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POLL: Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Iowa Caucus


The second in a succession Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby statewide tracking surveys of likely caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 12/27 through 12/30) finds;

  • Among 899 likely Democratic caucus goers, Sen. Hillary Clinton runs at 30%, Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards both at 26% in a statewide caucus; Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Joe Biden both trail at 5%.
  • Among 876 likely Republican caucus goers, former Gov. Mike Huckabee runs at 29%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 27% in a statewide caucus; Sen. John McCain trails at 13%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 8%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Rep. Ron Paul both at 7%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 3.3% for both subgroups.

 

Comments
Earl Potter:

Isn't it worth considering (after the results are in) whether there has been a "polling effect" on the caucus from the large # of polling organizations (13 by Pollster's count, NOT including the campaings themselves- which doubles that number) taking blood samples from 200k or so "likely caucus goers"?

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Brad:

I believe that the most significant variables in this particular election are unrepresented in the polls. 1) The number of individuals or households who do not have land line phones and; 2) The determination of supporters to vote for their candidate. There is also the third factor not represented in the polls, which is the number of formerly apathetic and non-participating voters who have entered the process. These factors or variables could be repsonsible for a large surpise on primary day.

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Dave:

I think the more interesting question in the Iowa Caucus would be who the second choice is among the lower level candidates. When participants are physically at the caucus, if their candidate has less than 15% support, they can either choose another candidate to caucus for or leave. There are a lot of votes out there besides the supporters of Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. If any poll asked potential caucus-goers who their "second choice" was, we may get a more accurate picture of what will happen later this week.

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eric:

I think the Des moines polls are better.

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