Pollster.com

Does this seem odd? That's awfully close, especially gven the flaws in the likely voter models previously discussed ad naseum.

North Carolina numbers don't budge. Wonder why Barr, Nader are not included. In a close race like this every 1% change counts...

Hagan's numbers seem to be getting stronger.

I see NC as the limit is what ground Obama could possibly turn red to blue this cycle. It would be a major win in a blow-out election, and give the Democrats some credibility in the south. Virginia and Florida would also have fallen if it got this far, and the only other major prize would be Georgia.

I also think that the Senate race is an important one to watch. There's probably a better chance of Hagan picking up this seat than there is of Franken picking up Minnesota. The difference is that Franken will benefit from Obama's coattails with a run-away win in MN, while Obama will likely have a close election in NC with high turnout on both sides, and this probably doesn't help down ticket. Hagan would likely win before Obama IMO.

McCain at +4 is consistent with 538 projection at McCain +3.9 and RCP at McCain +3.7. Obama does not need North Carolina to win. A win in North Carolina would signify a large victory for Obama.