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POLL: Research 2000 Wisconsin, Gallup Daily Tracking


WISC-TV/Research 2000
(Dems, Reps)

Wisconsin
Obama 47, Clinton 42... McCain 48, Huckabee 32, Paul 7

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Gallup Poll

National
Obama 47, Clinton 45... McCain 53, Huckabee 28

 

Comments
Bree:

Wow, more bad news for Hillary. Yikes, it is slipping away from her real fast. It seems like each day the gap grows. I'm amazed that the polls show such a big move away from her. It seems the more time Obama has, the more votes he gets. It seems real likely now that Obama may close the gap in Texas and Ohio by March 4th if these polls are accurate.

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Anonymous:

My view

10% undecided

+

25% open to changing their vote

+ Obama's Illinois crew working Madison/Lakeshore urban areas/subrubs

- Billary in Texas/Ohio

+ Obama stumping in Wisconson all week

= Obama 58%
Clinton 42%


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David :

I agree Bree. I wonder if there is an analytical chart that can quantify Obama's momentum as a function of days campaigned. That, indeed, would be facinating. As well as an analysis of whether Clinton campaigned there as well and for what duration.

Although Obama is campaigning in Wisconsin right now, he has received a nearly unimaginable "bump" in polls in Texas - where Hillary is campaigning! Wow. This is something quite unexpected in terms of voter mindset and preferences I must say. What would also be interesting - if any of these pollsters would mind asking - is what sort of dynamic is going on here? Are voters switching from Hillary to Obama, or is Obama bringing in so many NEW voters, that Hillary's support has not waned in size but in percentage due to the onrush of supporters for Obama. That would be quite interesting as well.

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tONY:

Bree:
No one thought Hillary would be this close in Wisconsin. In fact, she hasn't even campaigned there. She's going there for 3 days leading into the primary. This is a caucus state -- so she is doing much better than expected.

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Norman Hsu:

Actually, tony, you are wrong, yet again.

Wisconsin is a Primary, and Obama is going to win it -> 60% - 40%

Sorry guy. Have you had any luck getting your campaign donations back from Billary? No? oops.

____________________

Tony:

Norman - your donation went to superdelegates.
And I am not wrong "yet again." Show me where you have corrected me.

Anyway - regardless of format, Hill was not expected to sweep this state.

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Tony:

PS: thanks for letting me know it's a primary. She may close the gap even more. Also you are confusing me with some other Tony. It's ok. He and I agree on most issues.

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Brian:

Nobody is mentioning that you can register to vote in Wisconsin next Tuesday and that it's an open primary. Hello to my I's and R's looking to vote for change.

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Norman Hsu:

Tony,

Why don't you check the texas poll posts where you got your ass handed to you. Hey - not my words.

If you don't even know which states are primaries and which are caucuses, well, maybe that's why Hillary is losing - her supporters are rather misinformed. Ooops....

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Tony:

Norman - not getting in a flame war with you. I mispoke once. It's not the end of the world. Only one poll shows Obama ahead in Texas. So it is unclear what you're talking about.

Brian - many Rs and Is voting for O will vote for MC in Nov.

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Marc:

Expect WI to be very close. It actually fits HRCs demographics better than Obama's. If he wins by a big margin, HRC is going to be in trouble with OH and PA which are must wins for her.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if she won. An average of all the polls only shows her down by about 4 points. Its not quite time to write her off just yet (although it would be provide me some glee).

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chuck:

Hey, remember we are all the same party and there is not a dimes worth of difference between them on policy. I have my preference but the important thing is November and getting as many senate votes as possible.

Focus

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s.b.:

Obama is having trouble filling a 4000 person arena at a college campus in Green Bay today at 5:00 pm and had to wait 15 min for more people to file in slowly.

that's not a good sign for him.

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dee:

Why are you Obamaites so ????? can't think of a good word. Sometimes I think that I am in a discussion with children. Has your intellect left you or are you just so filled with hate that you can no longer discuss without sarcasm or vilification. We Democrats are all looking for change. Disagreement on candidates is healthy but, you who so scorn negative campaigning, and who seem to set yourselves and you candidate so above others ought to look in the mirror before you condemn. Let's try to stick to the issues and avoid personal attacks.

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Rasmus:

dee,

you are referring to comments like this?

"

No matter how u Obama junkies spin it, u are not going to get enough total delegates which also inclides Sup. Delegates.
Becasue remaining Dem primaries are going to split approx 50-50 in total. That is NOT going to put BHO over the top.
BUT When ur brain is on dope, u can't do Math!"

or this one?

"

I am so glad that Hill is up. The MSM and the Obama gang tie up Bill and then bring out Oprah, Maria, Carolyn, Ted Kennedy, John Kerry et al., to attack Hill. Then the right wing nuts join them in carving up Hillary. Tuesday, we the people, will vote for Hill. Then Obama can whine all he wants.
"

or are you referring to this posts?

"It is so laughable that u Obama idiots try to push up the polls that are favorable to u and push down the ones unfavorable. U morons All polls have errors typically of > 4 %.
Obama's support is just like jn NH, and he is going to lose on Fe5 most of the states."

"

U obama the muslim supporter, he is a moron. Any christian will have Obama as a name.. sounds like the terrorist osama.

He is hiding his religion and wrong doing by giving false hope of change.

I am sick of this Obama.If he gets nominee, i will prefer to vote to Republican."


Neither Obama nor Clinton supporters are perfect, both sides are writing good and as well stupid posts here on pollster.com.

Rasmus


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Chris:

It's quite amazing how Barack has won 8 strait contests and the national polls have continuously leaned towards Hillary. I'm glad the Nation is finally going to Obama. I'm not really for one or the other, but I'd rather have the current leader widen their gap, rather than start to lose and have the super delegates choose the election. If Obama can win the rest more than 60/40, I don't think Hillary can get enough supers to takes this. And if Hillary does win the nomination, it's extremely unlikely she will win the pledged delegate count. We need the winner chosen by the people to start taking over in the polls, and on the tuesday's to come; not some washington elite to choose who becomes the nominee.

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Brian:

Memo to billary supporters: the campaign just fired
its campaign manager and Hillary-co wont be in Wisconsin until later this morning. On the flip side, the obama team has all of southern Wisconsin canvassed beyond belief and obama has been there all week. Lets face it, the greater milwaukee area and the entire city of Madison will go for obama. Proof: 76% of madison residents voted against the states gay marriage. These are classic starbuck liberals who love obama. Hmm, this is where obama kicked off the wiscondin leg of his campaign. Obama will get close to 66% in madison (220,000 pop.) and 73% in Milwaukee (650,000 plus pop.) in a city that is close to 50% black. Let's not forget milwaukee's southern (Chicago) esque border towns. The outcome we get in Wisconsin will resemble the Ohio results. The only difference is that Ohio will potentially have up to double the percentage of blacks turnout for their states primary. 19% black Ohio turnout is a safe bet, while Wisconsin should be about 11%. Hillary will be lucky to get more than 15% of that voting demo looks good for obama.

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brian:

Why the clintons' will lose Ohio a) no early voting pre-super Tuesday b) low income whites arent as motivated
to vote in comparison to obama's key voting groups c) non-existent Latino pop. D) key urban areas/high African American- affluent/young proffeisional/college stundents :Cleveland, columbus, cincy, toledo, Dayton, Akron, Youngstown. E) over 20 public universities- high % instate students f) white males g) obamamentum-peeling off voters in Hillary voting g blocs.

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Anonymous:

Forgot to mention that Ohio is an open primary and that many I's will support obama. Maybe up to 5% r's too. Wisconsin obama 57.5% Clinton 41.8% early Ohio predictions obama 49.3% Clinton 48.6%

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Cade:

Right on Brian. Wisconsin is ridiculous in the Obama upswell. I have been canvassing southeastern Wisconsin, and it is unreal - absolutely no Hillary supporters anywhere. Everywhere I go I feel like we are doing more harm than good as we get the standard "Someone already came by - we are already voting for Obama" line. I think hillary will lose 60-40 here.

I think Obama will take Texas and Ohio as well. He and his army just will have too much time to campaign there.

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CW:

I find Obama's supporters to be unbearably smug, and as someone who grew up near Chicago I know that ANY politician from Chicago is a "made man" from the get-go. So the pretentions to sainthood make me laugh.

That said, I also know that the clever ones hide the loot well. I think Obama is nothing if not clever. He's got the college kids and assorted dreamed gulled, so here we are.

The big question in my mind is, if he locks up the nomination by April, do his supporters have the capacity to pay attention for the next seven months or will they resume listening to their iPods and never check back into that politics stuff that they usually ignore?

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rowjimmy:

ARG sucks...So take this with a grain of salt, but they show Hillary still shead in Wisconsin in a poll conducted Feb 15-16:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Funny how I had to dig all over the internet to find this. When ARG was the ONE poll out of FIVE that showed Obama ahead in Texas, it was a headline. Now that ARG is the only poll showing her ahead in Wisconsin, it's not a headline.

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