7/9/08 - 500 LV, 4.5%
Obama 48, McCain 39
w/ leaners: Obama 51, McCain 43
Gov: Gregoire (D-i) 52, Rossi (R) 44
Looks right for both Presidential race and Governor's race considering the major population center is in the Seattle-Tacoma metro area and that is mostly Democrats. Probably another east-west (rural/urban) divide.
McCain is supported by 91% Republicans and Obama by 83% of Democrats. Unaffilitated voters are basically evenly divided between the two. Obama just needs enough Democrats to vote for him and he wins.
Posted on July 11, 2008 4:54 PM
Posted on July 11, 2008 5:15 PM
The Republican candidate's name is "Rossi" not "Rosse."
I expect the governor race will be closer than this poll indicates. Recall that the governor's election four years ago resulted in a recount where Gregoire won on the third count after allegations (some substantiated) flew back and forth about election and vote fraud. Republicans are still smarting from the "stolen" election and want revenge. While these issues are local to Washingotn, it is worthwhile to continue to monitor this governors race to see if it will break against the national trend to the Democrats and if there will be spillover to the presidential race. Note that Rassmussen and SUSA (which account for nearly all the polls out of the state) are consistenly diverging with SUSA showing a tighter race.
Posted on July 11, 2008 5:27 PM
I note that McCain's numbers are going down here even more than Obama's numbers are going up, something I've noticed in many other June/July polls. And I'm guessing this is mostly self-inflicted damage . . .
Posted on July 11, 2008 5:43 PM
For what it's worth, sitting here in a Seattle suburb (Rossi's hometown), I suspect Rasmussen's poll has a typical GOP tilt, but not by much. Turnout in WA is typically high, but Obama will likely generate even greater than usual TO. I expect Obama will carry the state in low double digits, perhaps more.
I doubt that Rossi will close the gap. Gregoire is a relatively popular incumbent now and Obama's coattails will give her a needed edge, I think.
Posted on July 11, 2008 5:48 PM
"I expect the governor race will be closer than this poll indicates."
I've been saying that about a lot of polls lately, almost all of them show the Democratic candidate doing better than expected. Perhaps it is time to move expectations.
Posted on July 11, 2008 6:22 PM
in response to Michael McDonald....who stated "I expect the governor race will be closer than this poll indicates. Recall that the governor's election four years ago resulted in a recount where Gregoire won on the third count after allegations (some substantiated) flew back and forth about election and vote fraud.'
The second recount was automatic machine count. The third recount was a HAND COUNT, which was requested by the Democrats who had to put up a bond to pay for it if they lost, but they won. The GOP took it to state court (and they filed in a Republican county with a Republican judge). The judge did find ONE issue of fraud... some felons had illegally voted... FOR Rossi... so he deducted those votes and the Democrat candidate's (Gregoire) lead widened. The Republicans chose not to appeal to the state supreme court. Republicans urged the U.S. attorney (a Republican) to pursue voter fraud, but there was NO evidence to do so... the U.S. attorney was fired by the Bush administration.
So besides the felons (who voted for Rossi) what other voter fraud was "substantiated."
Posted on July 11, 2008 10:53 PM
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