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POLL: Reuters/Zogby National Primary


A new Reuters/Zogby telephone survey of likely primary voters nationwide (conducted 11/14 through 11/17) finds:

  • Among 503 Republicans and those who lean Republican, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (29% to 15%) in a national primary; former Gov. Mike Huckabee trails at 11%, Sen. John McCain and former Gov. Mitt Romney at 9%, Rep. Ron Paul at 5%.
  • Among 545 Democrats and those who lean Democratic, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (38% to 27%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 13%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

 

Comments
ap:

I'm just curious why you haven't included the AP poll released yesterday?

I believe the #s look like:
Clinton 48
Obama 22

Could you double check it? Thanks

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Paul:

The national numbers will change after Iowa with Romney and Huckabee moving up and Giuliani moving down. Obama needs to win Iowa and made a mad push in New Hampshire. Without that happening, I still do not see how Obama defeats Clinton.

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Hellmut:

Yes, Obama needs to win Iowa. He can loose New Hampshire as long as he can win South Carolina.

When African Americans see that white folks in Iowa are voting for Obama, South Carolina is likely to break in his favor.

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AJ:

Interesting thing on both national and NH polls is that Hillary's lead tends to be based on her level of support with Obama's support amazingly consistent as around a quarter of Dems, give or take a couple of percent. Come to think of it, IA is the same, with the difference being Edwards's strength.

I wonder if the converntional wisdom that Obama needs to get Hillary in a head on race is wrong.

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Andrew:

Clinton must pay for her decision to make it easier for Bush to invade Iraq. Let's hope she continues to crumble.

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wxdavid:

Its amazing how many ignorant Political junkies there are ... Iowa uses a CUTOFF voting % system...

that cutoff is 15%. In other words If you vote for say SMITH and he gets ony 13% than all the folks that voted for SMITH re-vote!!!

Thus if Richardson and Biden were to get 12% and 8% respectively those voters in that precicent Vote again...

when polled that way-- which is called reality-- Edwards is leading everyone by in Iowa 6 to 8%

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wcinri:

Did you read the whole story about this poll? If not, it has a very interesting ending.Get to the last paragraph. http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1391

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Jonesy:

Good point, david. I think the powers that be in the Dem party will convince the other candidates to back Hillary though. Richardson definitely will, a d my guess is Biden will too.

The current article in the Wall St Journal makes Hillary sound like a winner in the general election, if she can make it that far. I think Obama would almost certainly lose. I dont see people voting for a black liberal with two years experience. No way.

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Anonymous:

Jonesy, in the eyes of voters, Hillary is more liberal than Obama is. This undermines your theory that voters will reject a "liberal" of color.

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Charles Wilson:

I think the real battle will be in the Republican Party, between Romney and Guiliani. The fake "push poll" (or "message testing" -- whatever) in which Romney sponsored anti-Mormon phone calls and then tried to pin them on Guiliani is a prelude to a very dirty December on the Republican side.

I think Romney's game plan is to knock Guiliani out with scandals, and then pick Huckabee as his running mate to neutralize the Mormon issue in the South. It will depend upon Romney winning New Hampshire, which is why he's pouring all kinds of money into that one.

I think a Romney/Huckabee ticket could be potent. Guiliani's voters won't hold it against Romney if Romney bare-knuckles him out of the race, and the news media has already seen fit to ignore Romney's fund-raising scandals and the fake push-polling.

I still have a hard time thinking that the Baptists and conservative Catholics are going to sill still for a Mormon at the top of the ticket once they're reminded (surreptitiously, no doubt) of some of the more bizarre tenets of the Mormon religion, but you never know, Huckabee might be "Baptist insurance."

One way or the other, Romney is going to have to win New Hampshire and win it big to have any hope of pulling it off, and I think the only way he'll do it is if he's got some dirt on Guiliani, real or otherwise.

Should be an interesting five or six weeks ahead. As for the Democrats, it's Clinton all the way. The Obama stuff is nothing but media-invented fluff to keep people watching the talk shows.

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Charles Wilson:

Correction: Romney tried to pin the anti-Mormon calls on McCain, not Guiliani. My error.

By the way, I think Romney went after McCain with that push-polling thing because it would have been too obvious to go after Guiliani. Also, the main motive wasn't so much to smear anyone, but to inoculate himself against inquiry on the Mormon issue and to paint himself as the underdog.

It also helped rattle the financial tree among Mormons, who are forever shaking the tree about being "persecuted." It was a group cohesion thing. Romney's pretty clever. While it didn't fool anyone who was looking closely, it seems to have worked with the news media. I think the media very much want Romney to be the Republican nominee, and will be very supportive of him if he's the one.

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Alan Abramowitz:

These results are in direct conflict with those of every other reputable national poll in the past several weeks. For example, Gallup's recent national poll has Clinton not only leading Giuliani and McCain, but leading Thompson and Romney by double digit margins. This makes no sense.

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