POLL: Research 2000 Iowa Caucus
Eric Dienstfrey | December 14, 2007
A new Research 2000 statewide survey (story, results) of likely caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 12/10 through 12/13) finds:
- Among 500 likely Democratic caucus goers, Sen. Barack Obama (at 33%) leads Sen. Hillary Clinton and former Sen. John Edwards (both at 24%) in a statewide caucus; Gov. Bill Richardson trails at 9%.
- Among 500 likely Republican caucus goers, former Gov. Mike Huckabee leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (31% to 22%) in a statewide caucus; former Sen. Fred Thompson and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani both trail at 9%, Sen. John McCain and Rep. Ron Paul both trail at 7%.
- All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 4.5% for both likely Republican caucus goers and likely Democratic caucus goers.
By Eric Dienstfrey | December 14, 2007 7:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments
I just wnted to bring it to the viewer's attention that in the last 2 elections and possibly 3 out of 4... the person in 3rd place on the iowa caucus actually won the nomination when it was all over.
Posted on December 15, 2007 2:41 PM
The sample composition in this survey is somewhat bizarre. Only 600 interviews were conducted among all voters, however n=500 was applied for both Democratic and Republican results.
Looks to me like there has been some heavy weighting here to synthetically construct a sample equivalent of 500 in each heat, which presumably makes the actual margin of error considerably higher than suggested.
In particular, and uniquely among all surveys I have tracked, Obama is leading Clinton by pretty much exactly the same margin among men and women. This missing gender gap stands out like a sore thumb.
Any thoughts here?
Regards,
Bjornar
Note the following wording:
There was an over sample conducted among both Democratic and Republican caucus voters totaling 500 respondents each. The margin for error among each sample is 4.5%.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (52%)
Posted on December 15, 2007 7:20 PM
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