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POLL: Research 2000 North Carolina (4/29-30)


Research 2000

North Carolina
n=500
Obama 51, Clinton 44

 

Comments
Tybo:

Another 7 pt difference!

will it switch back before tuesday?

Or is Obama actually damaged?

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Shadar:

Remember, there is early voting in NC. A fair bit of it even, not massive, but it may be enough to heavily throw off some of the numbers we're seeing. I think all these polls showing Obama in single digits will help him big time in expectations. If he still wins by 12+ the press will say he blew her out despite all these problem he has had. Now if the polls are right and he is down within 7 points then it's not so good... but if he wins NC then it's not too bad either.

Indy is the major state here. If Obama wins Indy this thing is over, period. The supers wil come out in a major wave, 20+ for Obama, which will put him fairly close to finishing it off. If Hillary wins both she may see a surge of supers herself... though more likely you'll just continue to see the trickle we had seen for Obama and a slightly faster trickle for clinton. She will need to win again in OR/MN in order to really start taking over and having a real chance to win it.

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QuakerOats:

Yes, Obama is damaged. The question is how much. And NC is only marginally relevant, I'd say, unless it's a big surprise in one direction or the other. The race is about (i) the midwest and Obama's perceived weakness there and (ii) the popular vote. It's about viability, not delegates. They'll only leave Obama if he's clearly weaker AND they have the cover of the pop vote argument. If he loses IN by a margin similar to OH and PA, and HRC appears stronger in MI (and FL), and she overtakes him in the pop vote, he's in deep, deep trouble. A dem simply can't win without the midwest. Not a terribly likely scenario, of course...

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jac13:

Don't they poll early voting, i.e., "for whom do you intend to vote or have you voted?"

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JR:

THE NEW ZOGBY POLL HAS OBAMA UP IN NC 50 TO 36. HE HAS INDIANA TIED 42 TO 42. I THINK OBAMA WINS NC BY 8-10 AND I THINK INDIANA WILL BE REAL TIGHT. I GIVE THE ADVANTAGE TO CLINTON BUT I WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF OBAMA WON. I HAVE COME TO BELIVE THE MEDIA IS TRYING TO PROLONG THIS RACE I JUST DON'T KNOW IF THE PEOPLE REALLY CARE AS MUCH AS THE MEDIA HAS MADE US THINK. THIS IS MY FIRST POST I HOPE I DID EVERYTHING RIGHT. THANKS.

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djneedle83:

Only 30% of the white vote for Obama? So they think Hillary will stop big-oil and nationalize the system. Oh, they want their 18.4cents federal gas tax repealed. haha That's the biggest political scam alive today other than that we went to Iraq to give the Iraquis their freedon back. lol

Are these people morons? So they would rather vote for the world's greatest political manipulator over the soon to be Democratic nominee for president.

I must be in a different world here in Connecticut where Obama won in Feburary.

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djneedle83:

Let's face it, the way Obama handled Rev. (jerk---) has impressed the superdelegates (Ex Clinton DNC chair), but most importantly black/affluent whites.

As a result, Hillary will be lucky to get more than 7-9% of the black vote in either Indiana or North Carolina. Honestly, Obama could get close to 94-96% of the black vote in both of those states.

The Democratic party has sh** kickers too and we know they won't vote for OBama in the primary over Hillary. So, we know the Obama team is working hard by micro-targeting their favoriable locations (Research Triangle, Indianapolis, Northern/Northwest Indiana).

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