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POLL: Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Primaries


Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby

New Jersey
McCain 54, Romney 23... Clinton 43, Obama 42

New York
McCain 49, Romney 23

Georgia
Obama 48, Clinton 28

Missouri
McCain 36, Huckabee 27, Romney 22... Clinton 44, Obama 43

California
Romney 37, McCain 34... Obama 45, Clinton 41

 

Comments
Mike Barnicle:

These polls are so wrong in comparison to Rasmussen polls that have her up by significant margins. Clearly, Zogby needs to reevaluate his sample.

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Phil:

Wow. Zogby isn't usually completely wrong, but obviously he's far afield from everybody else here, generally in the direction of giving Obama far more support than anybody else is giving him.

Which is, it should be noted, what happened in Iowa.

Meanwhile, he's also got California going to Romney, which would be enough to drag out the GOP nomination just a bit longer too.

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Rasmus:

6th trial...

But this
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1271

California N=1185 MOE +/-2.9 percentage points Weights: age, race, gender

Missouri N=868 MOE +/-3.4 percentage points Weights: party, age, race, gender

New Jersey N=870 MOE +/-3.4 percentage points Weights: party, age, race, gender

New York N=974 MOE +/-3.3 percentage points Weights: region, age, race, gender

doesn´t look bad.

Maybe they just had bad luck in the last primaries.

If it would be true, there is a clear Obama trend. A lead in California, and even more interesting, a tie in NewJersey... Wow.
I think Obama is a little bit overrated in that polls, but not too much.

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Phil:

Except they didn't have bad luck - or at least, no worse luck than anybody else. They were one of the few to get Iowa right, they got Florida right for the GOP. They were the only ones polling in Nevada and got the Clinton/Obama margin right, but dramatically overestimated support for Edwards - unsurprising given the viability rules of caucuses. They didn't get the margin right in SC (they called a 15 point margin) but were closer than almost anybody else.

If Zogby is showing this kind of movement for Obama and it continues through Monday and Tuesday, it's serious news.

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Rasmus:

But if they are right, MSNBC must be wrong.
I don´t know, I have no idea how big the margin of Clinton to Obama really is, or even if there exists one.

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Phil:

His methodology seems stronger - 1141 CA voters to MSNBC/McClatchy's 100, and around 800 in other states. He's running a 400 a day tracking poll where MSNBC is running a 200 a day. Barring an egregious sampling error, that ought to be more reliable.

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Pandora:

Many of the Obama supporters are going to be in for an unpleasent surprise come Wed. I think most of these polls are not considering the effect of closed primaries (only democrats can vote) or modified primaries (you have to change your affiliation at least for that day).

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Phil:

Though considering the independents correctly is probably a big part of predicting CA, where the GOP primary is closed and the Democratic one is open - something that requires some real finesse in accounting for.

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Mike Barnes:

Zogby is full of ****. I wouldn't trust his poll if my life depended on it. I am an Obama supporter and even I know CA is not that close for him.

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Phil:

Well damn. Now I'm trying to imagine a circumstance in which my life could depend on whether I trusted a Zogby poll. :)

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Moishele:

You're all forgeting that Iowa was not done in just one ballot. On the first ballot there Hillary did much better than on her final outcome, but those whose candidates didn't make the 15% were able to switch sides for the next vote. At the time many candidates were telling their supporters to go with Obama to drag this out longer. Now it's getting to the nitty gritty, and people are voting for whom they want.

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Adam:

I think all of you Clinton supporters posting here should have serious pause. The sample size is quite large, and the Field poll verifies Obama's upward movement.

MSNBC wasn't even close in South Carolina. The sample size for their polls are so small that you might as well deem them irrelevant. Furthermore, these results are well in line with that of Rasmussen (Clinton 43-40) contrary to what Mike Barnicle states.

In short, post the LA times endorsement, Moveon.org's endorsement, etc., I think Obama will take California, but by a small margin. It will be very tight.

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Ruben:

While I would concur that Zogby has been closer than many other pollsters these result really seem off the bat compared to everyone else. I also think the number of undecideds is really high. I don't think that for these States the number of undecideds are really this high.

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Mike Barnicle:

You are forgetting Hispanics. Hispanics run Cali. Obama can't just win on African American support alone. Hillary has the Hispanics support. She is beloved in the community. Ted Kennedy came to my hometown in Cali and someone said to me, "What has he done for me lately?" catch my drift?

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Tom Smith:

Look at the trends. In the national polls, Obama is now within MoE of Clinton, which is a pickup of about 15 points over the last week. It looks like the Edwards supporters broke mostly for Obama. Also note the undecided are fairly large in these polls. Typically, undecideds at this point tend to break overwhelmingly away from the "establishment" candidate, this looks quite good for Obama. (in New Hampshire, Obama actually was the "establishment" candidate. The Clinton campaign was on the verge of implosion at 6:30 p.m. on primary day, but were bailed out by getting most of the late deciders).

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Adam:

Tom -- you're spot on.

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st paul sage:

wow, although the numbers are different, the trends are the same in nearly every poll across the country (with the exception of tennesee?).

i'm in MN, a very big super tuesday state which has had no polling of value. but when i talk to the political professionals around here, there is a real consensus that barack obama will take it and i can certainly feel a real energy difference between obama supporters ("woo hoo!") and clinton supporters ("she's a qualified woman, i should support her").

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