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POLL: Research 2000 Mississippi (7/21-23)


Research 2000/
DailyKos.com (D)
7/21-23/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Mississippi
McCain 51, Obama 42 (May: McCain 54, Obama 39)
Sen-B: Wicker (R-i) 45, Musgrove (D) 44 (May: Wicker 46, Musgrove 42)

 

Comments
carl29:

This is really a long shot in my opinion. I think that the Obama candidacy could help local democrats on the ballot, but I honestly don't think this state is in play at all.

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Tybo:

Not a good day for Obama or his fans.

He's slipped uniformily across polls, his negaitves are up, his positives down.

any ideas on why?


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Unitas:

My idea on why is straight from Marc Ambiinder in Atlantic Monthly.

"McCain's emphasis on Iraq and the elite's conclusion that the Surge was a success, combined with the campaign's push on energy, has made weakly-partisan Republicans feel more comfortable and confident about their nominee."

I think what we are seeing is a rise in those said weakly partisan Republicans who are moved by gas prices (which Obama has not done a good job of addressing) and crucially, the McCain campaign's success in framing American foreign policy around Surge support. It will be interesting to see if McCain continues to surge (couldn't resist) or if Obama's good week start's to push his numbers back up a bit.

That said, I think some of the good McCain polls this week were a little wacky. Obama's complete collapse in the Minnesota Q poll is a little hard to figure with his numbers basic stability in neighboring & demographically similar Wisconsin. Plus, Rusmussen's Ohio numbers are seriously questionable. They have Obama cratering among 20-40 yr olds but doing solid in other demos.

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Andrew_in_California:

The afterglow of the nomination. He still leads and is in sweeping position for the election but no longer in the 315 range. He'll probably lose states like Nevada and Missouri if the elections were held today versus 3 weeks ago.

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Paul:

Pollster.com has McCain ahead at +7.5 and is leaning GOP. RCP has MS as +11.4 and leaning McCain. 538 is projecting McCain +14.2 and safe GOP. All states considered deep south appear strong for McCain.

This Senate seat may well be a toss-up. 538 has this race as tilting GOP but does not include this poll. A race certainly to watch.

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Undecided:

I believe Musgrove is remaining neutral about Obama to remain competitive..... he needs 30% of the white vote to win.

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