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POLL: Research 2000 Nevada Caucus


A new Research 2000 statewide survey of likely caucus voters in Nevada (conducted 8/14 through 8/16 for The Reno Gazette-Journal) finds:

  • Among 400 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt ROmney (at 28%) leads former Sen. Fred Thompson and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (both at 18%) in a statewide caucus; Sen. John McCain trails at 8%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.
  • Among 400 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (33% to 19%) in a statewide caucus; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 15%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 11%, former V.P. Al Gore at 8%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.

View all Nevada Caucus poll data at Pollster.com:

ANVTopDems190.png ANVTopReps190.png
Democrats Republicans

 

Comments
Anonymous:

I read that Edwards is pulling out of Nevada because the new calendar may have those caucuses taking place the same day as the South Carolina primary. But these poll numbers wouldn't exactly encourage him to bet the farm on Nevada anyway. He's better off placing his chips in South Carolina if his goal is taking one out of two that day.

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RonK, Seattle:

Should be heavily discounted, due to 15 Q's on poverty (Edwards signature issue) followed by 1 Q on politics.

Did manage to tweak Edwards into the lead in pollster.com IA composite, though.

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Chris S.:

It's only the *Republican* primary in SC that well be held the same day as the NV caucus. The Democratic primary in SC doesn't take place until a week and a half after NV. On the Dem. side, NV will presumably be the third state to vote, following IA and NH (though IA and NH haven't officially scheduled their caucus/primary dates yet). In fact, NV may be the first state to actually award delegates on the Democratic side. If IA and NH go earlier than the DNC allows (as they probably will), then their contests won't actually count towards awarding delegates.

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Paul:

Compare R2K August numbers with R2K March numbers for Republicans: Giuliani down 20; McCain down 10 (I thought there was some hope here - now appears only SC could be a win for McCain in January); Romney up 24 (must be spending very heavily and is obviously pressing his campaign in the early primary states); and Thompson up 18 (was not in the March poll and remains "unannounced"). It does seem likely that the order of primaries, vis-a-vis media hype and how long it lasts after each and time between primaries could be critical, as a baseline going into the Feb 5 day of primaries.

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