wisconsin might have affected the poll? I suspect here in Indiana, Governor Daniels will get a post-flood boost.
Posted on June 10, 2008 4:55 PM
I'm proud to say I helped get Wisconsin for Kerry in 04.
It was tough, and not that many people helping out.....this time, good God. I'm just a drop in an ocean. Obama has an army in Chicago and Illinois.....no wait, that shortchanges what he has, it is more like a nation of supporters. Yikes, sorry in advance for the annoying canvassing/phone calls cheese-heads. Here comes the movement....
Give it a month, Wisconsin will be true blue and not a "battleground". The real battlegrounds will be the Carolinas, Georgia (after the Barr effect in a couple months), Mississippi, and Florida (Can clinton deliver?). Now, the only question that remains is....how many evs will Obama win by?
It is amazing how motivated people are this time compared to 04. I think the pundits and pollsters are in for a shock come November. Turnout is going to be unreal for Obama.
Who is motivated to vote for McSame??? Oil barons? Corporate polluters? War profiteers?
Posted on June 10, 2008 5:08 PM
ohh, surprise surprise....another swing state!!!
Posted on June 10, 2008 5:18 PM
Poor grampy McSame. That said, I don't think that Arizona will be a battleground state, c'mon the guy is from there. However, according to the most recent poll McCain 50% and Barack 39% which is kind of telling since McCain should have a much healthier lead. Any way Arizona will be McSame's territory in Nov. I think he is counting Arizona as a swing state to raise expectations for Obama. Silly, no?
Posted on June 10, 2008 6:10 PM
well, I dunno, 10 points isn't that much. obama might not campaign there much, but be careful about turnout. right now, there is a massiveoperation underway to register dem voters.....combine that with the fact that many repubs in arizona will stay home since they think the states is safe, and the lack of enthusiam for mccain, and it might be a lot closer than people think. i put it at a 40% chance that obama turns it. we shall see. my real sleeper pick is mississippi. i think that state will turn blue as well as nc.
obama should park hill & bill down in florida. depending on how they do down there, that may just sew it up for him before 10 pm election night. we shall see though.....
Posted on June 10, 2008 7:46 PM
@onelightonvoice: I'm not sure I understand, why would there be a drive to register new dems? With primaries over, does it matter what people are registered as?
I'm not sure what good Hill and Bill (ha ha, good one, thought the animosity was over) would do you in FL though. Hispanics would wait to see if Richardson is VP, Blacks would vote for him anyway, older jews would wait to see what he actually believes about Israel (united Jerusalem my ass), and everyone else outside this category is probably a republican.
They can best be used in the rust-belt and in the old mining towns of Northeastern PA, but HRC won so big there that if she comes to push Obama she might get booed out.
Posted on June 10, 2008 8:48 PM
Oh my dear Uri, we have a saying in spanish, Y vuelve la mula al trigo, for people who in spite of the facts keep on repeating like a broken record the same thing.
Again according to Uri: "Hispanics would wait to see if Richardson is VP, Blacks would vote for him..."
Again according to the hard facts: Gallup finds that: "data show Obama with a 62% to 29% advantage over McCain among Hispanics."
Posted on June 10, 2008 9:29 PM
Another point, the reason behind registering new voter lays in registering people who will be simpathetic to the candidate's cause. For example, in Barack's case he wants to register young people and African Americans.
Posted on June 10, 2008 9:32 PM
@carl29: If they support OBama anyway, then there's no point sending Hill there. And are you saying that Richardson has zero impact on the hispanic vote ?
Posted on June 10, 2008 11:17 PM
This notion that Hispanics will vote this or another way because some politian tells us to do so is just ridiculous. Hispanics are voting for Hillary because she is highly appretiated in the hispanic community; however, it doesn't translate to loving the republican candidate if she is not the democratic nominee. Hispanics are going to vote democrat no matter what, based on a simple reason: It's the economy stupid!!!!
The place where Obama needs someone who helps him galvanize, get them to the polls, the hispanic vote is New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. Once the Clintons are out of the picture, people like Bill Richardson and Antonio Villaraigosa become very instrumental. For example, Antonio Villaraigosa, the Los Angeles mayor, was instrumental in getting an unprecented turnout among hispanics for Clinton in California and Texas.
Obama doesn't need Hillary to get the hispanic vote. I think he needs Hillary to get the Jewish vote in Florida, however, if he locks down Pennsylvania and Ohio forget about Florida, doesn't need it anymore. Obama is getting to see how are his numbers state by state in months to come. If his numbers are good in the states he needs to win, No Hillary, My Friend.
Posted on June 11, 2008 12:48 AM
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