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POLL: Research2000 Indiana (4/21-24)


South Bend Tribune, WSBT-TV, WISH-TV, WANE-TV, conducted by Research 2000

Indiana
Sample of 600 "likely voters who vote regularly in state elections," margin of sampling error +/-4%, conducted April 21-24; Sample of 400 "likely Democratic primary voters," conducted April 23-24.
WSBT story, results

South Bend Tribune story

Obama 48, Clinton 47

McCain 51, Obama 43
McCain 52, Clinton 41

 

Comments
political_junki:

hmmmm, only 5% undecided. If this holds it will be a toss up essentially which is not good for Hillary. I guess she will be trying to have a victory to offset the Media considering that the same day Obama will probably have a good win in NC.

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djneedle83:

Bye bye Hillary..you are done.

I feel scared for the individuals that will have to tell her that Obama beat her to the Democratic Nomination.

However, we are finding out that white voters in the Rust-Belt/rural Appalachia sure do love the Clintons. However, the white vote will be tight in Indiana, Montana, South Dakota, and Oregon where there aren't racial demons from the past.

The reality is that when Obama is the nominee, more states (red/purple) are in play and many more down-ticket democrats become very electible with him on the ticket. For example, Al Franken is a sure-thing with Obama on the ticket.

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Brad:

Feels a lot like Wisconsin. Midwestern state that borders Illinois. Obama starts with a slight lead and blows HRC out of the water on Election Day. Also, since they only polled folks who "regularly vote in state elections", a lot of young people are not sampled. I think Obama will win.

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mago:

I am unconvinced that Indiana is like Wisconsin. Anybody got demographics on IN?

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Brad:

Indiana has a large student population (like Wisconsin), a younger demographic (like Wisconsin), borders Illinois (like Wisconsin), with the majority of Democrats concentrated in the large cities (like Wisconsin).

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mago:

Well, OK, Brad. I didn't realize that IN had more students than other states.

My concern is that Indiana also borders Kentucky and Ohio--rural Wisconsin has a quite different culture from southern Indiana.

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americaferreraisafatho:

I'm in Chicago, and can pretty much tell you Indiana will go to Obama. Gary, Hammond, East Chicago will be heavy, HEAVY - as in 90-10 to Obama. Indy also loves him. The 90-94 corridor will help him out big-time too.

Not enough old, racist, uneducated voters in IN for Clinton like in PA.

She can forget about keeping it close in NC - the kids are racking up huge Obama numbers there already. I see a 65-35 split there. I'll call IN 60-40 right now for Obama.


Ding-dong, the witch is dead.

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eternaltriangle:

Indiana is NOT like Wisconsin. There are essentially three Indianas, with their own distinct ideologies, interests, word for soft drinks etc. Southern Indiana is essentially Kentucky, central Indiana is essentially Ohio and the northwestern corner is Chicago (literally in some cases). Indianapolis is something of an island.

Demographically, there are three big differences from Wisconsin (Indiana is the first number).
under 50k voters: 42%/51%
Ind: 22%/27%
Catholic: 18%/32%
Conservative: 42%/32%
Moderate: 44%/49%
are you an evangelical (white conservative protestant in the Wisconsin case) 35%/18%
Church attendance would also likely be different.

Secondly, Democratic support is not concentrated in the cities except in presidential elections. Socially conservative, hawkish hoosiers have voted Republican since 1964 (with Marion county, aka Indianapolis and Northwestern Indiana bucking the trend), but state politics is a different matter. Southern Indiana (with 24% of the population) was very close in the last gubernatorial election, while Bush carried it by 22 points. This is Kentuckiana, where Clinton will win big. Obama will sweep Chicagoland and win in Indianapolis, with the black vote. The election will be decided by east central, northeastern Indiana and the Indianapolis suburbs.

Thirdly, Indiana definitely has racial demons.
Indiana was historically the most successful northern state for the KKK, which is still active in southern Indiana.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/99443/the_kkk_is_invading_bloomington_indiana.html

Indiana strongly fits the profile of states where the African American population is substantial, but not sufficiently so for Obama to win, and not so insufficiently that racial cues have no effect. Even if the state itself has a somewhat small black population (7%), remember that the state includes the suburbs, or is very close to Detroit (81% black) Louisville (19% black), Cincinnati (43% black) and Chicago (37% black).

So even if Indiana's numbers are similar at the starting gate to Wisconsin's, in practice they are worlds apart.

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Uri:

@djneedle83: the kind of impatience you have and the dirt you guys swing at Hillary is exactly why there will be a backlash in PA and OH which will cause Hillary voters not to vote for Obama.

It's fairly obvious that Hillary will get mathematically eliminated in the end, do you really think that if Hillary loses the popular vote she will actually try those mythical "backroom deals" to get the nomination by converting 80% of the superdelegates like you guys are implying?

No, she'll accept defeat just like Huckabee did. But you guys are not content waiting for an inevitable mathematical elimination, perhaps because you have this unsettling fear that Obama will make some horrible mistake.

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axt113:

even if Obama winds Indiana, which is looking more likely will Hillary actually drop out, or will she keep going hoping for that super delegate betrayal

I hope she'll do the former, but i'm betting on the latter

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RS:

@Uri:
I also do not like bad-mouthing of either candidate - not good for Party unity.
However, the question is - how does one count the so-called popular vote? And even more important - why?

HOW: As MSNBC's First Read pointed out, Senator Clinton is ahead in the "popular vote" only if FL/MI are included, and Senator Obama is given zero votes in Michigan:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/23/939826.aspx

WHY - here's a good read:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/23/01152/2705/129/501246

As Senator Obama points out, the process is designed so that the popular vote is translated into pledged delegates. And at this point, the chances Senator Clinton will overcome his lead are pretty much nil.

Sorry, but the only way Senator Clinton will be the nominee is if she convinces the superdelegates and/or flips pledged delegates. If she really believes that Senator Obama will lose the general election or be a bad President, or simply wants power - she will fight all the way to the Convention. All the remaining contests do is give her a fig-leaf.

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desirous:

Any MI compromise would involve the Uncommitted vote counting toward Obama. Clinton cannot win under that kind of calculation.

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ca-indp:

No Obama Kool Aid drinkers.
Hillary is still in the race becasue she is going to run as Independant. Her # votes is about same as Obama's if you forget delgate BS.
She is going to be LOL!!!

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