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POLL: Rasmussen WV (5/4)


Rasmussen Reports

West Virginia
Clinton 56, Obama 27

 

Comments
Shadar:

I think we all know that WV is going to be a blowout for Hillary. Appalachia is not friendly to Obama. He doesn't win the low income, less educated, race matters voters. Luckily for him neither WV/KY will kill him in the general election.

It's a shame some places in this country are still so divided racially.

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Nickberry:

This has very little to do with race, but more to do with economic class. Quit inserting racism into these polls.

What is really the shame is the existence of the TWO Americas that John Edwards talked about.

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Shadar:

"This has very little to do with race, but more to do with economic class. Quit inserting racism into these polls."

I stated multiple reasons, income, education and race. You picked out only the race part to complain about.

The reason I even included race is because of something that was posted on this very site a little while back (I believe it was this site anyhow) that discussed the Appalachian region in regards to Obama. Reporters actually had people telling them they would not vote for him because he was Black, they weren't ready for that yet and they weren't embarrassed to say it. To me the key to the interviews was the lack of embarrassment.

Don't discount racism just because you wish to believe it is no longer an issue. It most definitely is a large issue in Appalachia.

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bleu:

I don't understand the assumption that less educated, lower income people are racist. Those opinions from Obama supporters reinforce his image as elitist.

Can we stop pushing the idea that those who don't choose Senator Obama are bigots? Maybe he's just not connecting on bread and butter issues.

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Nickberry:

I focused on "race" because you stated "It's a shame some places in this country are still so divided racially."

The LARGE issue in Appalachia is economics.

AND there are also people in this demographic that will not vote for a woman.

But again... the LARGE issue in Appalachia is economics.

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Mike_in_CA:

oh please, let's just stop pussy-footing around this racist thing. Some white working class people voting for Hillary in Appalachia ARE racist, plain and simple.

Before this election Hillary was never regarded as a populist politician of the working class. She sank to that low once she started winning the racist vote. I think that's obvious. There's absolutely nothing about Hillary Clinton that would attract lower class voters over Obama except that she's white. Seriously. What has she done for the working class folk that Obama hasn't?? He was a community organizer fagodsake. Why do we have to cover this whole "racist vote" thing up. It's real, and it should be addressed.

Also, there are most obviously sexist voters who are not voting for Hillary because of that. It's real. It exists.

To deny its existence is to remain in the land of ignorance.

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cinnamonape:

I think it's a bit more complicated. Lower class whites have supported Obama west of the Mississippi and in Vermont, Maine, Minnesota, Indiana and New Hampshire.

I don't think that there are substrantial differences between Clinton's and Obama's economic plans. If anything Hillary's support of NAFTA would, I would think, cause Obama to be more popular.

When we talk about economics and those who are in certain industries the issue of race is intertwined....and has been since many Unions blocked African-Americans from being members in order to protect the jobs of their White membership. When there is economic hardship, and groups are competing for access to a increasingly limited number of jobs, people jump on markers like race or gender to give themselves a "leg up". They use myths about the other race/sex to justify such discrimination. Even when those competition issues are relaxed the myths continue to carry on. even across generations.

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Mike_in_CA:

as a follow-up on my post above, there another "low income" group in this country -- and they are inner city African Americans, who are voting overwhelmingly for Obama. So clearly the dichotomy has less to do with "economic class" as mentioned aboved, but that its a "race issue".

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Mike_in_CA:

thank you cinnamonape for better clarifying what i was trying to say :)

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cinnamonape:

BTW- I think that a week of campaigning in West Virginia and Kentucky will raise Obamas numbers by about 10-12%. The fact is that there has been no campaigning at all in WV and KY...and the Rassmussen and SUSA polls have shown almost no movement (Wright had no impact). Thus those supporting Obama are hard supporters, while Obama may actually gain some support.

Hillary will still win, but Obama may be able to prevent her from gaining substantial delegate support. I also think that Obama will gain the support of Senator Byrd. Hillary's comments about "obliterating" IRAN and lack of any awareness of the National Intelligence Estimate indicating that there is no intel that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons is likely pissing him off.

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bleu:

Undoubtably, race can be an issue among voters. But the assumption that all lower income/education level white people don't vote for Obama because he's African American is too simplistic. As someone with roots in that demographic, I worry that when this oversimplication is accepted as fact--we insult these voters, and lose them in the fall.

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Nickberry:

Extraordinary convoluting of demographics to explain this particular poll as well as low income white America as racist... if they vote for Hillary... except when they vote for Obama they are not?

And by that reasoning... Is it "racist" for African-Americans to vote for Obama... and not for Hillary? Did not think so.

Be careful with throwing out that "race" card as an explanation of why Obama does not fare well among certain demographic/identity groups. Income and education levels are also in play big time... as well as gender. It is NOT a simple black and white issue.


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nktol:

And NC is full of none-racist people whose group will vote like 90% for Obama???? What a joke.

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cinnamonape:

I also have roots, and lived most of a lifetime, in that economic and ethnic category. It's 6 of 1 and half-dozen of the other. Not ALL lower class people are virulent racists, but some are misled by others that use code "issues". Take the Wright issue- one might trust that McCain might not agree with all the things his preacher said- but with Obama it's a different standard. Obama has to be purer than "Caeser's wife" in order to get certain peoples support. They can say "I'm not racist" because they would vote for a "perfect black candidate" against the "worst white candidate". Folks in that category have been manipulated by those that benefit from fomenting those "hot button issues". And there's a lot of "code".

I think that you have to recognize that many (again not all -the fact that he has 28% support in WV shows it's not ALL) do have issues of race. Somehow you have to get people over that stuff...I'm not sure denying it exists helps.

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Shadar:

I'd love to know how people are twisting my words with a straight face.

I said three things were important. Income, Education and Race. All three factor in. I didn't say low income and uneducated people are racist. Lets break down what I said.

Low Income voters vote for Hillary in general.

The less educated voters vote for Hillary in general.

Voters who consider race an issue vote for Hillary in general.

All three statements are true. I am not making any connection between the three issues. You can be a racist and be rich. You can be a racist and be poor. You can be well educated and be a racist or poorly educated. You can be a man or a woman, white or black, and be a racist.

Stop twisting words.

I have nothing against Hillary, I think she would be an amazing president. I just happen to think Obama would be a better president. I am sick of democrats acting like republicans. We can and should conduct ourselves on a higher level, which means not resorting to attack our own party.

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cinnamonape:

Can someone tell me precisely what the economic issues are that generates far more White support for Clinton in these regions.

I would think that the Iraq War (> $1 trillion expenditure over the decade) would be a major "economic" factor as it will likely prove a stumbling block to economic recovery and put pressure on things like SSI and Medicare (or any "universal" health care plan). Obama opposed the war, Clinton favored it. Don't people make the connection?

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Mike_in_CA:

I agree with cinnamonape....what "economic issues" are drawing voters to Clinton? She only recently became a politican-of-the-working-class-people. And by recently I literally mean April 2008. Before that she was a First Lady who once said to Bill that he didn't NEED white working class people.

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Patrick:

Racism is a fact of life. So is sexism. You can't pretend they don't exist. But on the other hand, you can't label everyone who doesn't support Obama as racist. And you shouldn't label everyone that doesn't support Clinton as sexist. Obama's biggest electability problem (which is much more evident in state polls - e.g. OH, FL, PA, KY, MA, WV, NJ, MA, etc - than any national poll) is not race (though Rev. Wright will certainly hurt him). It's the fact that he comes across as sort of cool, arrogant and elitist. He may very well not be that way, but he does. And calling people 'bitter' or asking Iowa farmers if they grow arugula only boosts the perception that's he's out of touch with them. As many pundits have pointed out, he just doesn't "look natural" with his sleeves rolled up bowling or drinking beer in a saloon. It's just not him and the pandering (which they all do) is more obvious in those situations. It's the very same problem John Kerry had. And Michael Dukakis. And Gary Hart. And George McGovern. And Ted Kennedy. And Al Gore to some extent. (I believe Gore won the 2000 election, but coming off a very popular administration, it shouldn't have been so close). All these Dems were good men with progressive ideas for our country, but the working class didn't 'connect' with them in the percentages they needed. Remember, both Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter were 'good old boys' from the south who could connect with this demographic. And that's why they were elected. Whether it's real or not (perception is reality), Hillary is seen more as a 'scrappy fighter' who is 'on the side of' the working class. She is therefore much better able to 'connect' with them. And the demographic (and electoral) reality is that that's the difference between the Dem winning and losing in Nov.

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Ciccina:

Gender and economics are inextricably intertwined, because women are disproportionately low income. I'd look up the numbers.... but there appears to be a general disinterest in anything related to women voters, even here.*

The blanket notion that whites-who-don't-vote for-Obama-are-racist is pure crap. One could just as easily say that men who don't vote for Hillary are sexist. The presumption is that there is no valid reason for anyone to oppose the candidate you support. If you can't point to specific research that manages to isolate one or the other of these factors, you're just blowing smoke.

Try this for kicks, Obama supporters - let's say you saw more than one news article or "analysis" piece every day that tried to measure just how sexist male voters are - which they obviously are, since many men don't support Clinton. Would you balk? (I should hope so).

I'm reminded of this item - http://www.dailyhowler.com/dh050208.shtml - which quotes an upper income white man, an Obama supporter, whose wife supports Hillary, characterizing low income voters who support Hillary as racist. Presumably his upper-income wife has "real" reasons to support Hillary while the poor people are just ignorant.

Apparently our nation's country clubs have become bastions of racial harmony. If only the poor could just catch up!

*Women have frequently made up a majority of the primary electorate. Why? There's been a fairly persistent gender gap. Why? Are pollsters modeling female turnout correctly? Is there a gender gap among African American voters? Do women's attitudes toward the economy, foreign policy, etc differ from those of men, and does one candidate or the other better reflect one gender's preferences? Do automated poll calls use a male or female voice, and does it affect outcomes? What about exit polls? Have pollsters doing live calling noticed any difference in outcome depending on the sex of the caller / respondent? Good luck finding out. Its our first election with a strong female candidate, and women voters are still either invisible or insulted.

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Shadar:

The whole bitter flap was insanely stupid.

He said people were bitter that their government was doing nothing to help them financially so they voted on other issues, issues like guns, religion, etc because they didn't think anyone would help them financially so a vote based on their finances was a throw away vote to them.

People decided to read his comment at the 4th grade level instead of a 10th grade level, so they didn't understand that.

At the 4th grade level it came off as "he is saying I am religious and like guns because I'm bitter". When in fact he was sticking up for these people and saying they were smart enough to know that their votes weren't doing anything so they figured out they could actually have an impact if they changed their voting criteria.

I am bitter as hell, in fact I'm more than bitter, I'm downright angry at the way the government has handled a lot of issues. Not just Bush, but Clinton, Bush, and Reagan as well. Things have gotten worse and worse because things are so partisan.

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Tybo:

"Low Income voters vote for Hillary in general"
>Obama tends to carry the lowest income.. under 15 K.

"The less educated voters vote for Hillary in general."
>as do those with post graduate degrees. Obama gets those with BA's and BS degrees

"Voters who consider race an issue vote for Hillary in general."

>THose AA's who vote for Obama don't think race is an issue? LMBO! now that's spin.

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cinnamonape:

I'm curious Tybo...what's the source of your data above. Is that just for West Virginia? Or is it nationwide?

Actually I DO think African Americans think race is an issue in this election. It's whites who say their votes are influenced by race that are an issue in places like West Virginia.

Isn't that the point?

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