Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: Research 2000 North Dakota (7/21-23)


Research 2000/
DailyKos.com (D)
7/21-23/08; 500 LV, 4.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

North Dakota
McCain 45,Obama 42

 

Comments
carl29:

WOW!!! This is something. I think this state could really be in play. I heard that the Obama campaign is targeting it with ads and is opening offices as well.

____________________

political_junki:

Take a look at crosstabs:

Age Obama McSame
18-29 40% 46% 14%
30-44 50% 39% 11%
45-59 46% 41% 13%
60+ 44% 43% 13%

McSame ahead among 30-44 group!
Both tied among senior citizens!
Weird stuff!

____________________

carl29:

You are totally right political_junki. I hadn't checked the crosstabs but if that is the case, this is so crazy. So sad that the only poll we have from ND is so obviously flawed. Well, let's see if someone else cares about checking how things are.

____________________

1magine:

BO losing in 18-29 by 6%? I don't think so. Disregard. Still JM's state to loose for now. I would assume he is ahead by more than this, but it is impossible to know.

____________________

starbase135:

We have seen similar results in a bunch of recent polls.

One concern of pollsters and strategists alike has always been that the numerous young people who like Obama will fail to show up at the polls ultimately. Research 2000 and others might just exclude a lot of respondents under 30 because they believe they don't fall into the group of "likely voters".

Actually, for me it all makes sense. Those college students and other young people who supported Obama during the primaries might be not as enthusiastic about his candidacy as they were a few weeks/months ago. With more and more media outlets examining Obama's flip-flopping and big ego that's hardly surprising...

____________________

onelightonvoice:

starbase-

hmmm, more wishful thinking from a goper. good luck with that, since that's all you got.....

btw, no one believes your hypocrisy/lies over here. might want to try foxnews.com though - a lot of morons over there.

____________________

Andrew_in_California:

Enough people keep watching American Idol after however many seasons, enough kids will vote for Obama. As sarcastic of a scenario coming from an Obama supporter :p

I'm sure North Dakota's younger population may show different values as well, young may not always mean liberal in these places where many of us don't have a grasp of the micro-politics.

____________________

Paul:

Pollster.com has McCain ahead at +2.4 but has ND as a toss-up state. RCP has ND as leaning McCain. 538 is projecting McCain +6.3 and leaning GOP. Since 1948, ND has voted DEM only once (1964) and Bush defeated Kerry and Gore by 27 and 28 points respectively. Conclusion must be that the scenario this year is quite different from 2004 or 2000. Montana's history and polls may present a better possibility for Obama, but ND does seem to be at a minimum a possible steal. A reasonable electoral college scenario can show that Obama needs to win NH, or MT, or ND or NV so ND could be the state he needs.

____________________

kingsbridge77:

How many electoral votes does North Dakota have? Half?

____________________

onelightonvoice:

no, a quarter. and mccain can't afford to lose it. lol.

____________________

marctx:

Are the Obama supporters at all concerned about Obama's decline in the polls? 15% ahead last month??? The western states seam to be coming home to the republicans. Think about history, and Bushes low approval rating...even Obama's BFF Chris Matthews said he was worried tonight. Obama should be up 15-20%...as stated on the Obama channel MSNBC tonight. Obama's rockstar world tour is going to have the reverse effect than intended.

____________________

onelightonvoice:

lemme just do a little cut and pasting.....ok....done.....funny how it applies to all the trolls...heh


marctx-

hmmm, more wishful thinking from a goper. good luck with that, since that's all you got.....

btw, no one believes your hypocrisy/lies over here. might want to try foxnews.com though - a lot of morons over there.


____________________

onelightonvoice:

btw, goper nutjobs, you might want to use "the google" to find out how many people are registering Dem this year....now compare to your sad stats.....oopsie, did I do that?

Guess what happens when you register millions and millions of young people and get high schoolers excited about an election? Yup, they grow up to be life-long democrats. Funny thing about young people - they don't die! Scared? You should be.

Anyways, have fun the next couple months with the worst POS "leader" this planet has ever seen, it'll be the last time for a few decades you clowns will even sniff the oval office.

Good night!

____________________

marctx:

onelightonvoice:

Goodnight. You're right about most of what you say, but the recent polls give us mega-underdogs a little hope. The closeness of the race without factoring in turnout is a little hope for the chances of the only qualified candidate winning. I will admit to you my friend it's a long shot for us. If the polls continue to grow for McCain and Decline for The Radical, we might have a chance. But you're right. It is a loooonnng shot.

____________________

marctx:

Oh, by the way onelightonvoice what does goper mean? This site is about opinions on polls and candidates NOT personal attacks. I saw the tonight show and many Hanity interviews of Obama supporters that don't know anything about politics and can't even name the current VP and a single Obama accomplishment. Who's the morons in this election. Keep your opinions about the polls and the candidates, I promise you I am not a moron. I have a degree with honors and a top ten percent national performance in my jobs license exam.

____________________

starbase135:

I makes me really sad that Obama supporters immediately start using offensive language once a poll which is not good news to Obama comes out and one makes an objective comment about it.

Even though I don't really believe him, that is certainly not the change Obama seems to be standing for.

BTW, can someone please ban posters like onelightonvoice. The people who want to discuss polls here deserve better than to be called liars, trolls or morons.

____________________

Swingebreech:

@starbase135

I can tell you that there are commenters on this site, from both sides, who absolutely make me cringe. There is one in particular, an Obama supporter like myself, who has been banned at least twice that I'm aware, and probably many more. The name changes, but the language is always the same.

Now I just skip over many of the comments and try to focus on the ones with actual information and insight. I have a feeling it will only get worse.

To submit a commenter for Mr. Blumenthal to review and possibly ban, send an email through the site.

I shall return to lurking now :)

____________________

RS:

Talking about big egos and flip-flopping:
1. McCain recoiled when someone (I forget who) asked him how his POW time prepared him to be President. If being a POW qualified someone to be POTUS, there are many homeless people who qualify, I am sure. McCain can pretend not to want to talk about his POW time for this question, but he raises it almost every other day (the the other days, the "surge"). If thinking people shouldn't ask him legitimate questions isn't a sense of entitlement and the sign of a big ego, I don't know what is.
2. McCain has flip-flopped many-a-time - immigration (won't vote for his own bill), torture, Bush tax cuts... Here's Sullivan's take on McCain and torture:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/02/mccain-against.html

Of course, you won't see his flip-flops reported much... And people still think Obama is the one with a big ego and a flip-flopper, and toss those charges around under the guise of discussing polls.

Yeah, right.

____________________

starbase135:

I was merely pointing out that recently the media has been putting out more critical pieces about Obama. Most of them concerned his flip-floppingand arguably big ego. These are facts - nothing more, nothing less.

____________________

Biscuit:

How is goper supposed to be an insult? Maybe if he typed it GOPer you would understand? Unless you think being basically called a Republican is an insult.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR