7/8/08 - 500 LV, 4.5%
Obama 50, McCain 39
Interestingly, the previous Rasmussen Poll was Obama 45-McCain 43 with 6% undecided. And now Obama has pulled ahead with 10% undecided. (With leaners Obama 52-McCain 42).
Today's Rasmussen national daily tracking has the gap narrowing with Obama 43-McCain 42 (with leaners Obama 47-McCain 45).
I find the most interesting statistic in "certainty" and "not changing their mind" in the national daily tracking to be as follows
That leaves 32% voters in play to go for Obama, McCain, or 3rd Party candidate. I agree with Rasmussen that the next few months will be interesting.
P.S. Nader just qualified in Washington State for the ballot to make 10 states tota. Now he is going for 5 more states by July 20 (South Carolina, Massachusetts, Missouri, Rhode Island, and Arkansas).
Posted on July 11, 2008 10:56 AM
Not a surprise here. Though matches Zogby pretty closely.
Funny thing is, listening to pundits say race is really close and BO should be farther ahead... After reading fivethirtyeight the other day 3% pop vote lead translates into a 90% probability of electoral vote win. So I think 5% sounds like a landslide.
Posted on July 11, 2008 11:14 AM
Nate's numbers actually say that a 3% popular vote lead is a 97% probability. Most poll averaging sites have Obama up by 4, 5 or more right now, and it would be statistically improbable for someone to lose the EV while that far ahead in PV.
Strange how Rasmussen swings wildly in WI this month over last. The other pollsters picked this up in June, so I'm guessing either they were on the edge of their own margin the last time and on the opposite extent this time, or maybe they adjusted their weightings after finding themselves an outlier in June.
Posted on July 11, 2008 11:43 AM
Since Feb. more than 10, 14 to be exact, different polls have been conducted in Wisconsin with no pollster except Rasmussen showing Obama behind. I can't imagine how so many pollster for so many months could have been constantly showing the same "wrong" result, Obama is up in WI. I don't know why he was showing such disparity, but I think that Rasmussen finally, after 4 months, caught up with the reality on the ground.
Come on, just in McCain's dreams Barack would be in trouble in WI, where he kicked Hillary's buttock so hard in mid-February.
Posted on July 11, 2008 12:18 PM
Both Real Clear Politics (13 polls listed) and Pollster.com (23 polls listed) have Obama in Wisconsin up 11%. Zogby's latest state poll breakout has Obama up 10.7% overall (independents +14 for Obama, age 18-29 Obama +41, age 65+ McCain +7, Whites +6 for Obama, Hispanics +10.4 for Obama, AA +77 for Obama, Catholic +15 for McCain, all income brackets under 100K for Obama)
Posted on July 11, 2008 12:24 PM
Yup, Wisc looks pretty safe for Obama, as does Minnesota (unless Pawlenty is chosen as VP). Time to move on. We really need some more reliable polls out of Michigan, so that we can know whether the entirety of the upper midwest is a lock or not.
Posted on July 11, 2008 1:47 PM
Really, is it necessary to use language like "kicked Hillary's buttock " to make your point? That will only encourage others to use similar language against your candidate Obama.
Posted on July 11, 2008 2:26 PM
Do you work for Zogby or something? That's something like the third time now you pushed that polls results despite the fact that the methodology of their 'interactive' polling has yet to be proven.
Posted on July 11, 2008 9:57 PM
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