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POLL: Research 2000 Iowa Caucus


A new Research 2000 statewide survey (story, results) of likely caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 12/10 through 12/13) finds:

  • Among 500 likely Democratic caucus goers, Sen. Barack Obama (at 33%) leads Sen. Hillary Clinton and former Sen. John Edwards (both at 24%) in a statewide caucus; Gov. Bill Richardson trails at 9%.
  • Among 500 likely Republican caucus goers, former Gov. Mike Huckabee leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (31% to 22%) in a statewide caucus; former Sen. Fred Thompson and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani both trail at 9%, Sen. John McCain and Rep. Ron Paul both trail at 7%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 4.5% for both likely Republican caucus goers and likely Democratic caucus goers.

 

Comments
Thomas Morris:

I just wnted to bring it to the viewer's attention that in the last 2 elections and possibly 3 out of 4... the person in 3rd place on the iowa caucus actually won the nomination when it was all over.

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bjornar jensen:

The sample composition in this survey is somewhat bizarre. Only 600 interviews were conducted among all voters, however n=500 was applied for both Democratic and Republican results.

Looks to me like there has been some heavy weighting here to synthetically construct a sample equivalent of 500 in each heat, which presumably makes the actual margin of error considerably higher than suggested.

In particular, and uniquely among all surveys I have tracked, Obama is leading Clinton by pretty much exactly the same margin among men and women. This missing gender gap stands out like a sore thumb.

Any thoughts here?

Regards,
Bjornar


Note the following wording:

There was an over sample conducted among both Democratic and Republican caucus voters totaling 500 respondents each. The margin for error among each sample is 4.5%.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (52%)

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